Toulouse vs Lorient Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sat, 21 Mar - 4:00 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
1 Winner 0
Lorient LOR
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Emersonn - 81'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Toulouse and Lorient has finished, with Toulouse securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. The game remained tightly contested and completely even at halftime with a scoreless 0-0 draw before the hosts ultimately broke the deadlock in the second half. Heading into the fixture, Toulouse was favored as the stronger team. The pre-match market gave the home side a 51.8% chance of winning, compared to Lorient's 19.9% probability and a 28.3% chance of a draw. Because Toulouse claimed the victory, the final result was fully aligned with the pre-match market. However, securing this outcome still represented a significant deviation level of 48.2% for Toulouse against the overall probability distribution. The underlying metrics demonstrated that the outcome was consistent with the expected goals (xG). Toulouse generated 1.05 xG to Lorient's 0.72. Interestingly, Lorient actually controlled the tempo of the match, holding 58% possession compared to Toulouse's 42%. Despite having much less of the ball, the hosts' attacking output was in line with standard efficiency shifts, allowing them to capitalize on their chances. Finally, the match flowed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Toulouse showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 62 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 L
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Paris Rank: 69 D
Le Havre Rank: 67 L
Angers SCO Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 83 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 77 D
Auxerre Rank: 69 D
Nice Rank: 70 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Brest Rank: 74 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
51.77%
Draw
28.28%
Away Lorient
19.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.11
61.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Lorient
Power Score
74.11
61.49
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
125
133

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Lorient

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Toulouse ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lorient
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.31
14.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.83
31.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Toulouse +1.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Lorient -1.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Toulouse
Lorient
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Toulouse
vs
Lorient
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Toulouse Lorient
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Toulouse Lorient
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Toulouse
Lorient
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
27 matches
Lorient LOR Away
Match Record
8
Wins
7
12
Draws
12
7
Losses
8
Goals
28
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
28
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
S. Koumbassa
35 S. Koumbassa
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 (C) R. Nicolaisen
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
P. Diop
Senegal
18 P. Diop
D. Sidibé
Substitution
France
19 D. Sidibé
S. Hidalgo Massa
Substitution
Argentina
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
J. Russell-Rowe
Substitution
Canada
13 J. Russell-Rowe
Y. Gboho
France
10 Y. Gboho
Y. Mvogo
Switzerland
38 Y. Mvogo
A. Faye
Senegal
25 A. Faye
N. Adjei
Ghana
32 N. Adjei
D. Yongwa Ngameni
Cameroon
44 D. Yongwa Ngameni
K. Kouassi
Burkina Faso
43 K. Kouassi
A. Ebong Avon
Cameroon
62 A. Ebong Avon
N. Cadiou
France
8 N. Cadiou
T. Le Bris
Substitution
France
11 (C) T. Le Bris
K. Dermane
Substitution
Togo
29 K. Dermane
J. Makengo
France
17 J. Makengo
Bamba Dieng
Substitution
Senegal
12 Bamba Dieng

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Attendance
23011
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Guillaume Paradis
Nicolas Durand
Cyril Mugnier
Pierre Legat

Statistics

Possession
TOU
44%
LOR
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 3
23 Dangerous attacks 32
42 Possession 58
1 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 3
10 Dribble Attempts 14
9 Successful Headers 8
8 Throwins 11
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
4 Goal Kicks 8
10 Goal Attempts 5
84 Ball Safe 119
7 Successful Dribbles 10
6 Injuries 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

97 Attacks 96
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

8 Key Passes 6
84 Successful Passes Percentage 88
437 Passes 602
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
365 Successful Passes 530
19 Successful Long Passes 26
36 Long Passes 59

Defensive

10 Tackles 10
7 Interceptions 14
2 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 19
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
7.02
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen (C) Defender
6.9
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.77
35
Seny Koumbassa
Seny Koumbassa Defender
7.04
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
6.67
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Midfielder
6.97
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Midfielder
6.92
77
Mario Sauer
Mario Sauer
Midfielder84'
6.22
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.58
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
7.21
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Attacker
6.68
12
Warren Kamanzi
Warren Kamanzi
Defender65'
6.36
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Attacker
6.59
20
Emersonn
Emersonn
Attacker64'
7.75
Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
6.8
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Defender
6.85
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei Defender
6.68
44
Darlin Yongwa
Darlin Yongwa Defender
6.71
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Midfielder
7.28
11
Théo Le Bris
Théo Le Bris (C) Midfielder
6.69
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris
Defender79'
6.45
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
7.13
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom Midfielder
6.8
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng Attacker
6.58
28
Sambou Soumano
Sambou Soumano
Attacker73'
6.39
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo Attacker
6.78
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane Attacker
6.98
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin
Attacker73'
6.52

Events

2ND-HALF
90+10'
Event
Jean-Victor Makengo
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Aron Dønnum
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Mario Sauer → Djibril Sidibé
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Emersonn
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
81'
79'
Event
Panos Katseris → Théo Le Bris
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Aiyegun Tosin → Karim Dermane
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Sambou Soumano → Bamba Dieng
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Abdoulaye Faye
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Warren Kamanzi → Santiago Hidalgo
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Emersonn → Jacen Russell-Rowe
1st Substitution
64'
47'
Event
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Santiago Hidalgo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Emerson from Toulouse takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Yvon Mvogo, the goalkeeper for Lorient, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Yann Gboho.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Arsène Kouassi from Lorient takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
90
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Mário Sauer from Toulouse took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it just went wide. The opportunity was set up by Emerson during a quick counterattack.
90
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Guillaume Restes from Toulouse.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Toulouse 1, Lorient 0.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Mário Sauer from Toulouse committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Nathaniel Adjei from Lorient was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They're set to resume play.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Toulouse, following a foul by Abdoulaye Faye.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Lorient. Panos Katseris has been flagged for offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Sambou Soumano from Lorient attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Panos Katseris, who delivered a cross.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Toulouse. Yann Gboho has been flagged for being in an offside position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
89
Update Update
Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Aiyegun Tosin from Lorient committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse has been shown a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Mário Sauer from Toulouse committed a foul.
84
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Mário Sauer comes on to replace Djibril Sidibé, who is leaving the field due to an injury.
83
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Toulouse takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Lorient. Emersonn scores with a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist came from Cristian Cásseres.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Panos Katseris replaces Théo Le Bris.
79
Corner Corner
Another offensive push is underway. Emerson from Toulouse takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Yvon Mvogo from Lorient makes a save in the bottom left corner. The assist came from Yann Gboho.
78
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
77
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse.
75
Update Update
Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Arthur Avom from Lorient attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide.
75
Update Update
Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient committed a foul.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lorient after a foul by Seny Koumbassa.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Aiyegun Tosin comes on to replace Dermane Karim.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Sambou Soumano comes on to replace Bamba Dieng.
72
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Aron Dønnum from Toulouse took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal following a free kick.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdoulaye Faye of Lorient has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
Pape Diop from Toulouse has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
68
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient committed a foul.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Warren Kamanzi comes on to replace Santiago Hidalgo.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Emersonn replaces Jacen Russell-Rowe.
62
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bamba Dieng from Lorient fires a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Darlin Yongwa from Lorient takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Dermane Karim.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lorient after Rasmus Nicolaisen allowed the ball to go out.
55
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lorient after a play that resulted in a foul by Seny Koumbassa.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Pape Diop from Toulouse takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jacen Russell-Rowe.
50
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Yann Gboho from Toulouse attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
48
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse attempted a header from the center of the box, but it just went wide of the top right corner. The cross was delivered by Cristian Cásseres.
47
Update Update
Noah Cadiou from Lorient committed a foul.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Cadiou from Lorient has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
47
Update Update
Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
46
Update Update
Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Toulouse 0, Lorient 0.
45
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Aron Dønnum from Toulouse fires a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Toulouse. Cristian Cásseres has been flagged for being in an offside position.
45
Update Update
Noah Cadiou from Lorient committed a foul.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lorient after Aron Dønnum allowed it.
45
Update Update
Rasmus Nicolaisen from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Noah Cadiou from Lorient attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
45
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Darlin Yongwa from Lorient takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper, Guillaume Restes, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Jean-Victor Makengo of Toulouse.
38
Update Update
Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Bamba Dieng committed a foul for Lorient.
37
Update Update
Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
36
Update Update
Mark McKenzie from Toulouse committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Darlin Yongwa from Lorient committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
28
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse.
27
Update Update
Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse committed a foul.
27
Update Update
Dermane Karim from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
24
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Pape Diop from Toulouse.
23
Update Update
Offside call against Lorient. Bamba Dieng has been caught offside.
19
Update Update
Darlin Yongwa from Lorient committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Pape Diop from Toulouse has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
17
Update Update
Yann Gboho from Toulouse committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Darlin Yongwa from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the top right corner. The assist came from Aron Dønnum, who set him up with a header.
11
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Santiago Hidalgo of Toulouse attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Aron Dønnum.
8
Update Update
Djibril Sidibé from Toulouse committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Théo Le Bris from Lorient earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
7
Update Update
Darlin Yongwa from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
7
Update Update
Pape Diop from Toulouse committed a foul.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Hidalgo of Toulouse has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
5
Update Update
Abdoulaye Faye from Lorient has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Santiago Hidalgo from Toulouse committed a foul.
1
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Pape Diop from Toulouse takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Yvon Mvogo, the goalkeeper for Lorient, makes a solid save right in the center of the goal.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Toulouse exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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