Istra 1961 vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Fri, 20 Mar - 5:00 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
2
1
1
Varaždin
Varaždin
Full Time
Fri, 20 Mar
5:00 PM
Round 27 ·
Regular Season
Josip Radosevic - 81'
Marcel Heister - 77'
|
Aleksa Latkovic - 11'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Jul 11
CONTEXT
Match is finished. Istra 1961 2–0 Varaždin. The result saw Istra 1961 take the points. Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: No major event distortion.
-
Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
O. Riera Magem
VS
N. Šafarić
1.4
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka
Rank: 72
W
Osijek
Rank: 61
L
Slaven Koprivnica
Rank: 65
L
Gorica
Rank: 63
L
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank: 80
L
Vukovar
Rank: 55
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar
Rank: 55
W
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rank: 61
D
Hajduk Split
Rank: 72
D
Dinamo Zagreb
Rank: 80
L
Rijeka
Rank: 70
L
Osijek
Rank: 63
W
10
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 12 - 10
10
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Istra 1961
35.67%
Draw
31.29%
Varaždin
33.04%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.74
64.03
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Varaždin
Power Score
65.74
64.03
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
307
357
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Istra 1961
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Istra 1961 Varaždin
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Istra 1961
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Varaždin
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Istra 1961
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.15
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Istra 1961
-0.59
Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin
+0.59
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Istra 1961
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Varaždin
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961
Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961
Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
Home
32
matches
Varaždin
Varaždin
Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
12
Draws
12
10
Losses
10
Goals
32
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
32
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:20:49+00:00
STARTING XI
Istra 1961
Varaždin
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 F. Kolić
97 A. Kadušić
3 M. Nasraoui
38 R. Kumar
26 M. Heister
A. Obando
#2970'
23 L. Štulac
5 (C) J. Radošević
I. Ayuma
#1881'
17 E. Frederiksen
D. Ahmeti
#2046'
10 S. Lončar
V. Rozić
#746'
11 S. Goričan
F. Taraba
#2487'
9 S. Prevljak
1 (C) O. Zelenika
M. Mladenovski
#1363'
20 G. Sikošek
4 L. Škaričić
F.Quissequel
#1884'
14 R. Punčec
23 F. Maglica
8 T. Duvnjak
P. Bočkaj
#1284'
28 I. Canjuga
A. Boršić
#2546'
38 Iuri Tavares
22 L. Mamić
7 M. Vuk
M. Marina
#2470'
10 A. Latković
General Information
📅
Date & Time :
Mar 20, 2026, 05:00 PM
🏆
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 27 · Regular Season
🏟️
Stadium :
Stadion Aldo Drosina
👥
Capacity :
9800
🌱
Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
🧑⚖️
Referees :
Ante Čulina
Anto Marić
Vinko Podrug
Ivana Martinčić
Next Match
Istra 1961
vs
Hajduk Split
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Tue, 7 Apr - 4:00 PM
Venue: Home
Varaždin
vs
Gorica
League: 1. HNL
Kickoff: Fri, 3 Apr - 4:15 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
Istra 1961
47%
Varaždin
53%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
1
0
Big Chances Created
2
3
Shots
6
65
Dangerous attacks
62
47
Possession
53
4
Corners
3
17
Free kicks
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
57
Successful Dribbles Percentage
38
26
Throwins
28
11
Goal Kicks
3
7
Dribble Attempts
16
0
Assists
1
4
Successful Dribbles
6
5
Substitutions
5
Attacking
116
Attacks
123
0
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
71
Successful Passes Percentage
77
27
Successful Long Passes Percentage
49
370
Passes
424
262
Successful Passes
326
6
Key Passes
12
18
Successful Long Passes
30
66
Long Passes
61
Defensive
12
Interceptions
4
16
Tackles
9
3
Saves
3
Build-up
5
Accurate Crosses
3
24
Total Crosses
19
Discipline
9
Fouls
17
1
Offsides
0
Lineup
Istra 1961
Referee :
Ante Čulina
Manager ▼
O. Riera Magem
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Franko Kolic
Goalkeeper
6.78 3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Defender
7.15 26
Marcel Heister
Defender
38
Raul Kumar
Defender
6.91 97
Advan Kadusic
Defender
7.25 5
Josip Radosevic (C)
Midfielder
10
Stjepan Loncar
Midfielder
6.44 20Dukan Ahmeti
6.94Midfielder46'
11
Silvio Gorican
Midfielder
6.6 7Vinko Rozic
7.05Attacker46'
17
Emil Frederiksen
Midfielder
6.95 18Israel Isaac Ayuma
6.43Midfielder81'
23
Leo Stulac
Midfielder
7.01 29Allen Obando
6.4Attacker70'
9
Smail Prevljak
Attacker
7.02 24Filip Taraba
Defender87'
Substitutes ▼
20Dukan Ahmeti
6.94Midfielder46'
7Vinko Rozic
7.05Attacker46'
29Allen Obando
6.4Attacker70'
18Israel Isaac Ayuma
6.43Midfielder81'
24Filip Taraba
Defender87'
Bench ▼
40
Jan Paus-Kunst
Goalkeeper
16
Samuli Miettinen
Defender
44
R. Hrvatin
Defender
25
Gustavo Albarracín
Midfielder
15
Ebou Sama
Attacker
30
Nik Skafar Zuzic
Attacker
77
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker
Varaždin
Referee :
Ante Čulina
Manager ▼
N. Šafarić
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Oliver Zelenika (C)
Goalkeeper
6.59 4
Luka Skaricic
Defender
6.72 14
Roberto Puncec
Defender
6.25 18Paizinho
6.6Attacker84'
20
Gregor Sikosek
Defender
6.94 13Mario Mladenovski
6.02Defender63'
23
Frane Maglica
Defender
6.7 7
Matej Vuk
Midfielder
6.75 8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Midfielder
6.46 22
Luka Mamic
Midfielder
6.26 28
Ivan Canjuga
Midfielder
6.66 12Petar Bockaj
6.64Defender84'
38
Iuri Tavares
Midfielder
6.67 25Antonio Borsic
6.26Defender46'
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Attacker
24Mario Marina
6.43Midfielder70'
Substitutes ▼
25Antonio Borsic
6.26Defender46'
13Mario Mladenovski
6.02Defender63'
24Mario Marina
6.43Midfielder70'
12Petar Bockaj
6.64Defender84'
18Paizinho
6.6Attacker84'
Bench ▼
33
Josip Silic
Goalkeeper
2
Sven Lesjak
Defender
16
Novak Tepsic
Defender
30
Luka Posinković
Defender
6
David Puclin
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Filip Taraba → Smail Prevljak
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Petar Bockaj → Ivan Canjuga
8th Substitution
84'
Paizinho → Roberto Puncec
9th Substitution
Josip Radosevic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Israel Isaac Ayuma → Emil Frederiksen
7th Substitution
81'
Marcel Heister
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Allen Obando → Leo Stulac
6th Substitution
70'
70'
Mario Marina → Aleksa Latkovic
5th Substitution
63'
Mario Mladenovski → Gregor Sikosek
4th Substitution
Dukan Ahmeti → Stjepan Loncar
1st Substitution
46'
Vinko Rozic → Silvio Gorican
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Antonio Borsic → Iuri Tavares
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Josip Radosevic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
25'
Ivan Canjuga
Goal cancelled
11'
Aleksa Latkovic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Istra 1961 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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