Qarabağ vs Vestri Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku)) Today - 4:00 PM
Europa League
Qarabağ QAR
3 Winner 0
Vestri Vestri
Full Time Today 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
R. Cephas - 86'
Abdellah Zoubir - 45+2'
Zakaria Sawo - 30'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Qarabağ hosted Vestri in the first leg of their two-legged tie and secured a 3-0 victory. The home side took control early, leading 2-0 at halftime through efficient finishing. They maintained 72 percent possession against Vestri's 28 percent and added a third goal after the break to seal the result. No red cards were issued to either team. Despite Vestri being labeled the stronger side beforehand, Qarabağ's performance produced a minimal 2.9 percent deviation. The outcome proved consistent with available indicators and leaves the aggregate score at 3-0 heading into the return fixture. The match featured no second-half adjustments or major disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match recorded a minimal 2.9 percent structural deviation for Qarabağ.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result was aligned with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG values were recorded to establish expectations.
  • Event impact: Qarabağ's goals produced a 3-0 win in leg one.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion was present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Jitari

Moldova 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

V. Lifciu

1st Assistant

Moldova

V. Vicol

2nd Assistant

Moldova

A. Breguța

4th Official

Moldova

League averages

Europa League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.86
Yellow cards / match 3.6
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.26
Qarabağ Q. Qurbanov
Q. Qurbanov
VS
Vestri D. Osafo-Badu
D. Osafo-Badu
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Qarabağ
97.13%
Draw
1.9%
Away Vestri
0.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.33
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Qarabağ
Vestri
Power Score
13.33
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Qarabağ — Opponent-weighted form score
Vestri — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Qarabağ Vestri

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Qarabağ

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vestri

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Qarabağ ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vestri
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Qarabağ Vestri
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Qarabağ Vestri
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Qarabağ
Vestri
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Qarabağ
vs
Vestri
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Qarabağ Vestri
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Qarabağ 0.00
Vestri 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Qarabağ Vestri
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Qarabağ 0.00
Vestri 0.00
Qarabağ
Vestri
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • QAR had peak pressure around 95'.
  • QAR started the game with stronger pressure.
QAR Pressure Vestri Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: QAR reached the top pressure at 95' (59.28).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Qarabağ QAR Home
0 matches
Vestri Vestri Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:03:43+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku))
Capacity :
31200
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
R. Jitari
Vladislav Lifciu
Vadim Vicol
Andrei Breguța

Statistics

Possession
QAR
71%
Vestri
29%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
12 Shots 2
141 Dangerous attacks 45
72 Possession 28
9 Corners 0
8 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 15
2 Assists 0

Attacking

157 Attacks 69

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
4 Fouls 6

Squad

Referee : R. Jitari

Squad ▼

1
Şahruddin Məhəmmədəliyev
Şahruddin Məhəmmədəliyev Goalkeeper
99
Mateusz Kochalski
Mateusz Kochalski Goalkeeper
23
Martin Zlomislić
Martin Zlomislić Goalkeeper
—
Sadiq Məmmədzadə
Sadiq Məmmədzadə Goalkeeper
55
Badavi Hüseynov
Badavi Hüseynov Defender
30
Abbas Hüseynov
Abbas Hüseynov Defender
13
Bəhlul Mustafazadə
Bəhlul Mustafazadə Defender
2
Matheus de Barros da Silva
Matheus de Barros da Silva Defender
44
Elvin Cəfərquliyev
Elvin Cəfərquliyev Defender
25
Cebrails Makreckis
Cebrails Makreckis Defender
5
Bruno Alberto Langa
Bruno Alberto Langa Defender
4
Bence Várkonyi
Bence Várkonyi Defender
18
Daniel Lima de Castro
Daniel Lima de Castro Defender
39
Jeremie Gnali
Jeremie Gnali Defender
8
Marko Janković
Marko Janković Midfielder
9
Jonhatan Montiel Caballero
Jonhatan Montiel Caballero Midfielder
20
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski
Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski Midfielder
35
Pedro Henrique Rodrigues Bicalho
Pedro Henrique Rodrigues Bicalho Midfielder
88
Samuel Gomes Lobato
Samuel Gomes Lobato Midfielder
32
Hikmət Cəbrayılzadə
Hikmət Cəbrayılzadə Midfielder
10
Abdellah Zoubir
Abdellah Zoubir Attacker
21
Oleksii Kashchuk
Oleksii Kashchuk Attacker
22
Musa Gurbanli
Musa Gurbanli Attacker
11
Zakaria Sawo
Zakaria Sawo Attacker
7
Jaly Mouaddib
Jaly Mouaddib Attacker
29
Renaldo Showayne Cephas
Renaldo Showayne Cephas Attacker
17
Camilo Andres Durán Marquez
Camilo Andres Durán Marquez Attacker
Referee : R. Jitari

Squad ▼

1
Marvin Darri Steinarsson
Marvin Darri Steinarsson Goalkeeper
22
Elmar Atli Garðarsson
Elmar Atli Garðarsson Defender
29
Konstantin Cheshmedzhiev
Konstantin Cheshmedzhiev Defender
17
Gunnar Jónas Hauksson
Gunnar Jónas Hauksson Defender
3
Edson Eduardo Dias Gomes
Edson Eduardo Dias Gomes Defender
77
Sergine Modou Fall
Sergine Modou Fall Midfielder
12
Thibang Sindile Theophilus Phete
Thibang Sindile Theophilus Phete Midfielder
7
Jacob Stensson
Jacob Stensson Midfielder
10
Þórður Gunnar Hafþórsson
Þórður Gunnar Hafþórsson Midfielder
—
Fatai Adebowale Gbadamosi
Fatai Adebowale Gbadamosi Midfielder
23
Breki Þór Hermannsson
Breki Þór Hermannsson Midfielder
6
Ibrahima Balde
Ibrahima Balde Midfielder
—
Guðmundur Arnar Svavarsson Svavarsson
Guðmundur Arnar Svavarsson Svavarsson Midfielder
13
A. Jóhannsson
A. Jóhannsson Midfielder
9
Pétur Bjarnason
Pétur Bjarnason Attacker
27
Albin Mörfelt
Albin Mörfelt Attacker
19
Emmanuel Agyemang Duah
Emmanuel Agyemang Duah Attacker
11
Johannes Selvén
Johannes Selvén Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dani Bolt → Badavi Hüseynov
10th Substitution
88'
Event
R. Cephas
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
R. Cephas → Abdellah Zoubir
9th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
B. Eydal → G. Hauksson
7th Substitution
78'
Event
J. Selvén → Breki Thór Hermannsson
8th Substitution
Event
Elvin Cafarquliyev → Bruno Langa
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Samuel Lobato → Marko Jankovic
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Jaly Mouaddib → Oleksiy Kashchuk
6th Substitution
65'
57'
Event
G. Einarsson → G. Svavarsson
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Chriss-Albin Alexander Mörfelt → Þ. Hafþórsson
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Abdellah Zoubir
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+2'
Event
Zakaria Sawo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
30'
26'
Event
J. Stensson → Ibrahima Baldé
1st Substitution
2'
Event
S. Fall
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Daniel Lima de Castro comes on for Badavi Huseynov.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Renaldo Cephas scores, making it 3-0.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Update Update
Johannes Selven comes on for Breki Hermannsson.
79
Update Update
Renaldo Cephas comes on for Abdellah Zoubir.
78
Substitution Substitution
Birkir Eydal is substituted off for Gunnar Jonas Hauksson.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Update Update
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev comes on for Bruno Alberto Langa.
65
Substitution Substitution
Jaly Mouaddib is substituted for Oleksii Kashchuk.
65
Update Update
Samuel Lobato replaces Marko Jankovic.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Albin Morfelt comes on for Thordur Gunnar Hafthorsson.
58
Update Update
On comes Gudmundur Arnar Svavarsson, off goes Gudmundur Pall Einarsson.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Abdellah Zoubir scores, making it 2-0.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zakaria Sawo scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Oleksii Kashchuk.
25
Update Update
Jacob Stensson is on, and Ibrahima Balde is off.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Roman Jitari.

CONCLUSION

Qarabağ delivered a composed display to claim a 3-0 advantage after the opening leg. Their early goals and sustained possession limited Vestri's opportunities throughout the contest. The clean sheet and efficient attacking play provide a solid platform for the return fixture. Vestri will need to respond strongly at home to alter the aggregate. With no disciplinary issues affecting the outcome, both teams can focus on tactical adjustments. The result positions Qarabağ favorably while leaving room for further developments in the second leg.

Qarabağ vs Vestri preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.