Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Yerevan Football Academy Today - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Alashkert Alashkert
1 – 1
Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey
Full Time Today 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
D. Terteryan - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Arsen Ashirbekov - 60'

CONTEXT

Alashkert hosted Yelimay Semey in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie that finished 1-1. The home side controlled 55 percent of possession while the visitors held 45 percent. Both teams failed to score in the opening 45 minutes leaving the halftime score level at 0-0. Goals arrived after the interval to produce the final deadlock. Alashkert entered as the stronger side yet could not convert territorial advantage into a win. The result featured a significant deviation of 70.9 percent associated with the home team. No red cards were issued during the contest. The draw leaves the aggregate balanced ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alashkert recorded a significant 70.9 percent structural deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing any alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw outcome was not aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations could be evaluated because the relevant metrics were missing.
  • Event impact: The second-half goals produced a 1-1 draw that shapes the tie for the second leg.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown resulting in no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. Ilioski

Macedonia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

V. Mitrevski

1st Assistant

B. Trajkov

2nd Assistant

Macedonia

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.04
Yellow cards / match 2.62
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.15
Alashkert Alashkert
Alashkert
VS
Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alashkert
45.12%
Draw
29.09%
Away Yelimay Semey
25.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Alashkert
+38.16%
Draw
-57.92%
Yelimay Semey
+19.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alashkert — Opponent-weighted form score
Yelimay Semey — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alashkert Yelimay Semey

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alashkert

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Yelimay Semey

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alashkert ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Yelimay Semey
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Alashkert
vs
Yelimay Semey
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Alashkert 0.00
Yelimay Semey 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Alashkert 0.00
Yelimay Semey 0.00
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Alashkert had peak pressure around 3'.
  • Alashkert started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Alashkert Pressure Yelimay Semey Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Alashkert reached the top pressure at 3' (51.24).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alashkert Alashkert Home
0 matches
Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:03:51+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Yerevan Football Academy
Capacity :
1500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Vlatko Ilioski
V. Mitrevski
Boris Trajkov

Statistics

Possession
Alashkert
55%
Yelimay Semey
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
7 Shots 9
112 Dangerous attacks 84
55 Possession 45
11 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 67
8 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 4
43 Throwins 30
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

100 Attacks 77

Discipline

5 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 11

Squad

Referee : Vlatko Ilioski

Squad ▼

24
Arsen Beglaryan
Arsen Beglaryan Goalkeeper
1
Vlad Chatunts
Vlad Chatunts Goalkeeper
—
Ibrahim Sesay
Ibrahim Sesay Goalkeeper
22
Robert Hakobyan
Robert Hakobyan Defender
—
Hakob Hakobyan
Hakob Hakobyan Defender
5
Davit Terteryan
Davit Terteryan Defender
—
Cézar Henrique Dias Santos
Cézar Henrique Dias Santos Defender
15
Arsen Sadoyan
Arsen Sadoyan Defender
—
Yuri Martirosyan
Yuri Martirosyan Defender
66
Mher Kankanyan
Mher Kankanyan Defender
7
Karen Nalbandyan
Karen Nalbandyan Midfielder
6
Edgar Piloyan
Edgar Piloyan Midfielder
18
Ifeanyi David Nduka
Ifeanyi David Nduka Midfielder
11
Momo Fanyé Touré
Momo Fanyé Touré Attacker
—
Domi Jaurès Massoumou
Domi Jaurès Massoumou Attacker
17
Joseph Sabobo Banda
Joseph Sabobo Banda Attacker
—
Fhilip Chinemerem Ejike
Fhilip Chinemerem Ejike Attacker
Referee : Vlatko Ilioski

Squad ▼

32
Ivan Konovalov
Ivan Konovalov Goalkeeper
1
Yegor Tsuprikov
Yegor Tsuprikov Goalkeeper
22
Nikita Pivkin
Nikita Pivkin Goalkeeper
26
Strahinja Tanasijević
Strahinja Tanasijević Defender
3
Higor Gabriel Fernandes Alves
Higor Gabriel Fernandes Alves Defender
4
Adilbek Zhumakhanov
Adilbek Zhumakhanov Defender
2
Adi Adambayev
Adi Adambayev Defender
15
Maj Mittendorfer
Maj Mittendorfer Defender
6
Ermek Abdulla
Ermek Abdulla Defender
5
Marin Belančić
Marin Belančić Defender
27
Yevgeniy Berezkin
Yevgeniy Berezkin Midfielder
18
Ramazan Orazov
Ramazan Orazov Midfielder
23
Hrvoje Ilić
Hrvoje Ilić Midfielder
44
Almas Tiuliubay
Almas Tiuliubay Midfielder
7
Roman Murtazayev
Roman Murtazayev Attacker
77
Euloge Mèmè Placca Fessou
Euloge Mèmè Placca Fessou Attacker
14
Dubán Felipe Palacio Mosquera
Dubán Felipe Palacio Mosquera Attacker
17
Akmal Bakhtiyarov
Akmal Bakhtiyarov Attacker
10
Zhanali Pairuz
Zhanali Pairuz Attacker
19
Aybar Zhaksylykov
Aybar Zhaksylykov Attacker
11
Ivan Sviridov
Ivan Sviridov Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+11'
Event
Hrvoje Ilic
5th Yellowcard
90+11'
Event
Zhan-Ali Payruz
6th Yellowcard
Event
D. Terteryan
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
86'
Event
Maj Mittendorfer → Akmal Bakhtiyarov
9th Substitution
Event
Hakob Hakobyan → A. Sadoyan
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Daouda Togola → Edgar Piloyan
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Philip Ejike → Euloge Fessou Placca
4th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Roman Murtazaev → Duban Palacio
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Zhan-Ali Payruz → M. Touré
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Akmal Bakhtiyarov
4th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Arsen Ashirbekov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
55'
Event
Strahinja Tanasijević
3rd Yellowcard
Event
D. Terteryan → Robert Hakobyan
3rd Substitution
50'
Event
Joseph Sabobo → Domi Massoumou
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Karen Nalbandyan
1st Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Edgar Piloyan
2nd Yellowcard
45+4'
17'
Event
Duban Palacio → Ramazan Orazov
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
On Maj Mittendorfer, off Akmal Bakhtiyarov.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
84
Update Update
Hakob Hakobyan comes on for Arsen Sadoyan.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
Daouda Togola comes on for Edgar Piloyan.
77
Update Update
Roman Murtazaev is on, and Euloge Placca Fessou is off.
77
Update Update
On Zhan Ali Payruz, off Duban Palacio.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Philip Ejike comes on for Momo Fanye Toure.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Hrvoje Ilic.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Akmal Bakhtiyarov.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Update Update
On comes David Terteryan, off goes Robert Hakobyan.
46
Substitution Substitution
Joseph Sabobo is substituted off for Domi Jaures Massoumou.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Strahinja Tanasijevic.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Edgar Piloyan.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Karen Nalbandyan receives a yellow card.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Update Update
Duban Palacio is on, and Ramazan Orazov is off.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw in leg one leaves both Alashkert and Yelimay Semey with work to do in the return fixture. Alashkert maintained greater possession yet could not translate control into a lead after the interval. The significant deviation attached to the home side underscores how the result diverged from typical expectations for the stronger team. With no red cards issued the match proceeded without disciplinary interruptions that might have altered its course. The even halftime score of 0-0 set the stage for a balanced second period that ultimately produced one goal each. Teams will now prepare for the second leg knowing the aggregate remains level and every detail will matter in the concluding encounter.

Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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