Ried vs WSG Tirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
josko ARENA Sat, 14 Mar - 4:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Ried Ried
2 Winner 1
WSG Tirol WSG
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 4:00 PM
Kingstone Mutandwa - 45+6' (P)
Philipp Pomer - 85' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Ademola Ola-Adebomi - 81'

CONTEXT

The match between Ried and WSG Tirol has concluded, with Ried securing a 2-1 victory at full-time after taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break. Going into the match, the betting markets clearly favored Ried with a 48.6% win probability, compared to a 27.9% chance for a draw and a 23.5% probability for a WSG Tirol away win. Ultimately, the final outcome was perfectly aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the performance metrics generated a significant deviation level of 51.4%, heavily reflecting Ried's impact. On the pitch, the flow of play was tightly contested. Ried held a razor-thin possession advantage of 51% compared to WSG Tirol's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning the outcome's consistency with underlying offensive creation could not be assessed. The post-match efficiency shift was entirely in line with the final result, as Ried posted a positive 0.8531 efficiency rating while WSG Tirol dropped to -0.8531. Finally, the match progressed strictly at full strength without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side was shown a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ried showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Semler
J. Semler
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
P. Duschek
P. Duschek
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
E. Kudic
E. Kudic
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
M. Baumann
M. Baumann
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Ried M. Senft
M. Senft
VS
WSG Tirol P. Semlic
P. Semlic
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 65 L
Grazer AK Rank: 48 L
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 67 L
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grazer AK Rank: 49 W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 49 W
Ried Rank: 53 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 67 W
LASK Linz Rank: 66 L
Hartberg Rank: 60 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ried
48.56%
Draw
27.9%
Away WSG Tirol
23.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.6
53.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ried
WSG Tirol
Power Score
45.6
53.71
League Position
9
7
Global Rank
692
643

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ried — Opponent-weighted form score
WSG Tirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ried WSG Tirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ried

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

WSG Tirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ried ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy WSG Tirol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.14
17.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.55
28.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ried +0.80 Efficiency Index
vs
WSG Tirol -0.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ried
WSG Tirol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ried
vs
WSG Tirol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ried WSG Tirol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+2.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ried WSG Tirol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Ried
WSG Tirol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ried Ried Home
12 matches
WSG Tirol WSG Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
4
Goals
19
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
19
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-17T07:31:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Leitner
Austria
1 (C) A. Leitner
N. Havenaar
Japan
5 N. Havenaar
M. Sollbauer
Austria
23 M. Sollbauer
O. Steurer
Germany
30 O. Steurer
A. Bajic
Austria
12 A. Bajic
J. Mayer
Austria
26 J. Mayer
M. Maart
Substitution
South Africa
6 M. Maart
P. Pomer
Austria
17 P. Pomer
F. Rossdorfer
Austria
18 F. Rossdorfer
A. Van Wyk
Substitution
South Africa
29 A. Van Wyk
K. Mutandwa
Substitution
Zambia
7 K. Mutandwa
A. Stejskal
Czech Republic
40 A. Stejskal
D. Jaunegg
Austria
27 D. Jaunegg
J. Lawrence
Germany
5 J. Lawrence
M. Boras
Croatia
23 M. Boras
B. Böckle
Austria
20 B. Böckle
J. Naschberger
Substitution
Austria
17 J. Naschberger
V. Müller
Austria
4 (C) V. Müller
L. Sulzbacher
Austria
6 L. Sulzbacher
M. Wels
Substitution
Austria
37 M. Wels
N. Frederiksen
Denmark
8 N. Frederiksen
A. Ola-Adebomi
England
9 A. Ola-Adebomi

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Stadium
josko ARENA
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Jakob Semler
Philipp Duschek
Edin Kudic
Manuel Baumann

Statistics

Possession
Ried
51%
WSG
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 4
47 Dangerous attacks 32
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
6 Dribble Attempts 9
28 Throwins 18
7 Goal Kicks 8
85 Ball Safe 94
11 Goal Attempts 5
2 Penalties 0
1 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 1
2 Successful Dribbles 3
3 Substitutions 2

Attacking

84 Attacks 79
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

169 Successful Passes 157
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
56 Long Passes 80
253 Passes 252
67 Successful Passes Percentage 62
7 Key Passes 7
17 Successful Long Passes 32

Defensive

2 Saves 1
5 Interceptions 5
13 Tackles 10

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 4
20 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

18 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Jakob Semler

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Leitner
Andreas Leitner (C) Goalkeeper
6.39
5
Benjamin Garcia
Benjamin Garcia Defender
7.21
23
Michael Sollbauer
Michael Sollbauer Defender
6.94
30
Oliver Steurer
Oliver Steurer Defender
6.72
6
Yusuf Maart
Yusuf Maart Midfielder
6.91
8
Martin Rasner
Martin Rasner
Midfielder74'
6.26
12
Ante Bajic
Ante Bajic Midfielder
7.25
17
Philipp Pomer
Philipp Pomer Midfielder
6.96
26
Jonas Mayer
Jonas Mayer Midfielder
6.36
7
Kingstone Mutandwa
Kingstone Mutandwa Attacker
6.75
13
Peter Kiedl
Peter Kiedl
Attacker82'
6.37
18
Fabian Rossdorfer
Fabian Rossdorfer Attacker
6.54
29
Antonio Van Wyk
Antonio Van Wyk Attacker
6.45
15
Joris Boguo
Joris Boguo
Attacker46'
6.58
Referee : Jakob Semler

Starting XI ▼

40
Adam Stejskal
Adam Stejskal Goalkeeper
6.4
5
Jamie Lawrence
Jamie Lawrence Defender
6.78
23
Marco Boras
Marco Boras Defender
6.54
27
David Jaunegg
David Jaunegg Defender
6.57
4
Valentino Müller
Valentino Müller (C) Midfielder
6.8
6
Lukas Sulzbacher
Lukas Sulzbacher Midfielder
6.04
17
Johannes Naschberger
Johannes Naschberger Midfielder
6.35
21
Yannick Vötter
Yannick Vötter
Attacker67'
6.4
20
Benjamin Böckle
Benjamin Böckle Midfielder
6.82
8
N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen Attacker
7.44
9
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Ademola Ola-Adebomi Attacker
7.33
37
Moritz Wels
Moritz Wels Attacker
6.02
16
Lukas Hinterseer
Lukas Hinterseer
Attacker79'
5.74

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Marco Boras
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Peter Kiedl
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Philipp Pomer
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
85'
Event
Peter Kiedl → Kingstone Mutandwa
5th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Header / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Lukas Hinterseer → Moritz Wels
4th Substitution
Event
Martin Rasner → Yusuf Maart
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Michael Sollbauer
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
73'
67'
Event
Yannick Vötter → Johannes Naschberger
2nd Substitution
Event
Joris Boguo → Antonio Van Wyk
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Kingstone Mutandwa
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+6'
Event
Benjamin Garcia
Penalty awarded
45+4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ried exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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