Monza vs Venezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
U-Power Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 4:15 PM
Serie B
Monza MON
1 – 1
Venezia VEN
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 4:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Matteo Pessina - 51' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Ridgeciano Haps - 26'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with a full-time score of Monza 1-1 Venezia. The visitors initially took the advantage, concluding the first half ahead 1-0, but Monza fought back after the break to secure a resilient draw. Venezia controlled the overall tempo of the game, holding 60% of the possession compared to Monza's 40%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, and the match proceeded smoothly without any red card incidents impacting either team's setup. Pre-match market expectations positioned Venezia as slight favorites with a 36.5% probability of winning. Meanwhile, Monza held a 33.7% chance, and a draw was the least likely scenario at 29.9%. Consequently, the final draw did not align with the pre-match market's expectation of an outright winner. This outcome represented a significant deviation of 70.1% from initial projections, specifically frustrating the stronger Venezia squad. Despite the surprising result compared to the betting markets, the efficiency shift throughout the contest remained strictly in line with the final shared points. Although xG metrics were unavailable to determine statistical alignment, Monza successfully capitalized on their limited possession to deny Venezia the anticipated victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Venezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
VS
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
2.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.26
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 51 L
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Carrarese Rank: 55 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 W
Südtirol Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 55 D
Pescara Rank: 48 W
Cesena Rank: 55 W
Modena Rank: 60 L
Frosinone Rank: 66 W
Carrarese Rank: 55 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monza
33.67%
Draw
29.87%
Away Venezia
36.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.83
62.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monza
Venezia
Power Score
59.83
62.56
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
308
209

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monza Venezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Venezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Venezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.75
15.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.25
50.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monza +3.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Venezia -3.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Venezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Venezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monza Venezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monza Venezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Venezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monza MON Home
5 matches
Venezia VEN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
5
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Lucchesi
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
P. Ciurria
Substitution
Italy
26 P. Ciurria
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Substitution
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
M. Pessina
Italy
32 (C) M. Pessina
H. Azevedo Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
8 H. Azevedo Júnior
P. Dentello Azzi
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
P. Cutrone
Substitution
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna
F. Stankovic
Serbia
1 F. Stankovic
M. Sverko
Croatia
33 M. Sverko
M. Svoboda
Austria
30 (C) M. Svoboda
J. Schingtienne
Belgium
3 J. Schingtienne
R. Haps
Substitution
Suriname
5 R. Haps
I. Doumbia
Italy
8 I. Doumbia
G. Busio
United States
6 G. Busio
E. Pérez Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
A. Hainaut
France
18 A. Hainaut
A. Adorante
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Adorante
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
10 J. Zamora

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
U-Power Stadium
Capacity
18568
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida
Marco Ceccon
Federico Dionisi
Vittorio Di Gioia

Statistics

Possession
MON
44%
VEN
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 2
46 Dangerous attacks 23
40 Possession 60
10 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Goal Attempts 4
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1
5 Goal Kicks 7
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
6 Successful Dribbles 12
11 Dribble Attempts 21
20 Throwins 18
79 Ball Safe 92
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 85
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

312 Passes 492
14 Key Passes 6
70 Successful Passes Percentage 87
54 Long Passes 41
217 Successful Passes 426
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
19 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

1 Saves 1
14 Tackles 10
9 Interceptions 12

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 14
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
6.54
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
6.55
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
6.92
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
6.93
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
6.99
8
Hernani
Hernani Midfielder
7.05
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo
Midfielder71'
6.56
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.71
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota
Attacker86'
26
Patrick Ciurria
Patrick Ciurria Midfielder
6.69
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune
Defender80'
6.52
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina (C) Midfielder
7.11
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
6.92
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani
Midfielder80'
6.62
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
7.06
17
Keita Baldé
Keita Baldé
Attacker86'
6.6
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
6.42
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Defender
6.54
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda (C) Defender
6.47
33
Marin Šverko
Marin Šverko Defender
7.52
5
Ridgeciano Haps
Ridgeciano Haps Midfielder
7.28
20
Richie Sagrado
Richie Sagrado
Defender46'
6.3
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Midfielder
7.31
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Midfielder
6.83
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
7.29
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Midfielder
6.48
24
Nunzio Lella
Nunzio Lella
Midfielder90+2'
9
Andrea Adorante
Andrea Adorante Attacker
6.79
29
Lion Lauberbach
Lion Lauberbach
Attacker71'
6.41
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
7.18
21
Mattia Compagnon
Mattia Compagnon
Midfielder86'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Nunzio Lella → Kike Pérez
9th Substitution
Event
Dany Mota → Pedro Obiang
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Keita Baldé → Andrea Petagna
6th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Mattia Compagnon → John Yeboah
7th Substitution
Event
Andrea Colpani → Patrick Cutrone
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Adam Bakoune → Patrick Ciurria
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
73'
Event
Leonardo Colombo → Hernani
2nd Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Lion Lauberbach → Andrea Adorante
3rd Substitution
Event
Matteo Pessina
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
51'
46'
Event
Richie Sagrado → Ridgeciano Haps
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Ridgeciano Haps
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Venezia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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