Motor Lublin vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Arena Lublin Fri, 20 Mar - 7:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
1 Winner 0
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 7:30 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Mbaye Ndiaye - 52'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Motor Lublin and Zagłębie Lubin has officially finished, with Motor Lublin securing a narrow 1-0 victory at full-time. The sides were deadlocked at 0-0 heading into the halftime break before the home team eventually broke through in the second half. Pre-match expectations favored Motor Lublin, who held a 47.6% market probability for a home win, compared to a 26.5% chance for a Zagłębie Lubin away victory and 25.9% for a draw. The final result ultimately aligned with this pre-match market prediction. However, securing the three points still registered a significant deviation level of 52.4% for Motor Lublin. In terms of gameplay dynamics, Zagłębie Lubin actually controlled the possession battle with 53% of the ball, leaving Motor Lublin to operate with 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Despite the possession deficit, Motor Lublin's efficiency shift was completely in line with baselines. Finally, it was a strictly 11-on-11 affair, as neither team received a red card to alter the flow of the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motor Lublin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Motor Lublin M. Stolarski
M. Stolarski
VS
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 63 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 62 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: 67 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 D
Korona Kielce Rank: 62 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motor Lublin
47.58%
Draw
25.93%
Away Zagłębie Lubin
26.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.15
64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motor Lublin
Zagłębie Lubin
Power Score
61.15
64
League Position
7
2
Global Rank
453
359

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motor Lublin — Opponent-weighted form score
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motor Lublin Zagłębie Lubin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motor Lublin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.23
22.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.17
22.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motor Lublin +0.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Zagłębie Lubin -0.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Zagłębie Lubin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motor Lublin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motor Lublin Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motor Lublin Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motor Lublin
Zagłębie Lubin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin Home
3 matches
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
5
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Brkić
Croatia
1 I. Brkić
F. Wójcik
Poland
17 F. Wójcik
M. Bartoš
Slovakia
39 M. Bartoš
H. Matthys
Belgium
3 H. Matthys
F. Luberecki
Substitution
Poland
24 F. Luberecki
S. Samper Montaña
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Samper Montaña
M. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
30 M. Ndiaye
B. Wolski
Poland
68 (C) B. Wolski
I. dos Santos Rodrigues
Portugal
7 I. dos Santos Rodrigues
F. Costa Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
11 F. Costa Conceição
K. Czubak
Poland
9 K. Czubak
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
L. Lučić
Croatia
35 L. Lučić
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
I. Orlikowski
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
J. Čorluka
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
D. Dąbrowski
Poland
8 (C) D. Dąbrowski
F. Kocaba
Substitution
Poland
39 F. Kocaba
J. Díaz Gómez
Substitution
Colombia
27 J. Díaz Gómez
S. Kowalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 S. Kowalczyk
A. Radwański
Substitution
Poland
18 A. Radwański
M. Reguła
Substitution
Poland
44 M. Reguła

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 20, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Lublin
Capacity
15243
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Damian Kos
Filip Sierant
Tomasz Niemirowski
Aleksander Kozieł

Statistics

Possession
Motor Lublin
46%
Zagłębie Lubin
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 7
29 Dangerous attacks 55
47 Possession 53
4 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 13

Match Overview

21 Throwins 33
6 Goal Kicks 7
23 Dribble Attempts 21
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
10 Successful Dribbles 8
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
62 Ball Safe 54
1 Injuries 1
3 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

66 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

188 Successful Passes 234
66 Successful Passes Percentage 71
4 Key Passes 8
285 Passes 330
48 Long Passes 55
13 Successful Long Passes 19
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

22 Tackles 24
2 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 22
2 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

14 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivan Brkic
Ivan Brkic Goalkeeper
7.08
3
Hervé Matthys
Hervé Matthys Defender
6.74
17
Filip Wojcik
Filip Wojcik Defender
6.6
24
Filip Luberecki
Filip Luberecki Defender
7.4
42
Bright Ede
Bright Ede
Defender76'
6.57
39
Marek Bartos
Marek Bartos Defender
7.18
6
Sergi Samper
Sergi Samper Midfielder
6.53
21
Jakub Labojko
Jakub Labojko
Midfielder68'
6.64
7
Ivo Rodrigues
Ivo Rodrigues Midfielder
6.57
11
Fábio Ronaldo
Fábio Ronaldo Midfielder
6.13
19
Bradly van Hoeven
Bradly van Hoeven
Midfielder68'
6.29
30
Mbaye Ndiaye
Mbaye Ndiaye Midfielder
7
29
Thomas Santos
Thomas Santos
Defender86'
68
Bartosz Wolski
Bartosz Wolski (C) Midfielder
7.17
9
Karol Czubak
Karol Czubak Attacker
7.25
Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
6.19
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
7.03
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Defender
7.04
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
6.08
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic Defender
7.45
7
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Sebastian Kowalczyk Midfielder
6.11
26
Jakub Kolan
Jakub Kolan
Midfielder62'
6.46
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski (C) Midfielder
6.62
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Midfielder
6.68
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó
Attacker62'
6.98
27
Jesus Diaz
Jesus Diaz Midfielder
6.63
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder62'
6.44
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba Midfielder
6.88
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker76'
6.48
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Attacker
6.55
—
Marcel Regula
76'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Thomas Santos → Mbaye Ndiaye
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Bright Ede → Filip Luberecki
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Filip Kocaba
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Mihael Mlinaric → Marcel Regula
8th Substitution
Event
Bradly van Hoeven → Fábio Ronaldo
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Jakub Labojko → Sergi Samper
5th Substitution
68'
62'
Event
Jakub Kolan → Sebastian Kowalczyk
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Levente Szabó → Adam Radwanski
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Jesus Diaz
2nd Substitution
Event
Mbaye Ndiaye
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
52'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Motor Lublin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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