Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Generali Arena Sun, 15 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Austria Wien FAK
2 Winner 5
Sturm Graz STU
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:00 PM
Matteo Schablas - 1'
Manfred Fischer - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Filip Rózga - 6'
Otar Kiteishvili - 45+1', 55' (P)
Ryan Fosso - 60'
Aleksandar Dragovic - 66' (Own Goal)
Tin Plavotic 55' Second yellow card
|
Red Card Paul Koller 76'

CONTEXT

The match between Austria Wien and Sturm Graz has concluded, with Sturm Graz securing a 3-2 away victory after taking a 2-1 lead into halftime. The flow of the game was tightly contested, reflected by Sturm Graz holding a slight possession advantage of 52% compared to Austria Wien's 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning the outcome

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Altmann
W. Altmann
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
S. Kühr
S. Kühr
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
L. Katholnig
L. Katholnig
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
S. Barmaksiz
S. Barmaksiz
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Austria Wien S. Helm
S. Helm
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried Rank: 51 W
LASK Linz Rank: 64 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 L
SK Rapid Rank: 58 W
Salzburg Rank: 70 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 63 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 50 W
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 L
Ried Rank: 53 W
Austria Wien Rank: 67 L
30
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
30 - 21 - 25
25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Austria Wien
37.37%
Draw
30.13%
Away Sturm Graz
32.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.94
67.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
Power Score
64.94
67.73
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
294
227

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Austria Wien — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Austria Wien Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Austria Wien

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Austria Wien ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.73
37.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.60
45.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Austria Wien +0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz -0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Austria Wien
vs
Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Austria Wien Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +1.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Austria Wien Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Austria Wien
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Austria Wien FAK Home
18 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
3
Draws
3
8
Losses
7
Goals
25
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
25
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:37:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Sahin-Radlinger
Austria
1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
P. Wiesinger
Austria
28 P. Wiesinger
A. Dragović
Austria
15 A. Dragović
T. Plavotic
Croatia
24 T. Plavotic
R. Ranftl
Austria
26 R. Ranftl
P. Maybach
Substitution
Austria
6 P. Maybach
Lee Kang-Hee
Substitution
South Korea
16 Lee Kang-Hee
M. Schablas
Substitution
Austria
40 M. Schablas
M. Fischer
Austria
30 (C) M. Fischer
A. Bari
Substitution
Gambia
5 A. Bari
J. Eggestein
Substitution
Germany
19 J. Eggestein
M. Bignetti
Austria
40 M. Bignetti
E. Karic
Austria
17 E. Karic
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
J. Mitchell
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 (C) J. Gorenc Stankovič
R. Fosso
Substitution
Switzerland
80 R. Fosso
F. Rózga
Substitution
Poland
8 F. Rózga
O. Kiteishvili
Substitution
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
J. Hödl
Substitution
Austria
43 J. Hödl
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
Generali Arena
Capacity
10398
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Walter Altmann
Stefan Kühr
Luka Katholnig
Safak Barmaksiz

Statistics

Possession
FAK
49%
STU
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 5
2 Big Chances Created 7
8 Shots 9
39 Dangerous attacks 31
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 14
6 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
8 Successful Dribbles 7
17 Throwins 24
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Goal Kicks 10
19 Dribble Attempts 14
11 Goal Attempts 10
83 Ball Safe 88
1 Injuries 2
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
71 Attacks 75

Possession

230 Successful Passes 259
15 Key Passes 8
23 Successful Long Passes 19
303 Passes 337
45 Long Passes 41
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
76 Successful Passes Percentage 77

Defensive

6 Interceptions 8
12 Tackles 18
5 Saves 5

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 6
21 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Walter Altmann

Starting XI ▼

1
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger Goalkeeper
6.44
15
Aleksandar Dragovic
Aleksandar Dragovic Defender
6.04
24
Tin Plavotic
Tin Plavotic Defender
4.96
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Philipp Wiesinger Defender
6.01
6
Philipp Maybach
Philipp Maybach Midfielder
6.13
36
Vasilije Markovic
Vasilije Markovic
Midfielder62'
6.8
16
Kang-hee Lee
Kang-hee Lee Midfielder
6.25
46
Johannes Handl
Johannes Handl
Defender62'
6.55
26
Reinhold Ranftl
Reinhold Ranftl Midfielder
6.36
40
Matteo Schablas
Matteo Schablas Midfielder
7.38
33
Marijan Österreicher
Marijan Österreicher
Midfielder82'
6.48
5
Abubakr Barry
Abubakr Barry Attacker
7.51
34
Romeo Mörth
Romeo Mörth
Attacker82'
6.23
19
Johannes Eggestein
Johannes Eggestein Attacker
7.29
47
Abdoulaye Kanté
Abdoulaye Kanté
Attacker88'
30
Manfred Fischer
Manfred Fischer (C) Attacker
7.17
Referee : Walter Altmann

Starting XI ▼

40
Matteo Bignetti
Matteo Bignetti Goalkeeper
7.16
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.23
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.71
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Defender
6.7
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
5.88
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic (C) Midfielder
7.06
8
Filip Rózga
Filip Rózga Midfielder
7.1
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder63'
6.78
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
2
9.23
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone
Attacker72'
6.55
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.05
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic
Defender72'
6.27
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
7.51
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
Midfielder88'
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.99
26
Belmin Beganovic
Belmin Beganovic
Attacker62'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksandar Dragovic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Johannes Handl
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Abdoulaye Kanté → Johannes Eggestein
9th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Luca Weinhandl → Ryan Fosso
10th Substitution
Event
Manfred Fischer
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
84'
Event
Marijan Österreicher → Matteo Schablas
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Romeo Mörth → Abubakr Barry
7th Substitution
82'
76'
Event
Paul Koller
Card adjusted
76'
Event
Paul Koller
Foul / 1st Redcard
72'
Event
Maurice Malone → Otar Kiteishvili
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Arjan Malic → Jacob Peter Hödl
5th Substitution
Event
Philipp Wiesinger
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
66'
Event
Aleksandar Dragovic
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
63'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Filip Rózga
4th Substitution
Event
Vasilije Markovic → Philipp Maybach
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Johannes Handl → Kang-hee Lee
2nd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Belmin Beganovic → Seedy Jatta
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Ryan Fosso
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
56'
Event
Filip Rózga
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Tin Plavotic
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
55'
55'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Penalty awarded
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Tin Plavotic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Abubakr Barry
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'
Event
7th Yellowcard
30'
6'
Event
Filip Rózga
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Matteo Schablas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sturm Graz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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