FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach has finished in an entertaining 3-3 draw. The game was evenly poised at the break with a 2-2 scoreline, and the second half saw both sides add another goal to ultimately share the points. This outcome failed to align with pre-match market expectations. FC Köln entered as favorites with a 41.4% implied win probability, while Mönchengladbach held a 30.7% chance. The resulting draw represented a significant deviation from these projections, ultimately favoring Borussia Mönchengladbach relative to the pre-game odds. On the pitch, FC Köln edged the underlying metrics with 51% possession compared to the visitors' 49%. The hosts also generated a superior 1.57 expected goals (xG) against Mönchengladbach's 0.93 xG. Despite this statistical advantage, the final result was not consistent with the xG data, even though the overall efficiency shift remained in line with typical trends. The match dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card shown to FC Köln. This sending-off created a notable second-half distortion, shifting the balance of play and allowing Mönchengladbach to hold on for a hard-fought draw.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Borussia Mönchengladbach showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Team Power Ranking
i
62.17
76.22
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Köln
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Köln
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:48+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
FC Köln
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 3:30 PM
Venue: Away
Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
Heidenheim
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary