Genoa vs Udinese Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Fri, 20 Mar - 7:45 PM
Serie A
Genoa GEN
0 Winner 2
Udinese UDI
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 7:45 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp - 66'
Keinan Davis - 90+6'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded, with Udinese securing a 2-0 away victory over Genoa. This full-time result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Genoa entered the fixture as the stronger team and favorites with a 43.2% implied probability of winning, while a draw stood at 30.6%. By claiming the victory with only a 26.2% pre-market probability, Udinese ensured the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. After a scoreless first half left the teams even at the break, the underlying metrics heavily favored the hosts. Genoa controlled the tempo with 62% possession compared to Udinese's 38%. The home side also generated more dangerous chances, accumulating 1.3 expected goals (xG) against Udinese's 0.85 xG. Because Genoa failed to capitalize on their territorial and statistical advantages, the final result was ultimately not consistent with the xG data. Despite the disparity between the underlying metrics and the final scoreline, the efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard play. Furthermore, the match was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were shown to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Udinese showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
VS
Udinese K. Runjaic
K. Runjaic
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 74 W
Cremonese Rank: 68 D
Napoli Rank: 87 L
Lazio Rank: 81 L
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Parma Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 79 L
Sassuolo Rank: 74 L
Lecce Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 84 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Inter Rank: 90 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 12 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genoa
43.21%
Draw
30.63%
Away Udinese
26.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.44
74.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genoa
Udinese
Power Score
74.44
74.12
League Position
13
11
Global Rank
116
124

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Udinese — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genoa Udinese

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Udinese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Genoa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Udinese
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.87
17.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.89
33.87
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Genoa +1.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Udinese -1.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Genoa
Udinese
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Genoa
vs
Udinese
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Genoa Udinese
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Genoa Udinese
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Genoa
Udinese
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genoa GEN Home
35 matches
Udinese UDI Away
Match Record
13
Wins
10
12
Draws
12
10
Losses
13
Goals
49
Goals Scored
46
46
Goals Conceded
49
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
J. Bijlow
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
L. Skiri Oestigaard
Norway
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Substitution
Mexico
22 (C) J. Vásquez Ibarra
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
M. Frendrup
Substitution
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
R. Malinovskiy
Ukraine
17 R. Malinovskiy
B. Norton-Cuffy
England
15 B. Norton-Cuffy
J. Messias
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. Messias
V. Carvalho Oliveira
Substitution
Portugal
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
L. Colombo
Substitution
Italy
29 L. Colombo
M. Okoye
Nigeria
40 M. Okoye
O. Solet Bomawoko
France
28 O. Solet Bomawoko
C. Kabasele
Belgium
27 C. Kabasele
T. Kristensen
Denmark
31 T. Kristensen
J. Karlström
Sweden
8 (C) J. Karlström
H. Kamara
Substitution
Gambia
11 H. Kamara
A. Atta
Substitution
France
14 A. Atta
J. Ekkelenkamp
Substitution
Netherlands
32 J. Ekkelenkamp
K. Ehizibue
Substitution
Netherlands
19 K. Ehizibue
K. Davis
England
9 K. Davis
N. Zaniolo
Substitution
Italy
10 N. Zaniolo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 20, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity
33205
Attendance
30895
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Giorgio Peretti
Simone Biffi
Giuseppe Collu
Niccolò Turrini

Statistics

Possession
GEN
62%
UDI
38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
18 Shots 6
60 Dangerous attacks 16
62 Possession 38
7 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 17
13 Dribble Attempts 16
22 Throwins 13
3 Goal Kicks 11
2 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Successful Dribbles 5
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
59 Ball Safe 51
13 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

118 Attacks 60
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

450 Passes 283
14 Key Passes 4
54 Long Passes 42
83 Successful Passes Percentage 73
374 Successful Passes 208
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
26 Successful Long Passes 12

Defensive

18 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 2

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 7
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

5 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Giuseppe Collu

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.23
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
6.65
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez (C) Defender
7.05
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín
Defender84'
6.29
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
5.86
15
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
Brooke Norton-Cuffy Midfielder
7.17
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi Midfielder
8.1
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
7.17
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Midfielder84'
6.45
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.82
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Attacker
6.15
18
Caleb Ekuban
Caleb Ekuban
Attacker72'
6.29
10
Junior Messias
Junior Messias Attacker
6.78
8
Tommaso Baldanzi
Tommaso Baldanzi
Midfielder60'
6.5
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Attacker
6.49
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator
Attacker72'
6.63
Referee : Giuseppe Collu

Starting XI ▼

40
Maduka Okoye
Maduka Okoye Goalkeeper
6.75
27
Christian Kabasele
Christian Kabasele Defender
7.21
28
Oumar Solet
Oumar Solet Defender
6.85
31
Thomas Kristensen
Thomas Kristensen Defender
7.18
8
Jesper Karlström
Jesper Karlström (C) Midfielder
6.81
11
Hassane Kamara
Hassane Kamara Midfielder
6.63
20
Juan Arizala
Juan Arizala
Midfielder84'
6.4
14
Arthur Atta
Arthur Atta Midfielder
6.26
24
Jakub Piotrowski
Jakub Piotrowski
Midfielder46'
6.55
19
Kingsley Ehizibue
Kingsley Ehizibue Midfielder
6.44
13
Nicolò Bertola
Nicolò Bertola
Defender87'
6.48
32
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Midfielder
7.13
38
Lennon Miller
Lennon Miller
Midfielder87'
6.43
9
Keinan Davis
Keinan Davis Attacker
7.46
10
Nicolò Zaniolo
Nicolò Zaniolo Attacker
6.93
6
Oier Zarraga
Oier Zarraga
Midfielder90+4'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Keinan Davis
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+4'
Event
Oier Zarraga → Nicolò Zaniolo
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Oumar Solet
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Nicolò Bertola → Kingsley Ehizibue
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Lennon Miller → Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
9th Substitution
Event
Lorenzo Colombo
6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho → Morten Frendrup
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Aarón Martín → Johan Vásquez
7th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Juan Arizala → Hassane Kamara
6th Substitution
Event
Caleb Ekuban → Vitinha
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Jeff Ekhator → Lorenzo Colombo
3rd Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
Header / 1st Goal
64'
Event
Lennon Miller
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Tommaso Baldanzi → Junior Messias
2nd Substitution
60'
56'
Event
Keinan Davis
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Lorenzo Colombo
Penalty disallowed
51'
46'
Event
Jakub Piotrowski → Arthur Atta
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
24'
24'
Event
Nicolò Zaniolo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Oumar Solet from Udinese has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lennon Miller from Udinese has been shown a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's Genoa 0, Udinese 2. Keinan Davis from Udinese fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the box into the bottom right corner.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Nicolò Zaniolo from Udinese takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Justin Bijlow, the goalkeeper for Genoa, makes a solid save right in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Nicolò Bertola.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Oier Zarraga replaces Nicolò Zaniolo due to an injury.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Brooke Norton-Cuffy from Genoa takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Leo Østigård.
90
Update Update
Oumar Solet from Udinese committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Tommaso Baldanzi from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Genoa 0, Udinese 2.
90
Update Update
Lennon Miller from Udinese has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alex Amorim from Genoa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jeff Ekhator.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Jakub Piotrowski from Udinese fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's intercepted.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Nicolò Bertola comes on to replace Kingsley Ehizibue.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Lennon Miller replaces Jurgen Ekkelenkamp.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lorenzo Colombo of Genoa has been shown a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Nicolò Zaniolo from Udinese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Juan Arizala comes on to replace Hassane Kamara.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Alex Amorim is coming on to replace Morten Frendrup.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa has been shown a yellow card.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Aarón Martín replaces Johan Vásquez.
83
Update Update
Jeff Ekhator from Genoa committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Hassane Kamara from Udinese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Genoa, following a defensive play by Maduka Okoye.
80
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
79
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Genoa after a deflection off Maduka Okoye.
77
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after Jurgen Ekkelenkamp allowed the ball to go out of play.
75
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
74
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
74
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Johan Vásquez from Genoa.
74
Update Update
Kingsley Ehizibue from Udinese has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Kingsley Ehizibue from Udinese.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Caleb Ekuban comes on to replace Vítinha.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Jeff Ekhator comes on to replace Lorenzo Colombo.
69
Update Update
Brooke Norton-Cuffy from Genoa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
69
Update Update
Kingsley Ehizibue from Udinese committed a foul.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Udinese takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Genoa. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp scores with a header from the center of the penalty area.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Keinan Davis of Udinese has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
64
Update Update
Keinan Davis committed a foul against Udinese.
64
Update Update
Tommaso Baldanzi from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after Christian Kabasele allowed the ball to go out.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Tommaso Baldanzi comes on to replace Junior Messias.
58
Update Update
Jakub Piotrowski from Udinese committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa earned a free kick in an offensive position.
58
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Johan Vásquez from Genoa attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to convert.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolò Zaniolo of Udinese has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
56
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Nicolò Zaniolo from Udinese committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Morten Frendrup from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Update Update
VAR Review: No Penalty awarded to Genoa.
51
Update Update
Christian Kabasele of Udinese has given away a penalty due to a handball inside the box.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa, following a play that resulted in a deflection off Maduka Okoye.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a play that resulted in a deflection off Maduka Okoye.
47
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move unfolds. Junior Messias from Genoa takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Maduka Okoye from Udinese makes a great save, stopping the ball at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Leo Østigård.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Genoa and Udinese.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Jakub Piotrowski replaces Arthur Atta.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Udinese: Jakub Piotrowski comes on to replace Arthur Atta.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Udinese after a play by Brooke Norton-Cuffy results in a defensive error.
44
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Christian Kabasele of Udinese attempted a header from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick, but couldn't convert.
43
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Vítinha from Genoa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Vítinha from Genoa tries a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Ruslan Malinovskyi, who delivered a cross.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after Jurgen Ekkelenkamp allowed the ball to go out of play.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nicolò Zaniolo from Udinese takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Mikael Ellertsson.
37
Attempt Attempt
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot taken from the left side of the penalty area.
35
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa takes a left-footed shot from close range following a corner kick, but fails to convert.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Genoa after a foul by Kingsley Ehizibue.
33
Update Update
Morten Frendrup of Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Morten Frendrup from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
29
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Vítinha from Genoa.
27
Attempt Attempt
Vítinha from Genoa had a great opportunity but his right-footed shot from outside the penalty area went just wide to the left. The assist came from Lorenzo Colombo.
26
Update Update
Junior Messias of Genoa commits a handball.
25
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from a challenging angle and considerable distance following a free kick on the right side.
24
Update Update
Junior Messias from Genoa was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hassane Kamara of Udinese has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
24
Update Update
Hassane Kamara from Udinese committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
23
Update Update
Christian Kabasele from Udinese committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Nicolò Zaniolo from Udinese committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Leo Østigård from Genoa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Arthur Atta from Udinese committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Lorenzo Colombo from Genoa is involved in a risky challenge.
18
Update Update
Oumar Solet from Udinese has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
15
Update Update
Hassane Kamara from Udinese committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Offside call against Udinese. Keinan Davis has been caught offside.
10
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
10
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
7
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
2
Update Update
Hassane Kamara from Udinese earned a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Udinese exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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