Catanzaro vs Modena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Tue, 14 Apr - 5:00 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
2 – 2
Modena MOD
Full Time Tue, 14 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Filippo Pittarello - 5'
Fabio Rispoli - 40'
Goal
|
Goal
Davide Adorni - 28'
Pedro Mendes - 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Catanzaro and Modena is finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-1 to the home side. Catanzaro led 2-1 at half-time and successfully protected that narrow advantage through the second period to claim victory. Pre-match expectations pointed to a tightly balanced contest, with projected chances of 37.6 percent for Catanzaro, 33.8 percent for Modena and 28.6 percent for the draw. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Catanzaro, who were rated the stronger team and converted that edge into a win. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout. Catanzaro held 55 percent possession to Modena’s 45 percent, though no expected goals data was available to assess further alignment. The outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection overall. No red cards were shown and no major disruptive events altered the flow of play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Allegretta
C. Allegretta
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Scatragli
M. Scatragli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Cipressa
A. Cipressa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Arena
A. Arena
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.15
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.93
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: D
Monza Rank: D
Cesena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: D
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Mantova Rank: W
Spezia Rank: W
Cesena Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
37.63%
Draw
28.61%
Away Modena
33.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Catanzaro
+32.67%
Draw
-61.95%
Modena
+29.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.16
22.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Modena
Power Score
28.16
22.16
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.73
22.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.67
17.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro -0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Modena +0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Modena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Modena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Modena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Modena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Catanzaro
vs
Modena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Catanzaro Modena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Catanzaro 0.23
Modena 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Catanzaro Modena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Catanzaro 0.05
Modena 0.06
Catanzaro
Modena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOD had peak pressure around 3'.
  • MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
CAT Pressure MOD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOD reached the top pressure at 3' (66.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
8 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
11
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-15T00:01:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
F. Moreira Pacheco
Substitution
Brazil
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
C. Favasuli
Substitution
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
F. Rispoli
32 F. Rispoli
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
G. Alesi
Italy
30 G. Alesi
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
P. Iemmello
Substitution
Italy
9 P. Iemmello
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello
M. Pezzolato
Italy
22 M. Pezzolato
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
D. Adorni
Substitution
Italy
28 D. Adorni
A. Dellavalle
Italy
25 A. Dellavalle
M. Cotali
Substitution
Italy
29 M. Cotali
S. Santoro
Substitution
Italy
8 S. Santoro
F. Gerli
Substitution
Italy
16 F. Gerli
Y. Massolin
France
17 Y. Massolin
F. Zampano
Italy
7 F. Zampano
M. De Luca
Italy
99 M. De Luca
G. Ambrosino
Substitution
Italy
10 G. Ambrosino

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity
14650
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Marco Scatragli
Alessandro Cipressa
Alberto Arena

Statistics

Possession
CAT
53%
MOD
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 8
35 Dangerous attacks 44
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 7
16 Throwins 14
2 Successful Dribbles 2
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
2 Injuries 2
8 Goal Attempts 11
8 Dribble Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
75 Ball Safe 65
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

69 Attacks 69
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

4 Key Passes 5
87 Successful Passes Percentage 81
396 Passes 308
344 Successful Passes 250
44 Long Passes 57
21 Successful Long Passes 24
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

4 Tackles 13
31 Duels Won 27
1 Saves 3
3 Interceptions 8

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 18
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.79
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.94
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Defender
6.85
26
Bruno Verrengia
Bruno Verrengia
Defender84'
6.42
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
7.03
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.21
98
Davide Buglio
Davide Buglio
Midfielder85'
6.71
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.93
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender74'
6.62
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
6.67
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli Midfielder
6.75
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
6.97
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello Attacker
7.07
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco
Attacker55'
6.73
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
6.74
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder74'
6.62
Referee : Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta

Starting XI ▼

22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper
7.25
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
7
25
Alessandro Dellavalle
Alessandro Dellavalle Defender
6.94
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Defender
6.85
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli
Defender46'
7.17
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
6.79
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Midfielder
7.12
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Midfielder63'
6.78
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Midfielder
6.87
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe
Midfielder78'
6.69
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Midfielder
6.95
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali Midfielder
6.59
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia
Attacker63'
6.94
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino Attacker
6.73
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes
Attacker71'
6.72
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Pedro Mendes
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Davide Buglio → Simone Pontisso
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Bruno Verrengia → Fellipe Jack
9th Substitution
84'
78'
Event
Samuel Wiafe → Fabio Gerli
8th Substitution
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Costantino Favasuli
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Mattia Liberali
7th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
Pedro Mendes → Giuseppe Ambrosino
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Niklas Pyyhtiä → Simone Santoro
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Luca Zanimacchia → Matteo Cotali
4th Substitution
Event
Federico Di Francesco → Pietro Iemmello
2nd Substitution
55'
46'
Event
Fabio Gerli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Daniel Tonoli → Davide Adorni
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Fabio Rispoli
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
40'
Event
Simone Pontisso
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
28'
Event
Davide Adorni
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Tommaso Cassandro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Goal awarded
7'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Header / 1st Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Catanzaro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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