Hearts vs Dundee Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tynecastle Park Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Hearts Hearts
1 Winner 0
Dundee DUD
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Oisin McEntee - 77'
Goal
|
Frankie Kent 90+1' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished, with Hearts securing a 1-0 victory over Dundee after a scoreless first half. Going into the game, Hearts were the clear favorites with a 68.1% pre-match market probability of winning, compared to just 11.9% for Dundee and a 20% chance of a draw. Ultimately, the full-time result aligned perfectly with this pre-match market, though Hearts experienced a significant deviation level of 31.9% to secure the points. The underlying metrics further supported the home side's triumph. Hearts controlled the tempo with 57% possession compared to Dundee's 43%. The final outcome was entirely consistent with the expected goals (xG) data, as Hearts generated 1.08 xG against Dundee's 0.65. Overall, the teams' efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections. Despite their statistical superiority, the match was not without complications for the hosts. Hearts had to navigate a notable red card distortion after suffering a dismissal during the contest. Nevertheless, the ten men held firm, ensuring that Dundee could not capitalize on their numerical advantage, which ultimately cemented a deserved win for the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hearts showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
VS
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 54 L
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 60 D
Motherwell Rank: 69 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 3 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
68.11%
Draw
19.95%
Away Dundee
11.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.87
59.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Dundee
Power Score
72.87
59.22
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
147
509

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Dundee

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.72
22.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.09
32.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hearts +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Dundee
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hearts
vs
Dundee
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hearts Dundee
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hearts Dundee
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hearts
Dundee
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts Hearts Home
29 matches
Dundee DUD Away
Match Record
16
Wins
10
3
Draws
3
10
Losses
16
Goals
45
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
45
+20
Goal Difference
-20
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
O. McEntee
Republic of Ireland
31 O. McEntee
F. Kent
England
2 F. Kent
M. Steinwender
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
J. Mccart
Scotland
5 J. Mccart
J. Altena
Substitution
Netherlands
23 J. Altena
M. Leonard
Scotland
49 M. Leonard
C. Devlin
Substitution
Australia
14 (C) C. Devlin
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
C. Soares Braga
Substitution
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
P. Kabore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
11 P. Kabore
J. McCracken
Scotland
1 J. McCracken
D. Wright
England
7 D. Wright
L. Graham
Scotland
22 L. Graham
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
B. Halliday
England
16 B. Halliday
E. Hamilton
Scotland
48 (C) E. Hamilton
T. Yogane
Substitution
England
17 T. Yogane
J. Westley
Substitution
England
19 J. Westley
F. Robertson
Substitution
Scotland
10 F. Robertson
C. Congreve
Substitution
Wales
20 C. Congreve
A. Hay
Substitution
England
11 A. Hay

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
Capacity
20099
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Don Robertson
Ross MacLeod
Colin Drummond
Peter Stuart

Statistics

Possession
Hearts
55%
DUD
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 4
53 Dangerous attacks 30
57 Possession 43
4 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

27 Successful Headers 33
61 Ball Safe 73
6 Goal Kicks 11
15 Dribble Attempts 12
18 Throwins 23
8 Successful Dribbles 4
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

108 Attacks 99
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

380 Successful Passes 254
50 Long Passes 62
83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
9 Key Passes 3
456 Passes 343
18 Successful Long Passes 24
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

6 Interceptions 7
21 Tackles 17
1 Saves 5

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 19
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.69
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent Defender
7.17
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart Defender
7.28
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
6.92
31
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Defender
7.86
14
Cammy Devlin
Cammy Devlin (C) Midfielder
6.86
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime
Midfielder76'
6.49
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Midfielder
6.48
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal
Midfielder54'
6.93
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
7.86
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
6.84
17
Alan Forrest
Alan Forrest
Attacker86'
6.56
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
7.4
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov
Midfielder86'
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore Attacker
6.39
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland
Attacker54'
7.19
Referee : Don Robertson

Starting XI ▼

1
Jon McCracken
Jon McCracken Goalkeeper
7.22
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
7.12
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Defender
6.34
16
Brad Halliday
Brad Halliday Defender
6.63
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Defender
7.07
10
Finlay Robertson
Finlay Robertson Midfielder
6.89
28
Callum Jones
Callum Jones
Midfielder77'
6.65
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Midfielder
6.33
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly
Attacker63'
6.36
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley Midfielder
6.6
24
Joel Cotterill
Joel Cotterill
Midfielder63'
6.52
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
6.28
25
Scott Wright
Scott Wright
Attacker71'
6.4
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton (C) Midfielder
6.82
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay Attacker
6.87
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray
Attacker72'
6.48

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Frankie Kent
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+1'
Event
Islam Chesnokov → Cláudio Braga
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Alan Forrest → Alexandros Kyziridis
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Marc Leonard
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Oisin McEntee
Header / 1st Goal
77'
77'
Event
Callum Jones → Finlay Robertson
8th Substitution
Event
Beni Baningime → Cammy Devlin
7th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Charlie Reilly
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Simon Murray → Ashley Hay
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Scott Wright → Cameron Congreve
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Joel Cotterill → Joe Westley
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Charlie Reilly → Tony Yogane
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Cameron Congreve
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Blair Spittal → Jordi Altena
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Lawrence Shankland → Pierre Landry Kabore
1st Substitution
54'
1ST-HALF
Event
Frankie Kent
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+4'

Match Commentary

90
Red Card Red Card Important
Frankie Kent from Heart of Midlothian received a red card in the 91st minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Alan Forrest of Heart of Midlothian is being substituted in the 86th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Islam Chesnokov is being substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 86th minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marc Leonard from Heart of Midlothian received a yellow card in the 80th minute.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Oisin McEntee from Heart of Midlothian finds the back of the net, scoring a goal in the 77th minute.
77
Substitution Substitution
Callum Jones from Dundee is being substituted in the 77th minute.
76
Substitution Substitution
Beni Baningime has been substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 76th minute.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charlie Reilly from Dundee received a yellow card in the 76th minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Simon Murray of Dundee is being substituted in the 72nd minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Scott Wright from Dundee has been substituted in the 71st minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Charlie Reilly from Dundee is being substituted out of the match at the 63rd minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Joel Cotterill from Dundee is being substituted off the field at the 63rd minute.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cameron Congreve from Dundee receives a yellow card in the 57th minute.
54
Substitution Substitution
Blair Spittal of Heart of Midlothian is being substituted in the 54th minute.
54
Substitution Substitution
Lawrence Shankland of Heart of Midlothian has been substituted in the 54th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hearts exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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