Juve Stabia vs Spezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti Sat, 21 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Juve Stabia JUV
3 Winner 1
Spezia SPE
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Giuseppe Leone - 45+2' (P)
Christian Pierobon - 74'
Alvin Okoro - 89'
Goal
|
Goal
Giuseppe Aurelio - 32'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Juve Stabia securing a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Spezia. The teams went into the halftime break evenly matched at 1-1, but the home side successfully pulled ahead in the second half. The contest remained disciplined, with zero red cards issued to either side. Juve Stabia dictated the tempo of the game, holding 56% possession compared to Spezia's 44%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final scoreline directly aligned with underlying chance creation, the efficiency shift was firmly in line with expectations. The home side posted a solid 1.49 efficiency rating, leaving Spezia with a matching -1.49 deficit. The outcome proved entirely aligned with the pre-match market, which established Juve Stabia as the stronger team. Bookmakers implied a 41.1% probability for a home win, a 31.7% chance for a draw, and a 27.2% chance for an away victory. Despite being the favorites, securing the full three points resulted in a significant deviation level of 58.9% for Juve Stabia, rewarding their reliable execution over the ninety minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juve Stabia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
VS
Spezia R. Donadoni
R. Donadoni
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: 48 L
Sampdoria Rank: 51 D
Avellino Rank: 52 D
Modena Rank: 60 L
Monza Rank: 66 L
Empoli Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 D
Reggiana Rank: 48 L
Cesena Rank: 55 W
Frosinone Rank: 66 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juve Stabia
41.12%
Draw
31.72%
Away Spezia
27.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.44
52.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juve Stabia
Spezia
Power Score
56.44
52.16
League Position
7
18
Global Rank
592
705

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juve Stabia Spezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.46
23.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.18
39.46
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juve Stabia +1.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Spezia -1.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Spezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juve Stabia Spezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Spezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Spezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juve Stabia JUV Home
9 matches
Spezia SPE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
4
Goals
14
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
14
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
S. Diakite
Substitution
France
46 S. Diakite
C. Dalle Mura
Italy
14 C. Dalle Mura
M. Bellich
Italy
6 (C) M. Bellich
L. Carissoni
Substitution
Italy
24 L. Carissoni
N. Mosti
Substitution
Italy
98 N. Mosti
G. Leone
Italy
55 G. Leone
O. Correia
France
29 O. Correia
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
E. Torrasi
Substitution
Italy
28 E. Torrasi
A. Gabrielloni
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Gabrielloni
B. Radunović
Serbia
22 B. Radunović
G. Bonfanti
Italy
94 G. Bonfanti
P. Hristov
Bulgaria
55 (C) P. Hristov
M. Ruggero
Substitution
Italy
4 M. Ruggero
G. Aurelio
Italy
31 G. Aurelio
P. Beruatto
Substitution
Italy
11 P. Beruatto
A. Romano
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
C. Comotto
Substitution
Italy
34 C. Comotto
L. Sernicola
Italy
17 L. Sernicola
E. Adamo
Substitution
Italy
70 E. Adamo
G. Artistico
Italy
9 G. Artistico

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Capacity
12000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Di Marco
Paolo Bitonti
Ivan Catallo
Luca Massimi

Statistics

Possession
JUV
55%
SPE
45%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 2
42 Dangerous attacks 44
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
2 Injuries 2
7 Successful Dribbles 4
16 Dribble Attempts 13
12 Goal Attempts 5
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
77 Ball Safe 88
19 Throwins 25
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

98 Attacks 91
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 80
22 Successful Long Passes 23
440 Successful Passes 325
513 Passes 404
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
15 Key Passes 6
48 Long Passes 57

Defensive

1 Saves 4
5 Interceptions 5
14 Tackles 16

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 4
22 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

9 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6.46
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich (C) Defender
7.03
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura Defender
7.2
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
6.44
13
Marco Varnier
Marco Varnier
Defender46'
6.66
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
6.66
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi
Midfielder58'
7.2
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Midfielder
6.91
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone Midfielder
7.91
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
6.24
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
6.6
76
Mattia Mannini
Mattia Mannini
Defender90'
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni Attacker
7
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro
Attacker67'
7.3
28
Emanuele Torrasi
Emanuele Torrasi Attacker
6.65
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon
Midfielder46'
8.27
Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI ▼

22
Boris Radunović
Boris Radunović Goalkeeper
6.97
4
Marco Ruggero
Marco Ruggero Defender
6.53
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali
Defender78'
6.36
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov (C) Defender
5.98
94
Giovanni Bonfanti
Giovanni Bonfanti Defender
6.33
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Midfielder
6.62
99
Vanja Vlahović
Vanja Vlahović
Attacker78'
5.63
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Midfielder
5.94
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
6.99
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Midfielder
6.65
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula
Attacker86'
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
7.52
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico Attacker
6.3
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo Attacker
6.73
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti
Midfielder61'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Petko Hristov 
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Mattia Mannini → Nicola Mosti
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Alvin Okoro
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
89'
86'
Event
Gianluca Lapadula → Christian Comotto
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Vanja Vlahović  → Pietro Beruatto
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Luca Vignali → Marco Ruggero
6th Substitution
Event
Christian Pierobon
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
74'
Event
Alvin Okoro → Alessandro Gabrielloni
5th Substitution
67'
61'
Event
Mattia Valoti → Emanuele Adamo
4th Substitution
Event
Manuel Ricciardi → Lorenzo Carissoni
3rd Substitution
58'
56'
Event
Emanuele Adamo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Giovanni Bonfanti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marco Varnier → Salim Diakité
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Christian Pierobon → Emanuele Torrasi
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Giuseppe Leone
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+2'
37'
Event
Pietro Beruatto
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Giuseppe Aurelio
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Juve Stabia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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