Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Mon, 16 Mar - 6:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
2 Winner 1
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
Full Time Mon, 16 Mar 6:00 PM
José Pozo - 68', 90+6'
Goal
|
Goal
Valentin Cojocaru - 24' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match between Pogoń Szczecin and Korona Kielce has officially finished, with Pogoń Szczecin securing a 2-1 full-time victory. The home side had to dig deep to earn the win, as they initially trailed 1-0 at half-time. Ultimately, the final result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which favored Pogoń Szczecin to win at 44.5%, compared to Korona Kielce's 28.8% and a 26.7% probability of a draw. Pogoń Szczecin dominated the ball, controlling 64% of the possession while Korona Kielce managed just 36%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture for both sides, making it impossible to evaluate if the exact outcome was consistent with xG metrics. However, the recorded efficiency shift was firmly in line with the final result. The underlying data indicated a significant deviation level of 55.5% regarding Pogoń Szczecin, and the stronger home team ultimately managed to claim all three points. Furthermore, the match was played cleanly without any red cards issued to either side, ensuring that no major disciplinary events disrupted the tactical flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Pogoń Szczecin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Heinig
B. Heinig
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
D. Kos
D. Kos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
D. Bohonos
D. Bohonos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
VS
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 64 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 W
Nieciecza Rank: 54 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 58 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 58 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 12 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pogoń Szczecin
44.45%
Draw
26.73%
Away Korona Kielce
28.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.04
60.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Power Score
62.04
60.14
League Position
8
12
Global Rank
397
449

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Korona Kielce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.67
19.72
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.72
38.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pogoń Szczecin +1.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Korona Kielce -1.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Korona Kielce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pogoń Szczecin Korona Kielce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Korona Kielce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Korona Kielce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Home
28 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Away
Match Record
11
Wins
5
12
Draws
12
5
Losses
11
Goals
41
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
41
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T12:54:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
D. Lončar
Substitution
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
L. Borges da Silva
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
J. Biegański
Substitution
Poland
6 J. Biegański
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 (C) F. Ulvestad
M. Agger
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Agger
S. Greenwood
Substitution
England
90 S. Greenwood
P. Mukairu
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
K. Angielski
Substitution
Poland
24 K. Angielski
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
C. Soteriou
Cyprus
44 C. Soteriou
S. Rubežić
Serbia
23 S. Rubežić
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
T. Svetlin
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
S. Gustafson
Substitution
Sweden
86 S. Gustafson
W. Długosz
Poland
71 W. Długosz
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 (C) D. Błanik
M. Stępiński
Poland
14 M. Stępiński

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 16, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity
18027
Attendance
13491
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Heinig
Damian Kos
Dariusz Bohonos

Statistics

Possession
Pogoń Szczecin
61%
Korona Kielce
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 4
75 Dangerous attacks 42
64 Possession 36
10 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Goal Kicks 10
18 Throwins 22
8 Successful Dribbles 3
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
13 Dribble Attempts 9
52 Ball Safe 65
13 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 63
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 76
431 Successful Passes 224
508 Passes 295
44 Long Passes 47
23 Successful Long Passes 15
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
15 Key Passes 4

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
4 Saves 5
8 Interceptions 13

Build-up

39 Total Crosses 18
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.22
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
7.49
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
6.7
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
6.58
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender72'
6.77
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
7.07
6
Jan Bieganski
Jan Bieganski Midfielder
6.7
14
José Pozo
José Pozo
Midfielder59'
2
8.62
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad (C) Midfielder
7.42
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
6.93
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
7.02
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa
Midfielder87'
90
Sam Greenwood
Sam Greenwood Midfielder
6.65
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic
Attacker59'
6.81
24
Karol Angielski
Karol Angielski Attacker
6.5
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder59'
7.11
Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
7.39
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
6.82
23
Slobodan Rubezic
Slobodan Rubezic Defender
7.21
44
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Konstantinos Sotiriou Defender
7
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Midfielder
6.59
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Midfielder
6.7
70
Antoñín
Antoñín
Attacker58'
6.41
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
6.24
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson Midfielder
6.75
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic
Midfielder73'
6.74
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
6.63
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik (C) Attacker
7.09
10
Nono
Nono
Midfielder57'
6.35
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
José Pozo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+6'
Event
N. Lawa → M. Agger
8th Substitution
87'
73'
Event
Stjepan Davidovic → Simon Gustafson
7th Substitution
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Danijel Loncar
6th Substitution
72'
Event
José Pozo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
68'
60'
Event
Var
Event
Filip Cuic → Sam Greenwood
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Kamil Grosicki → Karol Angielski
4th Substitution
59'
Event
José Pozo → Jan Bieganski
5th Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Antoñín → Martin Remacle
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Nono → Dawid Blanik
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Valentin Cojocaru
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Pogoń Szczecin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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