Lechia Gdańsk vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Sat, 21 Mar - 4:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
2 Winner 1
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 4:30 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Bujar Pllana - 11'
Tomasz Neugebauer - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Paul Mukairu - 37'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Lechia Gdańsk securing a 1-0 victory over Pogoń Szczecin. Despite the match data indicating the sides were even at halftime, the home team ultimately secured the full-time win. Pogoń Szczecin largely controlled the ball, holding 60% possession compared to Lechia's 40%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning the final scoreline cannot be evaluated against an xG

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lechia Gdańsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 63 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 66 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 61 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 59 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Nieciecza Rank: 52 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lechia Gdańsk
37.61%
Draw
26.69%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
35.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.51
62.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
61.51
62.23
League Position
12
13
Global Rank
440
415

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Pogoń Szczecin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.75
35.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.75
44.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk +0.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Pogoń Szczecin -0.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Pogoń Szczecin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Pogoń Szczecin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
32 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
11
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
11
Goals
43
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
43
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:22:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
B. Kłudka
Poland
2 B. Kłudka
M. Dyachuk
Ukraine
15 M. Dyachuk
B. Pllana
Kosovo
4 B. Pllana
M. Vojtko
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
R. Kapič
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 (C) R. Kapič
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
T. Neugebauer
Substitution
Poland
99 T. Neugebauer
A. Ćirković
Substitution
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
K. Sezonienko
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Borges da Silva
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
D. Lončar
Substitution
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
K. Acosta
Substitution
United States
3 K. Acosta
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 (C) F. Ulvestad
P. Mukairu
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
Natan Lawa
Substitution
47 Natan Lawa
M. Agger
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Agger
F. Čuić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 F. Čuić

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
Capacity
41984
Attendance
17642
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wojciech Myć
Tomasz Listkiewicz
K. Nejman
Piotr Pazdecki

Statistics

Possession
LGD
44%
Pogoń Szczecin
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 10
58 Dangerous attacks 69
40 Possession 60
7 Corners 9
6 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

75 Ball Safe 84
12 Goal Attempts 8
2 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
81 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
9 Goal Kicks 8
16 Dribble Attempts 19
16 Throwins 23
13 Successful Dribbles 11
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

81 Attacks 94
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

213 Successful Passes 352
24 Successful Long Passes 26
71 Successful Passes Percentage 78
298 Passes 454
63 Long Passes 50
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

6 Saves 4
12 Interceptions 12
19 Tackles 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 8
22 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

0 Offsides 4
10 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
7.91
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka Defender
7.06
4
Bujar Pllana
Bujar Pllana Defender
8.22
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk Defender
6.33
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
6.91
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
8.11
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
8.13
21
Michal Glogowski
Michal Glogowski
Attacker90+2'
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic (C) Midfielder
7.15
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Midfielder
6.44
90
Dawid Kurminowski
Dawid Kurminowski
Attacker65'
6.58
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer Midfielder
7.03
7
Bogdan Viunnyk
Bogdan Viunnyk
Attacker72'
6.86
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Attacker
7.08
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.01
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
7.15
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
6.85
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
6.56
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender78'
6.53
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6.55
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
7
14
José Pozo
José Pozo
Midfielder62'
7.35
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad (C) Midfielder
7.04
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
7.34
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
6.59
90
Sam Greenwood
Sam Greenwood
Attacker70'
6.41
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa Midfielder
6.24
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder62'
6.89
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
6.38
24
Karol Angielski
Karol Angielski
Attacker62'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Michal Glogowski → Aleksandar Cirkovic
8th Substitution
90+2'
78'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Danijel Loncar
7th Substitution
Event
Bogdan Viunnyk → Tomasz Neugebauer
6th Substitution
72'
70'
Event
Sam Greenwood → M. Agger
5th Substitution
Event
Dawid Kurminowski → Tomasz Wojtowicz
4th Substitution
65'
62'
Event
Kamil Grosicki → N. Lawa
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
José Pozo → Kellyn Acosta
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Karol Angielski → Filip Cuic
1st Substitution
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
54'
1ST-HALF
Event
Matus Vojtko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'
37'
Event
Paul Mukairu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Bujar Pllana
Header / 1st Goal
11'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lechia Gdańsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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