Kilmarnock vs Livingston Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Kilmarnock KIL
2 Winner 0
Livingston LIV
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Joe Hugill - 25'
Findlay Curtis - 77'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Brooklyn Kabongolo 84'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Kilmarnock securing a 2-0 victory over Livingston. Kilmarnock led 1-0 at half-time before adding a second goal to seal the win. Heading into the fixture, the home side were the pre-match favorites with a 51.4% probability of winning, compared to a 25.5% chance for a draw and 23.1% for a Livingston upset. The final result aligned perfectly with this pre-match market, producing a significant deviation level of 48.6% centered around Kilmarnock. Although Livingston controlled the majority of the ball with 58% possession to Kilmarnock's 42%, the hosts were far more effective with their chances. The final outcome was entirely consistent with the expected goals (xG), as Kilmarnock generated 1.76 xG against Livingston's 0.99. Furthermore, the efficiency shift for both sides remained in line with the overall match metrics. Livingston’s attempts to recover were severely hampered by a sending-off. The away side received a red card, causing a second-half red card distortion that ultimately shifted the game's dynamic. This numerical disadvantage prevented Livingston from capitalizing on their possession, allowing Kilmarnock to comfortably close out the clean sheet and take the victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kilmarnock showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.42
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 73 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Dundee United Rank: 63 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
St. Mirren Rank: 58 D
Rangers Rank: 77 D
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
51.42%
Draw
25.47%
Away Livingston
23.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.35
51.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Livingston
Power Score
57.35
51.65
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
566
670

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Livingston

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Livingston

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Livingston
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.60
20.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.43
45.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kilmarnock +2.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Livingston -2.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Livingston
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kilmarnock
vs
Livingston
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kilmarnock Livingston
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Livingston
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Kilmarnock
Livingston
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
20 matches
Livingston LIV Away
Match Record
9
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
9
Goals
29
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
29
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
K. Roos
Netherlands
13 K. Roos
J. Brandon
Scotland
2 J. Brandon
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
R. Deas
Scotland
6 (C) R. Deas
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
L. Polworth
Substitution
Scotland
31 L. Polworth
A. Tshibola
Substitution
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
F. Curtis
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
G. Kiltie
Substitution
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
England
44 J. Hugill
M. Watkins
Substitution
Wales
23 M. Watkins
J. Prior
France
28 J. Prior
D. Finlayson
Northern Ireland
19 D. Finlayson
D. Wilson
Substitution
Scotland
27 (C) D. Wilson
B. Kabongolo
England
23 B. Kabongolo
C. Montaño Castillo
Colombia
26 C. Montaño Castillo
M. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
25 M. Tait
S. Pittman
Substitution
Scotland
8 S. Pittman
M. Sylla
France
24 M. Sylla
C. Kerr
Scotland
2 C. Kerr
J. Nouble
Substitution
England
7 J. Nouble
R. Muirhead
Substitution
Scotland
9 R. Muirhead

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Rugby Park
Capacity
18128
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ryan Lee
Frank Connor
Ross Nelson
Jamie Wilkie

Statistics

Possession
KIL
44%
LIV
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 8
43 Dangerous attacks 37
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

65 Ball Safe 83
2 Assists 0
37 Throwins 17
11 Goal Kicks 9
16 Successful Headers 24
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
12 Dribble Attempts 16
6 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 117
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

273 Successful Passes 411
76 Successful Passes Percentage 81
357 Passes 508
51 Long Passes 56
12 Key Passes 5
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
16 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

10 Interceptions 11
20 Tackles 17
1 Saves 2

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

13
Kelle Roos
Kelle Roos Goalkeeper
6.69
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Defender
6.95
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas (C) Defender
6.84
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
6.83
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
6.34
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson
Defender67'
6.43
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
7.17
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie
Midfielder79'
6.48
31
Liam Polworth
Liam Polworth Midfielder
6.38
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery
Midfielder67'
6.57
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
6.81
8
Brad Joseph Lyons
Brad Joseph Lyons
Midfielder56'
6.97
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
8.14
23
Marley Watkins
Marley Watkins Attacker
7.16
12
David Watson
David Watson
Midfielder56'
6.56
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
8.1
Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.9
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Defender
6.88
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Defender
6.04
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson (C) Defender
6.6
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield
Midfielder72'
6.47
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr Midfielder
6.74
8
Scott Pittman
Scott Pittman Midfielder
6.76
20
Emmanuel Danso
Emmanuel Danso
Midfielder72'
6.55
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Midfielder
7.15
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait Midfielder
6.59
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith
Midfielder63'
6.59
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Midfielder
6.94
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
7.05
18
Jeremy Bokila
Jeremy Bokila
Attacker72'
6.37
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead Attacker
7.03
10
B. McKay
B. McKay
Midfielder63'
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
83'
Event
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Card adjusted
Event
Rory McKenzie → Greg Kiltie
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
72'
Event
Emmanuel Danso → Scott Pittman
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Scott Arfield → Danny Wilson
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Jeremy Bokila → Joel Nouble
7th Substitution
Event
Tom Lowery → Liam Polworth
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Dominic Thompson → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
6th Substitution
67'
63'
Event
Lewis Smith → Macaulay Tait
4th Substitution
63'
Event
B. McKay → Robbie Muirhead
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Cristian Montano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Brad Joseph Lyons → Aaron Tshibola
1st Substitution
56'
Event
David Watson → Marley Watkins
2nd Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Joe Hugill
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
25'

Match Commentary

84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brooklyn Kabongolo of Livingston receives a yellow card in the 82nd minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Rory McKenzie of Kilmarnock is being substituted in the 79th minute.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Findlay Curtis scores for Kilmarnock in the 77th minute!
73
Substitution Substitution
Scott Arfield of Livingston has been substituted in the 73rd minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Emmanuel Danso from Livingston is being substituted in the 72nd minute.
72
Substitution Substitution
Jeremy Bokila is being substituted for Livingston in the 72nd minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Dominic Thompson has been substituted for Kilmarnock in the 67th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Tom Lowery of Kilmarnock is being substituted in the 67th minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Lewis Smith of Livingston has been substituted in the 63rd minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Barrie McKay of Livingston has been substituted in the 63rd minute.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cristian Montano from Livingston receives a yellow card in the 62nd minute.
56
Substitution Substitution
Brad Lyons of Kilmarnock has been substituted in the 56th minute.
56
Substitution Substitution
David Watson from Kilmarnock has been substituted in the 56th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Kilmarnock exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews