Bristol City vs West Bromwich Albion Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Ashton Gate Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Bristol City BSC
0 Winner 1
West Bromwich Albion WBA
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 3:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
|
Goal
George Campbell - 26'

CONTEXT

The match between Bristol City and West Bromwich Albion has finished, with the visitors securing a 1-0 full-time victory. West Bromwich Albion established their lead in the first half to make it 1-0 at the break, and they successfully held onto that advantage until the final whistle. Although Bristol City controlled the ball with 54% possession compared to West Bromwich Albion's 46%, the away side completely dominated the attacking metrics. West Bromwich Albion generated a massive 2.99 expected goals (xG) against a meager 0.24 xG for the hosts. The finishing efficiency of the match remained in line with overall offensive creation, as the final outcome was fully consistent with the underlying xG data. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market was tightly contested, giving both teams equal 35.8% chances of winning alongside a 28.3% probability of a draw. Despite Bristol City being nominally viewed as the stronger team, West Bromwich Albion’s away victory produced a significant deviation of 64.2%. Ultimately, the result was market aligned, and with no red cards issued to alter the dynamic of the game, the contest was decided entirely by West Bromwich Albion's superior attacking penetration.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: West Bromwich Albion showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Bristol City G. Struber
G. Struber
VS
West Bromwich Albion J. Morrison
J. Morrison
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Oxford United Rank: 65 D
Preston North End Rank: 66 L
Portsmouth Rank: 65 W
Millwall Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portsmouth Rank: 65 L
Derby County Rank: 71 D
Norwich City Rank: 72 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 L
Leicester City Rank: 68 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bristol City
35.83%
Draw
28.34%
Away West Bromwich Albion
35.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.31
66.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bristol City
West Bromwich Albion
Power Score
68.31
66.15
League Position
16
20
Global Rank
236
295

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
West Bromwich Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bristol City West Bromwich Albion

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bristol City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

West Bromwich Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bristol City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy West Bromwich Albion
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.94
44.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.89
11.94
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bristol City -3.11 Efficiency Index
vs
West Bromwich Albion +3.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bristol City
West Bromwich Albion
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bristol City
vs
West Bromwich Albion
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bristol City West Bromwich Albion
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bristol City West Bromwich Albion
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Bristol City
West Bromwich Albion
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bristol City BSC Home
20 matches
West Bromwich Albion WBA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
24
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Vítek
Czech Republic
23 R. Vítek
N. Eile
Sweden
38 N. Eile
J. Knight
Republic of Ireland
12 (C) J. Knight
V. Borges dos Santos Neto
Brazil
21 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
M. Sykes
Substitution
Northern Ireland
17 M. Sykes
A. Randell
England
4 A. Randell
S. Morsy
Substitution
Egypt
40 S. Morsy
R. McCrorie
Scotland
2 R. McCrorie
T. Horvat
Substitution
Slovenia
14 T. Horvat
S. Twine
Substitution
England
10 S. Twine
E. Riis Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
18 E. Riis Jakobsen
J. Griffiths
England
20 J. Griffiths
C. Styles
Hungary
4 C. Styles
G. Campbell
United States
6 G. Campbell
N. Phillips
England
3 N. Phillips
D. Imray
England
30 D. Imray
I. Price
Northern Ireland
21 I. Price
O. Diakite
Mali
17 O. Diakite
J. Molumby
Republic of Ireland
8 J. Molumby
J. Wallace
Substitution
England
7 (C) J. Wallace
A. Heggebø
Substitution
Norway
19 A. Heggebø
J. Maja
Substitution
Nigeria
9 J. Maja

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
Ashton Gate Stadium
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Kirk
Johnathon Bickerdike
Richard Woodward
Ben Atkinson

Statistics

Possession
BSC
51%
WBA
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 19
49 Dangerous attacks 33
54 Possession 46
5 Corners 4
6 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

19 Throwins 15
7 Goal Kicks 9
15 Successful Headers 21
16 Dribble Attempts 16
0 Assists 1
54 Ball Safe 57
5 Substitutions 3
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
6 Successful Dribbles 9
4 Goal Attempts 11

Attacking

114 Attacks 116
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

56 Long Passes 66
533 Passes 463
81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
431 Successful Passes 368
3 Key Passes 14
22 Successful Long Passes 32
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

14 Tackles 22
6 Interceptions 7
5 Saves 2

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
7.26
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight (C) Defender
6.9
21
Neto Borges
Neto Borges Defender
6.79
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
6.97
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Midfielder
7.16
4
Adam Randell
Adam Randell Midfielder
6.67
17
Mark Sykes
Mark Sykes Midfielder
6.32
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring
Defender46'
7.04
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
6.43
44
George Earthy
George Earthy
Midfielder69'
6.49
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Attacker
6.23
30
Sinclair Armstrong
Sinclair Armstrong
Attacker46'
6.61
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat Attacker
6.69
6
Max Bird
Max Bird
Midfielder46'
6.57
18
Emil Riis
Emil Riis Attacker
6.18
11
Delano Burgzorg
Delano Burgzorg
Attacker79'
6.54
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

20
Josh Griffiths
Josh Griffiths Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Nat Phillips
Nat Phillips Defender
7.34
4
Callum Styles
Callum Styles Defender
7.43
6
George Campbell
George Campbell Defender
7.92
30
D. Imray
D. Imray Defender
7.1
7
Jed Wallace
Jed Wallace (C) Midfielder
7.2
18
Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba
Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba
Midfielder80'
6.54
8
Jayson Molumby
Jayson Molumby Midfielder
7.23
17
Ousmane Diakité
Ousmane Diakité Midfielder
6.98
21
Isaac Price
Isaac Price Midfielder
7.75
9
Josh Maja
Josh Maja Attacker
6.85
12
Daryl Dike
Daryl Dike
Attacker69'
6.89
19
Aune Heggebø
Aune Heggebø Attacker
6.76
29
Charlie Taylor
Charlie Taylor
Defender86'

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Charlie Taylor → Aune Heggebø
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Callum Styles
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba → Jed Wallace 
7th Substitution
Event
Delano Burgzorg → Emil Riis
6th Substitution
79'
Event
George Earthy → Sam Morsy
5th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Daryl Dike  → Josh Maja
4th Substitution
Event
Cameron Pring → Mark Sykes
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Sinclair Armstrong → Scott Twine
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Max Bird → Tomi Horvat
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tomi Horvat
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
26'
Event
George Campbell
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion took a left-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to find the target. The assist came from Daryl Dike.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Cameron Pring from Bristol City committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Bristol City 0, West Bromwich Albion 1.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after George Campbell allowed the ball to go out.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Charlie Taylor comes on to replace Aune Heggebø.
84
Update Update
Ross McCrorie from Bristol City earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
84
Update Update
Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Callum Styles of West Bromwich Albion has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a deflection off Danny Imray.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba replaces Jed Wallace.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a foul by Danny Imray.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba comes on to replace Jed Wallace.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba comes on to replace Jed Wallace.
72
Update Update
Daryl Dike of West Bromwich Albion had a close-range header that was stopped. The opportunity came from a cross delivered by Isaac Price.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Delano Burgzorg is coming on to replace Emil Riis.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Radek Vítek allowed the ball to go out of play.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Radek Vítek allowed the ball to go out of play.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after Callum Styles allowed the ball to go out.
72
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Radek Vítek of Bristol City makes a fantastic save, denying the effort in the top left corner.
71
Update Update
Sinclair Armstrong from Bristol City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Radek Vítek allowed the ball to go out.
70
Update Update
Jayson Molumby from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion took a right-footed shot from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Jed Wallace, who delivered a cross.
70
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Danny Imray from West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Radek Vítek of Bristol City makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Isaac Price.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Daryl Dike replaces Josh Maja.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: George Earthy replaces Sam Morsy.
68
Update Update
Offside call against West Bromwich Albion. Aune Heggebø has been flagged for being offside.
65
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Radek Vítek, the goalkeeper for Bristol City, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist comes from Jayson Molumby.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a deflection off Danny Imray.
61
Update Update
Sinclair Armstrong commits a handball for Bristol City.
59
Update Update
Sam Morsy committed a foul against Bristol City.
59
Update Update
Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
58
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Ross McCrorie from Bristol City takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the top right corner by Josh Griffiths of West Bromwich Albion. The assist came from Emil Riis.
55
Attempt Attempt
Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Isaac Price.
53
Update Update
Sam Morsy committed a foul against Bristol City.
53
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
49
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Nathaniel Phillips from West Bromwich Albion took a right-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to find the target following a corner kick.
49
Update Update
Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion had a header attempt from the center of the box, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Nathaniel Phillips, who also used his head to set up the chance.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Jason Knight allowed the ball to go out.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Jason Knight allowed the ball to go out.
47
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Isaac Price.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Bristol City 0, West Bromwich Albion 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Bristol City 0, West Bromwich Albion 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Cameron Pring comes on to replace Mark Sykes.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Sinclair Armstrong comes on to replace Scott Twine.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bristol City: Max Bird replaces Tomi Horvat.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Jason Knight allowed the ball to go out.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomi Horvat from Bristol City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a play that resulted in a deflection off Josh Griffiths.
38
Update Update
Tomi Horvat from Bristol City committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Isaac Price from West Bromwich Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Update Update
Scott Twine from Bristol City was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
34
Update Update
Jed Wallace committed a foul against West Bromwich Albion.
34
Update Update
Neto Borges from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Josh Maja commits a foul against West Bromwich Albion.
33
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move unfolds as Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box. However, the effort is thwarted by Bristol City’s goalkeeper, Radek Vítek, who makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt came from Jed Wallace.
32
Update Update
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Mark Sykes from Bristol City directed a header from within the six-yard area on the left side, but it was successfully blocked.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bristol City after a foul by Danny Imray.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomi Horvat from Bristol City takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Mark Sykes.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomi Horvat from Bristol City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! West Bromwich Albion takes the lead against Bristol City, making it 1-0. George Campbell scores with a header from close range, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Callum Styles, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after Adam Randell allowed the ball to go out.
23
Update Update
Neto Borges committed a foul against a player from Bristol City.
23
Update Update
Josh Maja of West Bromwich Albion earned a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Update Update
Noah Eile from Bristol City committed a foul.
11
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Adam Randell from Bristol City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
7
Update Update
Neto Borges committed a foul on a Bristol City player.
7
Update Update
Jed Wallace from West Bromwich Albion has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
5
Update Update
Josh Maja committed a foul against West Bromwich Albion.
5
Update Update
Scott Twine from Bristol City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Josh Maja from West Bromwich Albion took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: West Bromwich Albion exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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