Rangers vs Aberdeen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Ibrox Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 5:45 PM
Premiership
Rangers RAN
4 Winner 1
Aberdeen ABE
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Tochi Chukwuani - 35'
Mikey Moore - 48'
Nicolas Raskin - 62'
James Tavernier - 90+6'
Goal
|
Goal
Dennis Geiger - 52'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Rangers securing a 3-1 victory over Aberdeen. Heading into the fixture, Rangers were massive favorites with a 76.3% pre-match win probability, while a draw sat at 16% and an Aberdeen upset at just 7.8%. The final outcome fully aligned with this pre-match market, resulting in a significant deviation level of 23.7% in favor of Rangers, who were clearly the stronger team. The underlying statistics heavily underscore the hosts' dominance. Rangers controlled 62% of the possession compared to Aberdeen's 38%. Offensively, the home side generated 1.91 expected goals (xG) while limiting the visitors to a mere 0.48 xG. Goalscoring efficiency was strictly in line with expectations, and the final 3-1 scoreline was entirely consistent with the xG differential. Rangers established a 1-0 lead by halftime before expanding their advantage in the second period. The fixture flowed naturally without any red cards to alter the tactical landscape for either side. Ultimately, Rangers justified their heavy favorite status, delivering a commanding performance that matched both the pre-match betting markets and the underlying expected goals data.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rangers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
2.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
Celtic Rank: 77 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Motherwell Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Dundee United Rank: 63 D
34
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
34 - 15 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rangers
76.27%
Draw
15.96%
Away Aberdeen
7.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.12
57.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rangers
Aberdeen
Power Score
77.12
57.33
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
79
567

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rangers Aberdeen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aberdeen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.95
17.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.50
33.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rangers +1.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Aberdeen -1.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rangers
Aberdeen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rangers
vs
Aberdeen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rangers Aberdeen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rangers Aberdeen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Rangers
Aberdeen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rangers RAN Home
60 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
34
Wins
11
15
Draws
15
11
Losses
34
Goals
105
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
105
+53
Goal Difference
-53
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
J. Tavernier
England
2 (C) J. Tavernier
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
T. Rommens
Substitution
Belgium
25 T. Rommens
N. Raskin
Belgium
43 N. Raskin
T. Chukwuani
Substitution
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
T. Aasgaard
Substitution
Norway
11 T. Aasgaard
R. Naderi
Germany
20 R. Naderi
M. Moore
Substitution
England
47 M. Moore
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Substitution
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti
D. Mitov
Bulgaria
1 D. Mitov
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
Scotland
22 J. Milne
E. Gyamfi
Germany
77 E. Gyamfi
A. Palaversa
Substitution
Croatia
18 A. Palaversa
A. Aremu
Substitution
Nigeria
32 A. Aremu
D. Geiger
Germany
8 D. Geiger
D. Lobban
Substitution
Scotland
38 D. Lobban
K. Nisbet
Substitution
Scotland
15 (C) K. Nisbet
K. Bilalovic
Substitution
Sweden
14 K. Bilalovic

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 05:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Ibrox Stadium
Capacity
50817
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Douglas Ross
Graeme Stewart
George Calder
Michael MacDermid

Statistics

Possession
RAN
60%
ABE
40%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 4
61 Dangerous attacks 13
62 Possession 38
2 Corners 4
17 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 5
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
15 Dribble Attempts 14
22 Throwins 14
16 Successful Headers 19
6 Goal Kicks 10
90 Ball Safe 83
12 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

112 Attacks 72
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

14 Key Passes 5
84 Successful Passes Percentage 71
52 Long Passes 54
431 Successful Passes 225
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
19 Successful Long Passes 18
515 Passes 315

Defensive

14 Tackles 17
12 Interceptions 12
0 Saves 3

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Michael MacDermid

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
6.5
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier (C) Defender
7.96
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
6.68
25
Tuur Rommens
Tuur Rommens Defender
6.66
30
Jayden Meghoma
Jayden Meghoma
Defender81'
6.44
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
6.93
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
7.47
18
Oliver Antman
Oliver Antman
Attacker73'
6.77
20
Ryan Naderi
Ryan Naderi Midfielder
6.83
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
7
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron
Midfielder81'
6.39
43
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
7.63
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
7.07
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama
Attacker86'
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
6.54
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker86'
Referee : Michael MacDermid

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.05
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
6.18
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
6.69
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
6.44
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Midfielder
6.62
18
Ante Palaversa
Ante Palaversa Midfielder
6.54
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie
Midfielder67'
6.8
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
7.22
81
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen
Attacker67'
6.58
38
Dylan Lobban
Dylan Lobban Midfielder
6.93
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen
Midfielder46'
6.39
77
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Emmanuel Gyamfi Midfielder
6.21
14
Kenan Bilalovic
Kenan Bilalovic Attacker
6.39
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya
Attacker46'
6.37
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet (C) Attacker
6.42
27
Marko Lazetić
Marko Lazetić
Attacker67'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
James Tavernier
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Topi Keskinen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
5th Yellowcard
Event
Bojan Miovski
Goal disallowed
90+2'
Event
Bojan Miovski → Youssef Chermiti
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Djeidi Gassama → Mikey Moore
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Jayden Meghoma → Tuur Rommens
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Connor Barron → Tochi Chukwuani
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Oliver Antman → Thelo Aasgaard
6th Substitution
73'
69'
Event
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Marko Lazetić → Kevin Nisbet
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Topi Keskinen → Afeez Aremu
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Graeme Shinnie → Ante Palaversa
5th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Raskin
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
62'
59'
Event
Dennis Geiger
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
Event
Dennis Geiger
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Mikey Moore
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
46'
Event
Alexander Jensen → Dylan Lobban
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Toyosi Olusanya → Kenan Bilalovic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Tochi Chukwuani
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
35'
29'
Event
Jack Milne
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Bojan Miovski scores for Rangers in the 90th minute.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
James Tavernier from Rangers scores a goal in the 96th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Djeidi Gassama is being substituted for Rangers in the 86th minute.
86
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is being substituted for Rangers in the 86th minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Jayden Meghoma of Rangers has been substituted in the 81st minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Connor Barron is being substituted for Rangers in the 81st minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Antman is being substituted for Rangers in the 73rd minute.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Gyamfi of Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 69th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Marko Lazetic has been substituted for Aberdeen in the 67th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Graeme Shinnie of Aberdeen has been substituted in the 67th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Topi Keskinen has been substituted for Aberdeen in the 67th minute.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nicolas Raskin from Rangers scores a goal in the 62nd minute.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dennis Geiger from Aberdeen received a yellow card in the 59th minute.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dennis Geiger scores for Aberdeen in the 52nd minute.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mikey Moore from Rangers scores a goal in the 48th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Jensen has been substituted for Aberdeen at the 45-minute mark.
45
Substitution Substitution
Toyosi Olusanya is being substituted for Aberdeen at the 45-minute mark.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tochi Phil Chukwuani scores for Rangers in the 35th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rangers exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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