Jagiellonia Białystok vs Katowice Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Stadion Miejski Tue, 17 Mar - 6:00 PM

Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok

Katowice Katowice

Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 6:00 PM

Álex Pozo - 11'

Taras Romanczuk - 45'

Erik Jirka - 82'

CONTEXT

The match between Jagiellonia Białystok and Katowice has finished, with Jagiellonia Białystok securing a 2-1 full-time victory. The home side laid the groundwork early, taking a 2-0 lead into the half-time break before Katowice managed a second-half response. This outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which favoured Jagiellonia Białystok with a 53.9% probability of winning, compared to Katowice's 21.8% and a 24.3% chance of a draw. Delivering on their status as the predictably stronger team, the result represented a significant deviation (46.1%) for Jagiellonia Białystok from baseline neutral expectations. On the pitch, general play was tightly contested. This was reflected by a very narrow possession battle, where the hosts held a slight 51% to 49% advantage over the visitors. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning consistency with underlying chance creation cannot be determined. However, the overall efficiency shift during the match was entirely in line with standard expectations. The fixture also concluded smoothly in terms of discipline, with no red cards issued to either side to unexpectedly alter the flow or impact the final outcome.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

No referee statistics available.

A. Siemieniec

R. Górak

1.47

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.81

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Jagiellonia Białystok

53.89%

Draw

24.31%

Katowice

21.8%

Team Power Ranking

63.97

63.35

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Jagiellonia Białystok

Katowice

Power Score

63.97

63.35

League Position

Global Rank

328

354

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score

Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Katowice

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

42.06

33.78

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

33.78

42.06

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Jagiellonia Białystok +0.78 Efficiency Index

Katowice -0.78 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Katowice

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Katowice

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Jagiellonia Białystok Katowice

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Jagiellonia Białystok Katowice

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Katowice

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home

2 matches

Katowice Katowice Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Expected Goals

xGA

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-3

50 S. Abramowicz

15 N. Wojtuszek

13 B. Cardoso Vital

70 A. Pelmard

27 B. Wdowik

6 (C) T. Romanczuk

86 B. Mazurek

7 A. Pozo Pozo

11 J. Imaz Ballesté

19 M. Leiva Esquivel

10 A. Pululu

12 R. Straczek

6 L. Klemenz

4 (C) A. Jędrych

30 A. Czerwiński

8 B. Galán González

77 M. Kowalczyk

22 S. Milewski

23 M. Wasielewski

27 B. Nowak

80 I. Shkurin

70 M. Wdowiak

General Information

Date & Time

Mar 17, 2026, 06:00 PM

Competition

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Stadium

Stadion Miejski

Capacity

22372

Attendance

14081

Pitch Surface

Grass

Weather

☀️ , Clear

Referees

Pawel Sokolnicki

Marcin Szczerbowicz

A. Zbytniewski

Marcin Szczerbowicz

Statistics

Possession

Jagiellonia Białystok

50%

Katowice

50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 0

18 Shots 13

69 Dangerous attacks 71

51 Possession 49

5 Corners 1

16 Free kicks 15

5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

86 Ball Safe 84

1 Injuries 1

9 Goal Attempts 6

15 Throwins 16

1 Hit Woodwork 0

3 Goal Kicks 8

10 Dribble Attempts 10

5 Successful Dribbles 6

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

1 Assists 1

3 Substitutions 4

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0

92 Attacks 108

Possession

14 Key Passes 10

46 Long Passes 63

368 Successful Passes 354

453 Passes 431

81 Successful Passes Percentage 82

14 Successful Long Passes 30

30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

8 Interceptions 5

18 Tackles 8

3 Saves 2

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14

6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

14 Fouls 16

3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Manager ▼

A. Siemieniec Coach

Starting XI ▼

Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper

6.72

Bernardo Vital Defender

6.62

Norbert Wojtuszek Defender

6.67

Bartlomiej Wdowik Defender

7.24

Andy Pelmard Defender

6.73

Taras Romanczuk (C) Midfielder

8.02

Álex Pozo Midfielder

7.85

Dawid Drachal

Midfielder80'

6.28

Jesús Imaz Midfielder

7.09

Matías Nahuel Midfielder

6.44

Kajetan Szmyt

Midfielder64'

6.44

Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder

7.82

Afimico Pululu Attacker

6.9

Samed Bazdar

Attacker79'

6.63

Substitutes ▼

Adrian Damasiewicz Goalkeeper

Yuki Kobayashi Defender

Guilherme Montóia Defender

Sergio Lozano Midfielder

Zachary Zalewski Midfielder

Eryk Kozlowski Midfielder

Dimitris Rallis Attacker

Youssuf Sylla Attacker

Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz