Motherwell vs Hibernian Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Motherwell MOT
0 – 0
Hibernian HIB
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Motherwell and Hibernian has finished in a 0-0 draw after being tied scoreless at the halftime interval. Pre-match expectations favored the hosts, with the market giving Motherwell a 49% chance of victory, compared to a 27% probability for a draw and just 24% for a Hibernian win. Even though Hibernian were classified as the stronger team in the matchup, the outcome represented a significant deviation involving Hibernian, meaning the final result was ultimately not aligned with the pre-match market. Despite controlling the pitch with 61% possession compared to Hibernian's 39%, Motherwell struggled to break down the opposition. The hosts generated a mere 0.48 expected goals (xG), narrowly trailing Hibernian's total of 0.54 xG. With both teams failing to capitalize in the final third, the offensive efficiency shift remained entirely in line with expectations for a low-event fixture. Ultimately, the scoreless stalemate was completely consistent with the underlying xG metrics, as neither side produced enough high-quality chances to find the back of the net. The match also flowed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hibernian showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Dundee United Rank: 63 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
Rangers Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Celtic Rank: 77 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Dundee United Rank: 63 W
Rangers Rank: 77 D
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 13 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
48.99%
Draw
26.98%
Away Hibernian
24.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.85
69.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Hibernian
Power Score
67.85
69.01
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
249
217

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Hibernian

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hibernian
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
13.20
23.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.72
13.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motherwell -0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Hibernian +0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
Hibernian
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motherwell
vs
Hibernian
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell Hibernian
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell Hibernian
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Motherwell
Hibernian
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
56 matches
Hibernian HIB Away
Match Record
19
Wins
24
13
Draws
13
24
Losses
19
Goals
74
Goals Scored
95
95
Goals Conceded
74
-21
Goal Difference
+21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
P. McGinn
Scotland
16 (C) P. McGinn
S. Welsh
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
T. Sparrow
Substitution
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
O. Priestman
Substitution
Australia
25 O. Priestman
L. Fadinger
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
C. Slattery
England
8 C. Slattery
T. Maswanhise
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
E. Just
Substitution
New Zealand
21 E. Just
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
J. Obita
England
21 J. Obita
R. Bushiri
Belgium
33 R. Bushiri
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
N. Cadden
Scotland
19 N. Cadden
M. Changa Chaiwa
Substitution
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
D. Barlaser
England
22 D. Barlaser
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
J. McGrath
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
17 J. McGrath
A. Šuto
Substitution
Croatia
77 A. Šuto
M. Boyle
Substitution
Australia
10 (C) M. Boyle

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jamie McCunnie
David Dunne
Jonathan Bell
David Dickinson

Statistics

Possession
MOT
58%
HIB
42%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0
1 Shots 4
41 Dangerous attacks 45
61 Possession 39
2 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

12 Successful Headers 12
15 Throwins 18
13 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Goal Kicks 8
7 Successful Dribbles 5
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

111 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

51 Long Passes 57
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
499 Successful Passes 285
576 Passes 356
7 Key Passes 5
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
29 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

5 Interceptions 16
21 Tackles 14
1 Saves 3

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 19
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

6 Offsides 4
7 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
7.07
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
6.56
6
Jordan McGhee
Jordan McGhee
Defender86'
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn (C) Defender
7.42
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
7.12
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
6.86
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.59
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Midfielder
6.71
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
8.02
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Midfielder
7
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said
Attacker66'
6.48
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
6.89
15
Eythor Bjørgolfsson
Eythor Bjørgolfsson
Attacker86'
6.34
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
7.22
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
7.42
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Defender
6.57
33
Rocky Bushiri
Rocky Bushiri Defender
6.92
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
6.4
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell
Midfielder86'
19
Nicky Cadden
Nicky Cadden Midfielder
6.8
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser Midfielder
7.38
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
7.04
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle (C) Attacker
6.54
44
Dane Scarlett
Dane Scarlett
Attacker68'
6.49
17
Jamie McGrath
Jamie McGrath Attacker
6.97
28
Kai Andrews
Kai Andrews
Midfielder86'
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto Attacker
6.37
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding
Attacker68'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Eythor Bjørgolfsson
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Eythor Bjørgolfsson → Elijah Just
5th Substitution
86'
Event
Jordan McGhee → Tom Sparrow
7th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Josh Campbell → Miguel Chaiwa
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Kai Andrews → Jamie McGrath
4th Substitution
Event
Tom Sparrow
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
76'
68'
Event
Owen Elding → Ante Suto
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Dane Scarlett → Martin Boyle
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Miguel Chaiwa
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahim Said → Oscar Priestman
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Elliot Watt
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
65'
62'
Event
Ante Suto
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Dan Barlaser
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Jamie McGrath
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
Event
8th Yellowcard
Event
Elijah Just
Goal disallowed
25'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eythor Bjørgolfsson from Motherwell received a yellow card in the 95th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Kai Andrews of Hibernian is being substituted in the 86th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Eythor Bjørgolfsson is being substituted for Motherwell in the 86th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Josh Campbell from Hibernian is being substituted in the 86th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Jordan McGhee is being substituted for Motherwell in the 86th minute.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom Sparrow from Motherwell received a yellow card in the 76th minute.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miguel Chaiwa from Hibernian received a yellow card in the 69th minute.
68
Substitution Substitution
Owen Elding of Hibernian is being substituted in the 68th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Dane Scarlett has been substituted for Hibernian in the 67th minute.
66
Substitution Substitution
Ibrahim Sa'Id of Motherwell is being substituted in the 66th minute.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elliot Watt from Motherwell receives a yellow card in the 65th minute.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ante Suto of Hibernian received a yellow card in the 62nd minute.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Barlaser of Hibernian received a yellow card in the 44th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hibernian exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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