Botafogo vs Vitória Prediction, Preview and Stats

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Nilton Santos Thu, 23 Jul - 10:30 PM
Serie A
Botafogo BOT
Versus
Vitória VTO
Postponed Thu, 23 Jul 10:30 PM
Round 4 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Botafogo welcomes Vitória to Estádio Nilton Santos for a Serie A regular season encounter in 2026. The home side carries a modest power advantage of 5.6 points with a score of 66.71 against the visitors 61.13, establishing them as the stronger team on paper. League positions remain tight with Botafogo sitting 12th and Vitória one place below in 13th. Form scores tell a different story as the away side posts 19.72 compared to the hosts 14.56. Set piece metrics carry low confidence and rely on proxy data for both clubs. Overall the matchup features two mid-table sides separated by narrow margins across key indicators. The contest promises a balanced affair shaped by these underlying metrics.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Botafogo holds a 5.6 point power advantage with scores of 66.71 to 61.13.
  • Form: Vitória posts a higher form score of 19.72 against Botafogo 14.56.
  • Squad: Botafogo sits 12th in the table while Vitória occupies 13th place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in the current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence and proxy usage for both sides.
  • xVariable: Power scores list Botafogo at 66.71 and Vitória at 61.13.
  • Market: Botafogo 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Vitória 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Botafogo F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
VS
Vitória J. Ribeiro Ventura
J. Ribeiro Ventura
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santos Rank: 63 D
Bahia Rank: 61 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Corinthians Rank: 66 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 63 D
Remo Rank: 57 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 D
Santos Rank: 63 L
Internacional Rank: 63 W
Bragantino Rank: 64 L
Fluminense Rank: 68 D
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 4 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Botafogo
0%
Draw
0%
Away Vitória
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.71
61.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Botafogo
Vitória
Power Score
66.71
61.13
League Position
12
13
Global Rank
325
499

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Vitória — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Botafogo Vitória

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Botafogo BOT Home
4 matches
Vitória VTO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-16T00:23:23+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
N. Murara Neto
22 N. Murara Neto
Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
3 Y. Rodrigues de Oliveira
N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
A. Barboza Ullúa
20 A. Barboza Ullúa
V. da Silva
2 V. da Silva
J. Barrera Herrera
14 J. Barrera Herrera
D. dos Santos de Oliveira
8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
A. Telles
13 A. Telles
A. Guimarães
7 A. Guimarães
A. Mendonça Cabral
19 A. Mendonça Cabral
?. Montoro
10 ?. Montoro
Pitch
G. Vasconelos Ferreira
22 G. Vasconelos Ferreira
R. Ramos Lima
13 R. Ramos Lima
L. Candido de Almeida
36 L. Candido de Almeida
C. Andrade de Souza Silva
4 C. Andrade de Souza Silva
N. de Souza Mendes
45 N. de Souza Mendes
E. Rodrigues Nunes
21 E. Rodrigues Nunes
G. Baralhas dos Santos
44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
C. de Jesus Gonçalves
95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
R. de Souza
79 R. de Souza
E. de Arruda Serafim
33 E. de Arruda Serafim

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 23, 2026, 10:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Nilton Santos
Capacity :
46831
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

22
Neto
Neto Goalkeeper
13
Alex Telles
Alex Telles Midfielder
2
Vitinho
Vitinho Midfielder
10
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro Attacker
19
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral Centre Forward
7
Artur
Artur Attacker
14
Jordan Barrera
Jordan Barrera Central Midfield
20
Alexander Barboza
Alexander Barboza Left Back
28
Newton
Newton Centre Back
3
Ythallo
Ythallo Right Back
8
Danilo
Danilo Central Midfield

Starting XI ▼

22
Gabriel
Gabriel Goalkeeper
33
Erick
Erick Attacker
10
Matheuzinho
Matheuzinho Attacker
79
Renato Kayzer
Renato Kayzer Centre Forward
4
Camutanga
Camutanga Right Back
13
Ramon
Ramon Left Back
36
Luan Cândido
Luan Cândido Left Back
44
Baralhas
Baralhas Central Midfield
45
Nathan Mendes
Nathan Mendes Right Back
95
Caíque Gonçalves
Caíque Gonçalves Central Midfield
21
Dudu
Dudu Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Botafogo will look to leverage its slight power edge and home setting against a Vitória side that carries stronger recent form. Mid-table positioning for both clubs suggests a measured approach rather than all-out attack. Limited set piece insights and absent efficiency figures leave room for in-game adjustments. The narrow structural gap points to a contest decided by execution and individual moments rather than overwhelming dominance. Both teams must navigate the absence of detailed supporting data while focusing on core strengths. This fixture offers a classic league battle where small margins could determine the outcome.

Botafogo vs Vitória preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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