Mantova vs Cesena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Tue, 17 Mar - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Mantova MAN
3 Winner 0
Cesena CES
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 7:00 PM
Giovanni Zaro - 6' (Own Goal)
Andrea Meroni - 57'
Leonardo Mancuso - 90+3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Mantova 2–0 Cesena. The result saw Mantova take the points. Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mantova showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Cesena M. Mignani
M. Mignani
0.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Carrarese Rank: 52 D
Sampdoria Rank: 54 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Reggiana Rank: 50 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: 65 L
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Spezia Rank: 53 L
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 L
Pescara Rank: 43 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
39.87%
Draw
28.79%
Away Cesena
31.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.2
53.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Cesena
Power Score
50.2
53.51
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
729
647

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Cesena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.75
28.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.56
48.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mantova +1.97 Efficiency Index
vs
Cesena -1.97 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Cesena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mantova ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mantova Cesena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mantova Cesena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mantova
Cesena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
11 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
4
Goals
21
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
21
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:03:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Meroni
Italy
13 A. Meroni
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Castellini
Italy
27 A. Castellini
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
S. Trimboli
Substitution
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
Italy
80 R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
T. Marras
Substitution
Italy
23 T. Marras
N. Buso
Substitution
Italy
77 N. Buso
D. Mensah
Substitution
Ghana
7 (C) D. Mensah
J. Klinsmann
United States
33 J. Klinsmann
M. Guidi
San Marino
18 M. Guidi
M. Piacentini
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Piacentini
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 (C) A. Ciofi
T. Corazza
Substitution
Italy
27 T. Corazza
M. Francesconi
Substitution
Italy
70 M. Francesconi
C. Shpendi
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
T. Berti
Italy
14 T. Berti
R. Ciervo
Italy
11 R. Ciervo
G. Vrioni
Substitution
Albania
22 G. Vrioni

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity
7487
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Zanotti

Statistics

Possession
MAN
50%
CES
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
68 Dangerous attacks 37
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 10
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
9 Dribble Attempts 18
11 Throwins 19
6 Successful Dribbles 8
77 Ball Safe 112
11 Goal Attempts 9
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

108 Attacks 89
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 85
441 Passes 480
15 Key Passes 10
376 Successful Passes 408
37 Long Passes 41
18 Successful Long Passes 18
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

15 Tackles 8
15 Interceptions 10
3 Saves 2

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 16
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

20 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
7.18
13
Andrea Meroni
Andrea Meroni Defender
8.05
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
7.87
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
6.61
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Midfielder
6.93
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
7.07
36
Flavio Paoletti
Flavio Paoletti
Midfielder82'
6.6
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.83
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
7.76
7
Davis Mensah
Davis Mensah (C) Attacker
7
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso
Attacker69'
7.27
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Attacker
7.53
18
César Falletti
César Falletti
Midfielder82'
7.17
77
Nicolò Buso
Nicolò Buso Attacker
6.67
28
Maat Daniel Caprini
Maat Daniel Caprini
Attacker69'
6.4
Referee : Andrea Zanotti

Starting XI ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
6.36
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi (C) Defender
6.26
18
Matteo Guidi
Matteo Guidi Defender
6.36
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
6.67
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
6.11
16
Peter Amoran
Peter Amoran
Defender75'
6.44
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
6.42
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder
6.24
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
6.88
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Midfielder
6.58
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri
Attacker63'
6.5
70
Matteo Francesconi
Matteo Francesconi Midfielder
6.27
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli
Midfielder75'
6.94
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni Attacker
6.58
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri
Attacker60'
7.05

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leonardo Mancuso
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+3'
Event
Var
82'
Event
César Falletti → Tommaso Marras
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Flavio Paoletti → Simone Trimboli
10th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Peter Amoran → Matteo Piacentini
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Dimitri Bisoli → Matteo Francesconi
8th Substitution
Event
Maat Daniel Caprini → Nicolò Buso
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Leonardo Mancuso → Davis Mensah
6th Substitution
69'
Event
3rd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Marco Olivieri → Tommaso Corazza
4th Substitution
Event
Simone Trimboli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
62'
60'
Event
Alberto Cerri → Giacomo Vrioni
1st Substitution
Event
Andrea Meroni
Header / 1st Goal
57'
55'
Event
Matteo Piacentini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
5th Yellowcard
53'
Event
Andrea Ciofi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Matteo Guidi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Giovanni Zaro
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Mantova exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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