Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Kranjčevićeva Sat, 21 Mar - 4:15 PM
1. HNL
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
0 Winner 5
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 4:15 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
|
Goal
Dion Beljo - 3', 29', 75' (P)
Luka Stojkovic - 40', 69'
Tino Jukic 45+1' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Dinamo Zagreb securing a comprehensive 5-0 victory away against Lokomotiva Zagreb. The visitors established their dominance early, taking a 3-0 lead into halftime. This result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which favored Dinamo Zagreb with a 65.8% win probability, compared to a 21.1% chance of a draw and just a 13.1% likelihood of a home win. However, the sheer margin of victory represented a significant deviation in Dinamo Zagreb's favor compared to baseline pre-match expectations. Dinamo Zagreb completely controlled the flow of the game, holding a commanding 69% of possession while restricting the hosts to just 31%. While expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture to measure underlying chance quality, the final outcome remained strictly in line with overall efficiency shifts and pre-match market predictions. The dynamic of the match was heavily impacted by a red card issued to Lokomotiva Zagreb, reducing the home side to ten men. This disadvantage created a noticeable red card distortion in the second half, allowing Dinamo Zagreb to comfortably dictate play, utilize their numerical superiority, and add two more goals to finalize the 5-0 rout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.19
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: 70 L
Varaždin Rank: 63 D
Rijeka Rank: 70 L
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 L
Gorica Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 64 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 66 W
Rijeka Rank: 70 D
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 45
45

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiva Zagreb
13.1%
Draw
21.12%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
65.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.68
79.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
60.68
79.52
League Position
8
1
Global Rank
467
66

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiva Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.58
36.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.16
12.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiva Zagreb -2.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb +2.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiva Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 59 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Home
59 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
7
Wins
45
7
Draws
7
45
Losses
7
Goals
47
Goals Scored
122
122
Goals Conceded
47
-75
Goal Difference
+75
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
M. Šitum
Substitution
Croatia
18 M. Šitum
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
T. Jukić
Germany
5 T. Jukić
M. Pajač
Substitution
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
M. Subotic
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
L. Belcar
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
M. Vešović
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
A. Stojaković
Substitution
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković
D. Vuković
Substitution
Montenegro
30 D. Vuković
I. Abdallah Sabra
Jordan
9 I. Abdallah Sabra
D. Livaković
Croatia
40 D. Livaković
B. Goda
Croatia
3 B. Goda
S. McKenna
Scotland
26 S. McKenna
S. Domínguez Viloria
Spain
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
N. Galesic
Substitution
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
M. Zajc
Substitution
Slovenia
8 M. Zajc
J. Mišić
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
L. Stojković
Substitution
Croatia
7 L. Stojković
G. Vidović
Substitution
Croatia
10 G. Vidović
D. Dijon
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
M. Bakrar
Substitution
Algeria
71 M. Bakrar

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Kranjčevićeva
Capacity
8850
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Vukančić
Mateo Erceg
Dario Kolarević
Marko Maloča

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiva Zagreb
35%
GNK
65%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 5
0 Big Chances Created 10
2 Shots 21
38 Dangerous attacks 79
31 Possession 69
3 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
14 Throwins 12
0 Penalties 1
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
14 Dribble Attempts 10
9 Goal Kicks 7
0 Assists 3
6 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 126
0 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

53 Long Passes 46
246 Passes 546
73 Successful Passes Percentage 87
24 Successful Long Passes 25
0 Key Passes 2
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
179 Successful Passes 475

Defensive

13 Interceptions 5
9 Tackles 10
6 Saves 0

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 5
7 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

5 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
6.85
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Defender
5.46
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
5.4
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer
Defender76'
6.44
18
Khalil Ben Youssef
Khalil Ben Youssef Defender
6.03
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak
Attacker66'
6.3
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
5.24
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
6.46
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Midfielder
6.06
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Midfielder46'
6.76
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Midfielder
5.86
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Midfielder
5.92
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic
Midfielder46'
6.79
30
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković Midfielder
6.06
33
Dimitrije Kamenovic
Dimitrije Kamenovic
Defender46'
6.04
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra Attacker
6.5
Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

40
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.62
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
7.1
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
7.32
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic
Defender76'
6.52
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
6.96
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
6.64
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
2
9.45
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo
Midfielder76'
6.54
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
6.78
4
Ismaël Bennacer
Ismaël Bennacer
Midfielder76'
6.83
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic Midfielder
7.23
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha
Attacker62'
6.81
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
7.83
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar Midfielder
6.32
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica
Attacker62'
6.84
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
3
9.3

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Ismaël Bennacer
Goal disallowed
Event
Luka Dajcer → Marko Pajac
8th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Ismaël Bennacer → Miha Zajc
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Marko Soldo → Luka Stojkovic
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Moris Valincic → Niko Galesic
10th Substitution
75'
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
74'
Event
Ismaël Bennacer
Penalty awarded
69'
Event
Luka Stojkovic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Mirko Susak → Khalil Ben Youssef
6th Substitution
66'
62'
Event
Arbër Hoxha → Gabriel Vidovic
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Mateo Lisica → Monsef Bakrar
5th Substitution
52'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Off the ball foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Dimitrije Kamenovic → Dušan Vuković
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Blaz Boskovic → Leon Belcar
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Jakov-Anton Vasilj → Aleks Stojakovic
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tino Jukic
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
45+1'
40'
Event
Luka Stojkovic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Marko Pajac
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
29'
Event
Dion Beljo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Leon Belcar
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
3'
Event
Dion Beljo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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