Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Villa Park Thu, 19 Mar - 8:00 PM
Europa League
Aston Villa AVL
2 Winner 0
LOSC Lille LOSC
Full Time Thu, 19 Mar 8:00 PM
Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 0
John McGinn - 54'
Leon Bailey - 85'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Aston Villa 2–0 LOSC Lille. The result saw Aston Villa take the points. Aston Villa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Aston Villa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Aston Villa 55.1% | Draw 25% | LOSC Lille 19.9%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
2.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Basel Rank: 63 W
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Maccabi Tel Aviv Rank: W
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 65 L
Feyenoord Rank: 74 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 80 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 78 W
Crvena Zvezda Rank: L
PAOK Rank: 78 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
55.08%
Draw
25.04%
Away LOSC Lille
19.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.42
77.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
LOSC Lille
Power Score
90.42
77.01
League Position
2
18
Global Rank
10
74

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa LOSC Lille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.00
20.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.21
20.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aston Villa -0.02 Efficiency Index
vs
LOSC Lille +0.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
LOSC Lille
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aston Villa LOSC Lille
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aston Villa LOSC Lille
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
LOSC Lille
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
3 matches
LOSC Lille LOSC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-20T00:09:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
L. Bogarde
Substitution
Netherlands
26 L. Bogarde
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
Sweden
3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
I. Maatsen
Netherlands
22 I. Maatsen
A. Mvom Onana
Belgium
24 A. Mvom Onana
D. Soares de Paulo
Brazil
21 D. Soares de Paulo
J. Sancho
Substitution
England
19 J. Sancho
M. Rogers
Substitution
England
27 M. Rogers
J. McGinn
Substitution
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
K. Bakumo-Abraham
Substitution
England
18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
B. Özer
Turkey
1 B. Özer
A. Souza Ribeiro
Substitution
Brazil
4 A. Souza Ribeiro
C. Mbemba Mangulu
DR Congo
18 C. Mbemba Mangulu
N. Ngoy
Belgium
3 N. Ngoy
R. Perraud
France
15 R. Perraud
A. Bouaddi
Substitution
France
32 A. Bouaddi
N. Bentaleb
Algeria
6 N. Bentaleb
T. Meunier
Substitution
Belgium
12 T. Meunier
F. Sanches Correia
Substitution
Portugal
27 F. Sanches Correia
O. Giroud
France
9 O. Giroud
N. Mukau
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mukau

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 19, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 0
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Attendance
37583
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Massa

Statistics

Possession
AVL
51%
LOSC
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 4
48 Dangerous attacks 34
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
20 Throwins 10
18 Dribble Attempts 12
12 Successful Headers 14
6 Goal Kicks 4
7 Successful Dribbles 6
50 Ball Safe 40
7 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 109
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

427 Successful Passes 404
503 Passes 453
51 Long Passes 37
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
8 Key Passes 5
85 Successful Passes Percentage 89
24 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

15 Tackles 17
44 Duels Won 42
9 Interceptions 12
3 Saves 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 16
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Defender
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen Defender
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Defender
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash
Defender74'
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Midfielder
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía
Midfielder74'
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Midfielder
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker84'
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz Midfielder
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
9
Harvey Elliott
Harvey Elliott
Midfielder84'
18
Tammy Abraham
Tammy Abraham Attacker
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins
Attacker56'
Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
4
Alexsandro
Alexsandro Defender
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi
Defender73'
18
Chancel Mbemba
Chancel Mbemba Defender
6
Nabil Bentaleb
Nabil Bentaleb Midfielder
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Midfielder
22
Tiago Santos
Tiago Santos
Defender81'
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Midfielder
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Midfielder
20
Noah Edjouma
Noah Edjouma
Attacker67'
9
Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud Attacker
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Attacker
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Attacker67'
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Attacker
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Midfielder67'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leon Bailey
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
Event
Leon Bailey → Jadon Sancho
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Harvey Elliott → Morgan Rogers
10th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
Tiago Santos → Thomas Meunier
8th Substitution
Event
Emiliano Buendía → John McGinn
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Matty Cash → Lamare Bogarde
7th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Aïssa Mandi → Alexsandro
5th Substitution
Event
Douglas Luiz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
67'
Event
Noah Edjouma → Ayyoub Bouaddi
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson → Félix Correia
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo → Ngal'ayel Mukau
4th Substitution
Event
Ollie Watkins → Tammy Abraham
1st Substitution
56'
Event
John McGinn
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
54'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Félix Correia
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Aston Villa defeating Lille 2-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Nabil Bentaleb from Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s comfortably saved by Aston Villa's goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez, positioned centrally in the goal.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa leads 2-0 against Lille. Leon Bailey scores with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the net. The assist came from Ollie Watkins.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Leon Bailey comes on to replace Jadon Sancho.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Harvey Elliott comes on to replace Morgan Rogers.
83
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Matty Cash from Aston Villa committed a foul.
82
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Update Update
Chancel Mbemba from Lille commits a foul.
81
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Chancel Mbemba from Lille earned a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort is underway. Noah Edjouma from Lille takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendía comes on to replace John McGinn.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Matty Cash comes on to replace Lamare Bogarde.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Aïssa Mandi comes on to replace Alexsandro Ribeiro.
72
Update Update
Noah Edjouma from Lille was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
72
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Douglas Luiz allowed the ball to go out.
71
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Olivier Giroud of Lille attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to convert. The assist came from Hákon Haraldsson, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Pau Torres allowed the ball to go out.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Amadou Onana allowed the ball to go out.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Noah Edjouma comes on to replace Ayyoub Bouaddi.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Hákon Haraldsson comes on to replace Félix Correia.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Matias Fernandez-Pardo comes on to replace Ngal'ayel Mukau.
66
Update Update
Ollie Watkins commits a handball for Aston Villa.
65
Update Update
Jadon Sancho from Aston Villa strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from the right side of the penalty area.
63
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Aston Villa after Alexsandro Ribeiro allowed the ball to go out.
63
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
61
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Olivier Giroud has been flagged for being offside.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Alexsandro Ribeiro conceded it.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins comes on to replace Tammy Abraham.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa takes the lead 1-0 against Lille. John McGinn finds the back of the net with a left-footed shot from the middle of the box, placing it into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Jadon Sancho, who set him up after a quick counterattack.
54
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push is underway. Nabil Bentaleb from Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa makes a save, diving to his left.
53
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
53
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille committed a foul.
48
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Alexsandro Ribeiro from Lille had a header from close range, just inside the six-yard box on the left side, following a corner kick.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Victor Lindelöf allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Aston Villa 0, Lille 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Olivier Giroud has been flagged for being offside.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Aston Villa 0, Lille 0.
44
Update Update
Olivier Giroud committed a foul against Lille.
44
Update Update
Amadou Onana from Aston Villa has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Amadou Onana from Aston Villa heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
42
Corner Corner
Aston Villa has earned a corner kick after Thomas Meunier allowed the ball to go out of play.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after a play that resulted in Romain Perraud giving away the ball.
37
Update Update
Ian Maatsen from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Thomas Meunier committed a foul against Lille.
36
Update Update
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Amadou Onana from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jadon Sancho from Aston Villa took a shot with his right foot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
32
Update Update
Félix Correia from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Félix Correia from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
Jadon Sancho from Aston Villa earned a free kick on the right flank.
31
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille committed a foul.
30
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Romain Perraud from Lille takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist was provided by Félix Correia.
29
Update Update
Aston Villa has been flagged for offside. Tammy Abraham is caught in an offside position.
25
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille committed a foul.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Félix Correia from Lille has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
25
Update Update
Lamare Bogarde from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
25
Update Update
Félix Correia from Lille committed a foul.
24
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
24
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa.
21
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Alexsandro Ribeiro allowed the ball to go out.
16
Update Update
Ngal'ayel Mukau from Lille committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Nathan Ngoy from Lille committed a foul.
13
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
11
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lille after Pau Torres allowed the ball to go out.
11
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Thomas Meunier from Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal following a corner kick.
4
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Olivier Giroud has been flagged for being offside.
4
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
3
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jadon Sancho.
1
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity gone begging! John McGinn from Aston Villa took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Tammy Abraham.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Aston Villa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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