Rosenborg vs Vålerenga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Lerkendal Stadion Sun, 22 Mar - 1:30 PM
Eliteserien
Rosenborg Rosenborg
0 Winner 2
Vålerenga Vålerenga
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 1:30 PM
Round 2 Regular Season
|
Goal
Carl Lange - 58'
Ivan Näsberg - 63'

CONTEXT

The match between Rosenborg and Vålerenga is finished, with the full-time score 0-2 to the visitors. The sides were level at 0-0 at half-time, but Vålerenga scored twice after the interval to claim victory. Pre-match expectations pointed toward Rosenborg, yet Vålerenga produced a significant deviation from those forecasts by winning as the away side. The outcome did not align with the pre-match projection. Rosenborg dominated possession at 61 percent to 39 percent and created more chances, posting 1.84 xG against Vålerenga’s 0.98 xG. Nevertheless the visitors proved far more clinical in front of goal. The result was not consistent with the xG data, which suggested Rosenborg should have taken something from the contest. No red cards were shown to alter the flow of play. The efficiency shift was in line with the stronger team prevailing on the day.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vålerenga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Kringstad
S. Kringstad
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
?. Simon Ytterland
?. Simon Ytterland
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Alnes Dyb
J. Alnes Dyb
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
P. Grov Heiberg
P. Grov Heiberg
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.94
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.21
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Rosenborg A. Johansson
A. Johansson
VS
Vålerenga G. Bakke
G. Bakke
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Molde Rank: 63 L
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Vålerenga Rank: 61 W
Molde Rank: 63 L
Sandefjord Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: 61 W
Viking Rank: 76 L
Kristiansund Rank: 55 D
Rosenborg Rank: 60 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 W
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 11 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rosenborg
42.88%
Draw
27.16%
Away Vålerenga
29.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.45
61.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rosenborg
Vålerenga
Power Score
60.45
61.19
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
448
427

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rosenborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rosenborg Vålerenga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rosenborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rosenborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.82
28.97
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.97
25.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rosenborg -0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Vålerenga +0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rosenborg
Vålerenga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rosenborg
vs
Vålerenga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rosenborg Vålerenga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rosenborg Vålerenga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Rosenborg
Vålerenga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rosenborg
vs
Vålerenga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rosenborg Vålerenga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rosenborg 0.16
Vålerenga 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rosenborg Vålerenga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rosenborg 0.08
Vålerenga 0.00
Rosenborg
Vålerenga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rosenborg had peak pressure around 17'.
  • Vålerenga started the game with stronger pressure.
Rosenborg Pressure Vålerenga Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rosenborg reached the top pressure at 17' (63.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rosenborg Rosenborg Home
40 matches
Vålerenga Vålerenga Away
Match Record
24
Wins
5
11
Draws
11
5
Losses
24
Goals
74
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
74
+42
Goal Difference
-42
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-10T09:24:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
L. Wahlstedt
Sweden
1 L. Wahlstedt
A. Fonn Witry
Norway
16 A. Fonn Witry
M. Ceide
Norway
4 M. Ceide
H. Singsdal Volden
Norway
5 H. Singsdal Volden
J. Svensson
Norway
22 (C) J. Svensson
A. Chiakha
Denmark
18 A. Chiakha
M. Bomholt
Denmark
17 M. Bomholt
I. Fossum
Substitution
Norway
8 I. Fossum
E. Ceide
Norway
35 E. Ceide
D. Islamovic
Montenegro
9 D. Islamovic
J. Bakke
Substitution
Norway
25 J. Bakke
O. Hedvall
Denmark
1 O. Hedvall
K. Finnsson
Iceland
2 K. Finnsson
I. Näsberg
Norway
37 I. Näsberg
A. Olsen
Norway
4 A. Olsen
H. Sjåtil
Norway
3 H. Sjåtil
E. Sørensen
Substitution
Denmark
11 E. Sørensen
C. Lange
Substitution
Denmark
10 C. Lange
M. Westergaard
Denmark
28 M. Westergaard
F. Thorvaldsen
Substitution
Norway
26 F. Thorvaldsen
M. Grundetjern
Substitution
Norway
17 M. Grundetjern
H. Bjørdal
Norway
8 (C) H. Bjørdal

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Lerkendal Stadion
Capacity
21421
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Øystein Simon Ytterland
Jim André Alnes Dyb
Per Oscar Grov Heiberg

Statistics

Possession
Rosenborg
59%
Vålerenga
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 10
75 Dangerous attacks 26
61 Possession 39
16 Corners 6
19 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
2 Substitutions 5
73 Ball Safe 62
1 Hit Woodwork 0
27 Dribble Attempts 15
16 Throwins 21
6 Goal Kicks 9
6 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Goal Attempts 6
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

Attacking

1 Counter Attacks 1
118 Attacks 55
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 73
429 Successful Passes 246
513 Passes 338
4 Key Passes 6
15 Successful Long Passes 20
36 Long Passes 53
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

4 Saves 1
16 Tackles 26
10 Interceptions 12

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
29 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

9 Fouls 20
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

1
Leopold Wahlstedt
Leopold Wahlstedt Goalkeeper
6.88
4
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide Defender
6.45
5
Håkon Volden
Håkon Volden Defender
6.79
16
Aslak Witry
Aslak Witry Defender
6.96
22
Jonas Svensson
Jonas Svensson (C) Defender
6.74
8
Iver Fossum
Iver Fossum Midfielder
6.48
10
Ole Selnæs
Ole Selnæs
Midfielder72'
6.71
17
Mads Bomholt
Mads Bomholt Midfielder
7.15
18
Amin Chiakha
Amin Chiakha Midfielder
6.26
35
Emil Konradsen Ceide
Emil Konradsen Ceide Midfielder
6.48
9
Dino Islamovic
Dino Islamovic Attacker
6.71
25
Johan Johanessen Bakke
Johan Johanessen Bakke Attacker
6.23
11
Noah Sahsah
Noah Sahsah
Attacker65'
6.8
Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
7.05
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
7.67
3
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil Defender
7.09
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
7.57
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
8.27
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
7.67
29
Fidel Brice Ambina
Fidel Brice Ambina
Midfielder68'
6.58
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen Midfielder
6.84
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder60'
6.5
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen Midfielder
6.72
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren
Midfielder60'
6.52
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
7.2
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal (C) Attacker
6.93
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern Attacker
6.64
90
Ole Sæter
Ole Sæter
Attacker60'
6.45

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aslak Witry
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
78'
Event
Lucas Haren
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Gabriel Rajkovic → Ole Sæter
7th Substitution
Event
Ole Selnæs → Iver Fossum
6th Substitution
72'
68'
Event
Fidel Brice Ambina → Carl Lange
5th Substitution
Event
Noah Sahsah → Johan Johanessen Bakke
4th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Ivan Näsberg
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Ole Sæter → M. Grundetjern
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Petter Strand → Elias Sørensen
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Lucas Haren → Filip Thorvaldsen
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Carl Lange
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Vålerenga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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