Arsenal vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Champions League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
B04
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match is finished, with Arsenal securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Bayer 04 Leverkusen. This fixture concluded the second leg of their knockout tie. Just 6 days ago, the first meeting was played between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Arsenal, which ended with a tightly contested first leg scoreline of 1-1. Arsenal entered the match as strong favorites, holding a 72.1% pre-match market probability for a home win, alongside a 16.9% probability for a draw and 11% for an away victory. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market. Driven by their favored status, Arsenal registered a significant deviation from baseline expectations to firmly control the result. Bayer 04 Leverkusen dictated play with 58% possession, leaving Arsenal with 42%. However, the home side was vastly superior in attack, generating 2.02 expected goals (xG) compared to Leverkusen's 0.64 xG. The final result was fully consistent with this underlying xG data. The overall efficiency shift remained in line with performance metrics, and with zero red cards issued to either side, no disciplinary events negatively impacted the game's natural flow as Arsenal advanced.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Arsenal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team Power Ranking
i
100
89.48
Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Arsenal
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Arsenal
Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Arsenal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-25T06:54:43+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary