Sporting Gijón vs Castellón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal El Molinón Sun, 15 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga 2
Sporting Gijón SPO
4 Winner 1
Castellón Castellón
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 8:00 PM
Juan Otero - 42', 76'
Andrés Ferrari - 47'
Pablo García - 89'
Goal
|
Goal
Álex Calatrava - 32' (P)
|
Red Card Jérémy Mellot 65'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Sporting Gijón securing a commanding 4-1 full-time victory over Castellón. The game was evenly poised at a 1-1 deadlock at half-time, but the final outcome represented a significant deviation in favor of Sporting Gijón. Castellón originally entered the contest as the clear market favorites with a 45.7% win probability, compared to just a 28% chance for the hosts. Consequently, the final result did not align with the pre-match market expectations. Despite the heavy defeat, Castellón controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 59% possession to Sporting Gijón's 41%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning alignment between the outcome and xG could not be definitively evaluated. However, the dynamics of the match were heavily influenced by a major second-half red card distortion. Castellón was reduced to ten men, which derailed their momentum and allowed the home side to dominate the later stages. Even with this massive upset and the ensuing disciplinary chaos, Sporting Gijón's overall efficiency shift was calculated to be fully in line with expectations for the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Gijón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. González Esteban
J. González Esteban
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.97
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso
D. Pérez de Colosía Alonso
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.97
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
L. Marín Robles
L. Marín Robles
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.97
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
G. Romero Freixas
G. Romero Freixas
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.97
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.48
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Sporting Gijón B. Jiménez Sáez
B. Jiménez Sáez
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: 59 D
Albacete Rank: 65 D
Huesca Rank: 62 W
SD Eibar Rank: 66 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 W
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Las Palmas Rank: 68 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 59 W
FC Andorra Rank: 58 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Gijón
28.04%
Draw
26.27%
Away Castellón
45.7%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.84
64.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Gijón
Castellón
Power Score
64.84
64.8
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
302
306

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Gijón — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Gijón Castellón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Gijón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Gijón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.02
28.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.05
34.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Gijón +0.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Castellón -0.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Gijón
Castellón
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Gijón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Gijón Castellón
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Gijón Castellón
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Gijón
Castellón
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Gijón SPO Home
5 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
7
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T13:50:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
C. Sánchez Leal
Cuba
13 C. Sánchez Leal
K. Vázquez Comesaña
Substitution
Spain
20 (C) K. Vázquez Comesaña
P. Vázquez Pérez
Spain
15 P. Vázquez Pérez
D. Sánchez Pérez
Spain
5 D. Sánchez Pérez
G. Rosas Alonso
Spain
2 G. Rosas Alonso
M. Rodríguez Paz
Substitution
Spain
36 M. Rodríguez Paz
A. Corredera Alardi
Spain
14 A. Corredera Alardi
B. Oliván Herrero
Spain
12 B. Oliván Herrero
J. Otero Tovar
Colombia
19 J. Otero Tovar
A. Ferrari Malviera
Substitution
Uruguay
9 A. Ferrari Malviera
J. Dubasin
Substitution
Belgium
17 J. Dubasin
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Sienra
Argentina
4 A. Sienra
A. Jiménez Benítez
Substitution
Spain
5 (C) A. Jiménez Benítez
J. Mellot
France
22 J. Mellot
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
D. Hernández Barriuso
Substitution
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Substitution
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
B. Kibambe Cipenga
DR Congo
16 B. Kibambe Cipenga
A. Calatrava Torrado
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Substitution
Guinea
9 O. Camara

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 15, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium
Estadio Municipal El Molinón
Capacity
30000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jon Ander González Esteban
David Pérez de Colosía Alonso
Luis Miguel Marín Robles
Gonzalo Romero Freixas

Statistics

Possession
SPO
44%
Castellón
56%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 11
39 Dangerous attacks 31
41 Possession 59
1 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 14
10 Successful Dribbles 7
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Goal Attempts 12
9 Goal Kicks 4
20 Throwins 19
99 Ball Safe 88
3 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 110
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 83
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
23 Successful Long Passes 25
9 Key Passes 13
321 Passes 478
236 Successful Passes 399
57 Long Passes 45

Defensive

20 Tackles 13
9 Interceptions 12
4 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

6 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

13
Christian Joel
Christian Joel Goalkeeper
6.93
5
Diego Sánchez
Diego Sánchez Defender
7.15
15
Pablo Vázquez
Pablo Vázquez Defender
6.52
20
Kevin Vázquez
Kevin Vázquez (C) Defender
6.56
3
Pablo García
Pablo García
Defender84'
7.52
2
Guille Rosas
Guille Rosas Midfielder
8.08
12
Brian Oliván
Brian Oliván Midfielder
7.06
14
Àlex Corredera
Àlex Corredera Midfielder
7.36
36
Manu Rodríguez
Manu Rodríguez Midfielder
6.47
24
Justin Smith
Justin Smith
Midfielder84'
6.56
9
Andrés Ferrari
Andrés Ferrari Attacker
7.38
7
Gaspar Campos
Gaspar Campos
Midfielder50'
6.67
17
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Attacker
7.13
18
Amadou Coundoul
Amadou Coundoul
Attacker90+2'
19
Juan Otero
Juan Otero Attacker
2
8.63
Referee : Jon Ander González Esteban

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.1
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra Defender
6.41
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez (C) Defender
6.19
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani
Defender82'
6.3
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
6.34
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Defender
5.99
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
6.7
14
Raúl Sánchez
Raúl Sánchez
Attacker62'
6.29
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Midfielder
7
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder78'
5.62
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
6.07
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.54
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder61'
6.53
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.64
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker82'
6.43
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.97

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Álex Calatrava
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Amadou Coundoul → Jonathan Dubasin
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Pablo García
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Pablo García → Kevin Vázquez
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Justin Smith → Manu Rodríguez
8th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Fabrizio Brignani → Alberto Jiménez
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Beñat Gerenabarrena
4th Substitution
Event
Juan Otero
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
65'
Event
Jérémy Mellot
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
62'
Event
Raúl Sánchez → Diego Barri
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Israel Suero → Pablo Santiago
2nd Substitution
Event
Àlex Corredera
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Gaspar Campos → Andrés Ferrari
1st Substitution
50'
Event
Andrés Ferrari
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Diego Barri
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Juan Otero
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
32'
Event
Álex Calatrava
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
30'
Event
Ousmane Camara
Penalty awarded
16'
Event
Ousmane Camara
Goal disallowed
Event
Kevin Vázquez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
12'
9'
Event
Alberto Jiménez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting Gijón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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