Burgos vs Córdoba Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío Sun, 22 Mar - 1:00 PM
La Liga 2
Burgos BUR
4 Winner 0
Córdoba Córdoba
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Miguel Atienza - 30'
Florian Miguel - 45+1'
Iñigo Córdoba - 48'
Curro Sánchez - 54' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Burgos securing a dominant 4-0 victory over Córdoba. Burgos took control early, establishing a comfortable 2-0 lead by halftime and refusing to take their foot off the gas. This outcome successfully aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Burgos with a 40.2% win probability, compared to a 30.8% chance of a draw and Córdoba's 29.1% chance of an upset. However, the sheer margin of the four-goal victory represented a significant deviation from baseline expectations, heavily favoring Burgos. Despite the lopsided scoreline, Córdoba actually controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 58% possession to Burgos's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it could not be determined whether the final outcome was fully consistent with the underlying shot quality. The match flowed without major disciplinary disruptions, as there were no red cards issued to either team to impact the play. Ultimately, the overall efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match measurements, confirming that the historically stronger team thoroughly validated their pre-game backing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
VS
Córdoba I. Ania Cadavieco
I. Ania Cadavieco
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cádiz Rank: 61 D
Las Palmas Rank: 70 D
Leganés Rank: 67 W
Málaga Rank: 69 L
Huesca Rank: 60 W
SD Eibar Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
FC Andorra Rank: 58 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Leganés Rank: 67 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burgos
40.16%
Draw
30.76%
Away Córdoba
29.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.37
61.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burgos
Córdoba
Power Score
67.37
61.86
League Position
7
12
Global Rank
262
429

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Córdoba — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burgos Córdoba

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Córdoba

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Córdoba
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.76
29.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.91
24.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burgos -0.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Córdoba +0.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Córdoba
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burgos ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Córdoba
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burgos Córdoba
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burgos Córdoba
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burgos
Córdoba
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burgos BUR Home
3 matches
Córdoba Córdoba Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
S. González Martínez
Spain
6 S. González Martínez
G. Sierra Pérez
Substitution
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
M. Atienza Villa
Substitution
Spain
5 (C) M. Atienza Villa
I. Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
Spain
14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
I. Córdoba Kerejeta
Substitution
Spain
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
F. Niño Rodriguez
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez
I. Iker
Andorra
1 I. Iker
D. Bri Carrazoni
Spain
5 D. Bri Carrazoni
X. Egea
Spain
15 (C) X. Egea
J. Martín Valerón
Spain
4 J. Martín Valerón
Álvaro Pérez Campo
Spain
22 Álvaro Pérez Campo
D. Requena Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
30 D. Requena Sánchez
I. Ruiz Sánchez
Spain
8 I. Ruiz Sánchez
A. Mendes Martins
Substitution
Portugal
17 A. Mendes Martins
J. González Rodrigañez
Spain
10 J. González Rodrigañez
C. Carracedo García
Substitution
Spain
23 C. Carracedo García
A. Fuentes González
Substitution
Spain
18 A. Fuentes González

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Capacity
12194
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Alejandro Ojaos Valera
Christian García Andreu
Borja Jiménez Contreras
Víctor Manuel Broncano Suárez

Statistics

Possession
BUR
44%
Córdoba
56%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 9
28 Dangerous attacks 67
42 Possession 58
5 Corners 15
18 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

6 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
9 Goal Attempts 8
11 Goal Kicks 5
28 Throwins 17
15 Dribble Attempts 20
7 Successful Dribbles 8
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
2 Assists 0
71 Ball Safe 64
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
73 Attacks 109

Possession

309 Passes 403
73 Successful Passes Percentage 84
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
63 Long Passes 43
7 Key Passes 8
225 Successful Passes 338
21 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

2 Saves 2
5 Interceptions 7
20 Tackles 12

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 35
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Ojaos Valera

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
7.01
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Defender
7
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
6.54
28
Saúl del Cerro
Saúl del Cerro
Midfielder85'
6.52
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
8.05
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza (C) Midfielder
7.6
10
Kévin Appin
Kévin Appin
Midfielder58'
6.36
14
David González
David González Midfielder
6.8
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
7.88
33
Marcelo Expósito
Marcelo Expósito
Midfielder58'
6.58
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
7.07
20
Mario González
Mario González
Attacker85'
6.43
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
6.66
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
8.74
4
Pablo Galdames
Pablo Galdames
Midfielder72'
6.5
Referee : Alejandro Ojaos Valera

Starting XI ▼

1
Iker Álvarez
Iker Álvarez Goalkeeper
5.81
4
Álex Martín
Álex Martín Defender
5.65
5
Diego Bri
Diego Bri Defender
6.01
15
Xavi Sintes
Xavi Sintes (C) Defender
5.9
22
Trilli
Trilli Defender
6.64
8
Isma Ruiz
Isma Ruiz Midfielder
6.87
10
Jacobo González
Jacobo González Midfielder
6.68
17
Adilson
Adilson Midfielder
6.12
25
Mikel Goti
Mikel Goti
Midfielder59'
6.2
23
Cristian Carracedo
Cristian Carracedo Midfielder
6.57
6
Diego Percan
Diego Percan
Attacker46'
6.46
30
Dani Requena
Dani Requena Midfielder
6.3
7
Théo Zidane
Théo Zidane
Midfielder46'
6.43
18
Adrián Fuentes
Adrián Fuentes Attacker
6.1
14
Sergi Guardiola
Sergi Guardiola
Attacker59'
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Mikel Goti
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Théo Zidane
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Sergi Guardiola
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Mario González → Iván Morante
11th Substitution
85'
Event
Saúl del Cerro → Grego Sierra
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Kévin Appin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
84'
Event
Jacobo González
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Pablo Galdames → Curro Sánchez
9th Substitution
72'
Event
Florian Miguel
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
69'
59'
Event
Sergi Guardiola → Adrián Fuentes
6th Substitution
59'
Event
8th Substitution
59'
Event
Mikel Goti → Adilson
7th Substitution
Event
Marcelo Expósito → Iñigo Córdoba
4th Substitution
58'
Event
5th Substitution
58'
Event
Kévin Appin → Miguel Atienza
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Curro Sánchez
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
Event
Iñigo Córdoba
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
46'
Event
Théo Zidane → Dani Requena
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Diego Percan → Cristian Carracedo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Florian Miguel
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+1'
Event
Miguel Atienza
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
30'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews