Dinamo Moskva vs Zenit Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VTB Arena (Moskva) Sun, 22 Mar - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Dinamo Moskva DMO
1 Winner 3
Zenit ZSP
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Arthur Gomes - 37'
Goal
|
Goal
Jhon Jhon - 22'
Aleksandr Sobolev - 43'
Maksim Glushenkov - 85'

CONTEXT

The match between Dinamo Moskva and Zenit has officially finished, with Zenit securing a 1-0 victory on the road. Pre-match market probabilities registered at 0% across the board, but Zenit was identified as the intrinsically stronger team heading into the fixture. Ultimately, the away victory was considered completely market aligned. However, Zenit displayed a significant deviation level from underlying performance baselines, registering a 100% deviation over standard pre-match projections. In terms of gameplay control, the visiting side held

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Dinamo Moskva R. Gusev
R. Gusev
VS
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: 61 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 74 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 60 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 W
Orenburg Rank: 51 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 67 W
Akron Rank: 55 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Zenit
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.88
80.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Moskva
Zenit
Power Score
70.88
80.31
League Position
7
2
Global Rank
178
61

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Moskva Zenit

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.87
26.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.89
27.87
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Moskva +0.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Zenit -0.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Zenit
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zenit
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Moskva Zenit
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Zenit
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Zenit
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Moskva DMO Home
42 matches
Zenit ZSP Away
Match Record
8
Wins
24
10
Draws
10
24
Losses
8
Goals
37
Goals Scored
71
71
Goals Conceded
37
-34
Goal Difference
+34
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Rasulov
Russia
40 K. Rasulov
J. Cáceres
Argentina
4 J. Cáceres
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
D. Loiola da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
57 D. Loiola da Silva
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
T. Marinkin
60 T. Marinkin
D. Fomin
Russia
74 (C) D. Fomin
N. Ngamaleu
Substitution
Cameroon
13 N. Ngamaleu
J. de Souza Mares
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
A. Gomes Lourenço
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
K. Tyukavin
Substitution
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
Brazil
3 (C) D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
G. Mantuan
Substitution
Brazil
31 G. Mantuan
W. Barrios Terán
Substitution
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
M. Valle da Silva
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
J. dos Santos Rosa
Substitution
Brazil
14 J. dos Santos Rosa
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
L. Rosa da Silva
Brazil
11 L. Rosa da Silva
A. Sobolev
Substitution
Russia
7 A. Sobolev

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
VTB Arena (Moskva)
Capacity
26319
Attendance
22364
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Sergey Ivanov
Andrey Obrazko
Varantso Petrosyan
Andrey Prokopov

Statistics

Possession
DMO
46%
ZSP
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 4
42 Dangerous attacks 45
47 Possession 53
3 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 18
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

65 Ball Safe 85
5 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Attempts 8
4 Injuries 2
18 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32
2 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Dribble Attempts 22
1 Assists 2
15 Successful Headers 14
20 Throwins 22
7 Goal Kicks 6

Attacking

83 Attacks 95

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 82
16 Successful Long Passes 31
391 Passes 450
38 Long Passes 63
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
315 Successful Passes 369

Defensive

0 Saves 1
19 Tackles 17
10 Interceptions 8

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 2
16 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

17 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Ivanov

Starting XI ▼

40
Kurban Rasulov
Kurban Rasulov Goalkeeper
6.1
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
6.47
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Defender
6.81
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
5.94
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo Defender
6.58
6
Roberto Fernandez
Roberto Fernandez
Defender46'
6.6
10
Bitello
Bitello Midfielder
6.6
17
U. Babaev
U. Babaev
Attacker75'
6.72
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Midfielder
7.06
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev
Attacker67'
6.55
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Midfielder
6.43
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev
Attacker75'
6.38
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin Midfielder
6.48
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin (C) Midfielder
6.71
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
6.64
14
E. Maouhoub
E. Maouhoub
Attacker78'
6.67
Referee : Sergey Ivanov

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
6.48
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos (C) Defender
6.83
31
Gustavo Mantuan
Gustavo Mantuan Defender
6.81
17
Andrey Mostovoy
Andrey Mostovoy
Midfielder90'
33
Nino
Nino Defender
6.76
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
6.37
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
6.97
28
Nuraly Alip
Nuraly Alip
Defender90'
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
7.07
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
7.96
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov
Midfielder88'
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique Midfielder
7.22
14
Jhon Jhon
Jhon Jhon Midfielder
7.42
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic
Defender66'
6.6
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
7.94
9
Jhon Durán
Jhon Durán
Attacker87'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Andrey Mostovoy → Gustavo Mantuan
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Nuraly Alip → Wilmar Barrios
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Daniil Kondakov → Maksim Glushenkov
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Jhon Durán → Aleksandr Sobolev
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Maksim Glushenkov
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
E. Maouhoub → K. Tyukavin
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
5th Substitution
75'
Event
U. Babaev → Bitello
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Ivan Sergeev → Arthur Gomes
3rd Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Vanja Drkusic → Jhon Jhon
2nd Substitution
Event
Roberto Fernandez → David Ricardo
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Arthur Gomes
Header / 2nd Goal
37'
32'
Event
Jhon Jhon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
Event
Jhon Jhon
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zenit exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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