Blau-Weiß Linz vs Ried Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Linzer Stadion Sat, 21 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Blau-Weiß Linz BWL
3 Winner 2
Ried Ried
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 2 Relegation Round
Alexander Briedl - 54'
Simon Seidl - 64'
Ronivaldo - 83' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Peter Kiedl - 3' (P), 18'
|
Red Card Nicolas Bajlicz 30'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Blau-Weiß Linz 3–0 Ried. The result saw Blau-Weiß Linz take the points. Blau-Weiß Linz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Blau-Weiß Linz 4.3 – 1.4 Ried. Possession was 61%–39%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Blau-Weiß Linz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Blau-Weiß Linz M. Köllner
M. Köllner
VS
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
0.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 52 L
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 L
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 L
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 61 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 55 W
Austria Wien Rank: 65 L
Grazer AK Rank: 52 L
WSG Tirol Rank: 53 D
LASK Linz Rank: 64 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Blau-Weiß Linz
39.57%
Draw
29.24%
Away Ried
31.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.08
45.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Blau-Weiß Linz
Ried
Power Score
49.08
45.65
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
801
724

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Blau-Weiß Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Blau-Weiß Linz Ried

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Blau-Weiß Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Blau-Weiß Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ried
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
58.52
13.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.21
58.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Blau-Weiß Linz +3.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Ried -3.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Blau-Weiß Linz
Ried
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Blau-Weiß Linz
vs
Ried
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Blau-Weiß Linz Ried
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Blau-Weiß Linz Ried
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Blau-Weiß Linz
Ried
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Blau-Weiß Linz BWL Home
2 matches
Ried Ried Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
N. Mantl
Germany
58 N. Mantl
A. Pasic
Austria
17 A. Pasic
M. Maranda
Austria
15 M. Maranda
F. Strauss
Substitution
Austria
2 (C) F. Strauss
D. Reiter
Substitution
Austria
29 D. Reiter
C. Cvetko
Substitution
Austria
14 C. Cvetko
A. Briedl
Austria
19 A. Briedl
D. Bumberger
Substitution
Austria
23 D. Bumberger
N. Maier
Switzerland
30 N. Maier
S. Seidl
Austria
20 S. Seidl
S. Weissman
Israel
18 S. Weissman
A. Leitner
Austria
1 (C) A. Leitner
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
D. Kirnbauer
Austria
25 D. Kirnbauer
Y. Nasrawe
Substitution
Germany
19 Y. Nasrawe
M. Rasner
Substitution
Austria
8 M. Rasner
J. Mayer
Austria
26 J. Mayer
F. Rossdorfer
Substitution
Austria
18 F. Rossdorfer
N. Bajlicz
Austria
28 N. Bajlicz
J. Boguo
Substitution
15 J. Boguo
P. Kiedl
Substitution
Austria
13 P. Kiedl

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 2 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Linzer Stadion
Capacity
21005
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Maximilian Weiss
Michael Obritzberger
Manuel Baumann
Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Statistics

Possession
BWL
59%
Ried
41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
11 Shots 0
54 Dangerous attacks 23
61 Possession 39
12 Corners 0
13 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Goal Kicks 15
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
1 Penalties 1
24 Throwins 22
19 Dribble Attempts 10
19 Goal Attempts 4
58 Ball Safe 87
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
9 Successful Dribbles 4

Attacking

99 Attacks 54
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

273 Successful Passes 152
41 Long Passes 67
17 Key Passes 2
17 Successful Long Passes 25
367 Passes 250
74 Successful Passes Percentage 61
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

10 Interceptions 12
12 Tackles 15
0 Saves 5

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 2
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

5 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Starting XI ▼

58
Nico Mantl
Nico Mantl Goalkeeper
6.13
2
Fabio Varesi-Strauss
Fabio Varesi-Strauss (C) Defender
7.15
27
Thomas Goiginger
Thomas Goiginger
Attacker76'
6.96
15
Manuel Maranda
Manuel Maranda Defender
6.96
17
Alem Pasic
Alem Pasic Defender
7.54
14
Christopher Cvetko
Christopher Cvetko Midfielder
6.52
9
Ronivaldo
Ronivaldo
Attacker40'
7.68
19
Alexander Briedl
Alexander Briedl Midfielder
7.2
23
David Bumberger
David Bumberger Midfielder
6.65
22
David Riegler
David Riegler
Defender76'
6.64
29
Dominik Reiter
Dominik Reiter Midfielder
6.69
60
Simon Pirkl
Simon Pirkl
Defender90+3'
18
Shon Weissman
Shon Weissman Attacker
7.16
20
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Attacker
7.8
30
Nico Maier
Nico Maier Attacker
6.9
Referee : Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner (C) Goalkeeper
6.89
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
6.86
25
Dominik Kirnbauer
Dominik Kirnbauer Defender
6.55
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6.56
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner Midfielder
6.35
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart
Midfielder58'
6.51
18
Fabian Rossdorfer
Fabian Rossdorfer Midfielder
7.49
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic
Attacker57'
6.42
19
Yussef Nasrawe
Yussef Nasrawe Midfielder
6.56
3
Jonathan Scherzer
Jonathan Scherzer
Defender46'
6.06
26
Jonas Mayer
Jonas Mayer Midfielder
6.57
13
Peter Kiedl
Peter Kiedl Attacker
2
8.15
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa
Attacker71'
6.45
15
Joris Boguo
Joris Boguo Attacker
6.19
29
Antonio Van Wyk
Antonio Van Wyk
Attacker80'
6.46
28
Nicolas Bajlicz
Nicolas Bajlicz Attacker
5.99

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Simon Pirkl → Dominik Reiter
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Mamadou Fofana → Thomas Goiginger
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Ronivaldo
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
83'
80'
Event
Antonio Van Wyk → Joris Boguo
8th Substitution
Event
Thomas Goiginger → Fabio Varesi-Strauss
6th Substitution
76'
Event
David Riegler → David Bumberger
7th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Joris Boguo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa → Peter Kiedl
5th Substitution
Event
Simon Seidl
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
58'
Event
Yusuf Maart → Martin Rasner
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Ante Bajic → Fabian Rossdorfer
3rd Substitution
Event
Alexander Briedl
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
46'
Event
Jonathan Scherzer → Yussef Nasrawe
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Peter Kiedl
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ronivaldo → Christopher Cvetko
1st Substitution
40'
Event
Alexander Briedl
Penalty disallowed
32'
30'
Event
Nicolas Bajlicz
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
23'
Event
Martin Rasner
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dominik Reiter
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
18'
Event
Peter Kiedl
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3'
Event
Peter Kiedl
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Blau-Weiß Linz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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