Benfica vs Vitória Guimarães Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães
VDG
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match has finished with Benfica securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Vitória Guimarães. The home side took control early, carrying a 1-0 advantage into the halftime break before doubling their lead in the second half. This result completely aligned with the pre-match market expectations. Benfica entered the contest as heavy favorites with a dominant 78.2% win probability, while a draw sat at 14.5% and a Vitória Guimarães upset was priced at just 7.4%. Ultimately, the match produced a significant deviation in favor of Benfica, cementing their status as the undeniably stronger team. While Vitória Guimarães managed to edge the overall possession statistics with 51% of the ball compared to Benfica's 49%, the home side was far more lethal in the final third. Benfica generated 1.6 expected goals (xG) against the visitors' 0.76 xG. Consequently, the final scoreline was fully consistent with the underlying xG data. The match was played without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to impact the flow of play. Overall, Benfica's performance was perfectly in line with their efficiency shift, allowing them to comfortably convert their attacking superiority into three points.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Benfica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Benfica
Vitória Guimarães
Team Power Ranking
i
87.27
70.78
Benfica
Vitória Guimarães
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Benfica
Vitória Guimarães
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Benfica
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Benfica
Benfica
Vitória Guimarães
Benfica
Vitória Guimarães
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:24+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Benfica
vs
Casa Pia
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Mon, 6 Apr - 7:45 PM
Venue: Away
Vitória Guimarães
vs
Tondela
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Fri, 3 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary