Hegelmann Litauen vs Paide Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Today - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen
1 – 1
Paide Paide
Full Time Today 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Vilius Armanavičius - 45+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Abdourahman Badamosi - 37'

CONTEXT

In the opening leg of their two-legged knockout encounter, Hegelmann Litauen faced Paide and the match concluded with a 1-1 draw. The home side and visitors both found the net during the first half, leaving the score level at the interval. Paide enjoyed greater possession throughout the game with 61 percent compared to the 39 percent held by Hegelmann Litauen. Despite being labeled the stronger team, Hegelmann Litauen could not convert their status into a victory on home soil. The result featured a moderate structural deviation linked to the home outfit. No red cards were shown to players from either team, allowing full squads to compete until the final whistle. The even nature of the contest at halftime carried over into the second period without further goals. This outcome prepares both sides for the decisive return match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hegelmann Litauen showed a moderate deviation from expected structural performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing direct alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw proved consistent with pre-match market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were available to evaluate scoring expectations.
  • Event impact: The match produced a 1-1 draw with both goals scored before halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred leaving team structures fully intact throughout.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Aydın

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

?. Uyarcan

1st Assistant

Türkiye

G. Barcın

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

A. Kayatepe

4th Official

Türkiye

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.04
Yellow cards / match 2.62
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.15
Hegelmann Litauen M. Erneta
M. Erneta
VS
Paide T. Kink
T. Kink
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hegelmann Litauen
4.85%
Draw
90.3%
Away Paide
4.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hegelmann Litauen
-2.11%
Draw
+3.29%
Paide
-1.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hegelmann Litauen — Opponent-weighted form score
Paide — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hegelmann Litauen Paide

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hegelmann Litauen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paide

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hegelmann Litauen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paide
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hegelmann Litauen
vs
Paide
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hegelmann Litauen 0.00
Paide 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hegelmann Litauen Paide
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hegelmann Litauen 0.00
Paide 0.00
Hegelmann Litauen
Paide
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Paide had peak pressure around 25'.
  • Hegelmann Litauen started the game with stronger pressure.
Hegelmann Litauen Pressure Paide Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Paide reached the top pressure at 25' (53.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen Home
0 matches
Paide Paide Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:03:53+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
,
Capacity :
N/A
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
C. Aydın
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Gökhan Barcın
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Statistics

Possession
Hegelmann Litauen
48%
Paide
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Shots 5
67 Dangerous attacks 69
39 Possession 61
1 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 15

Match Overview

64 Ball Safe 74
1 Penalties 0
4 Goal Attempts 2
5 Substitutions 5
30 Throwins 16
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

117 Attacks 129

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 16

Squad

Referee : C. Aydın

Squad ▼

1
Lukas Paukštė
Lukas Paukštė Goalkeeper
31
Rokas Bagdonavičius
Rokas Bagdonavičius Goalkeeper
18
Rimvydas Sadauskas
Rimvydas Sadauskas Defender
7
Carlos Duke
Carlos Duke Defender
37
Vedad Radonja
Vedad Radonja Defender
26
Domas Slendzoka
Domas Slendzoka Defender
30
Isaac Barry Ojumah
Isaac Barry Ojumah Defender
5
Ángel Puerto Pineda
Ángel Puerto Pineda Defender
9
Donatas Kazlauskas
Donatas Kazlauskas Midfielder
8
Vilius Armanavičius
Vilius Armanavičius Midfielder
45
Artem Shchedry
Artem Shchedry Midfielder
10
Samuel Yves Oum Gwet
Samuel Yves Oum Gwet Midfielder
16
Matijus Remeikis
Matijus Remeikis Midfielder
77
Wesley Gabriel Freire Arcanjo
Wesley Gabriel Freire Arcanjo Midfielder
19
Dominykas Pašilys
Dominykas Pašilys Midfielder
6
Abdoul Samad Harouna
Abdoul Samad Harouna Midfielder
67
Andrius Kaulinis
Andrius Kaulinis Attacker
21
Esmilis Kaušinis
Esmilis Kaušinis Attacker
22
Darrell Kamdem Tibell
Darrell Kamdem Tibell Attacker
20
Lukas Jonaitis
Lukas Jonaitis Attacker
11
Njoya Abdel Kader
Njoya Abdel Kader Attacker
Referee : C. Aydın

Squad ▼

12
Marko Meerits
Marko Meerits Goalkeeper
56
Mattias Sapp
Mattias Sapp Goalkeeper
99
Ebrima Jarju
Ebrima Jarju Goalkeeper
27
Nikita Baranov
Nikita Baranov Defender
15
Hindrek Ojamaa
Hindrek Ojamaa Defender
7
Edgar Tur
Edgar Tur Defender
5
Gerdo Juhkam
Gerdo Juhkam Defender
2
Michael Lilander
Michael Lilander Defender
3
Victor Hugo dos Santos de Sa
Victor Hugo dos Santos de Sa Defender
4
Pedro Andrade Drozina
Pedro Andrade Drozina Defender
10
Martin Miller
Martin Miller Midfielder
6
Daniel Cabral de Oliveira
Daniel Cabral de Oliveira Midfielder
28
Oskar Hõim
Oskar Hõim Midfielder
21
Ramon Smirnov
Ramon Smirnov Midfielder
43
Willian Gabriel Lins de Sá
Willian Gabriel Lins de Sá Midfielder
16
Aleksandr Šurõgin
Aleksandr Šurõgin Midfielder
24
Romet Nigula
Romet Nigula Midfielder
8
Henrik Ojamaa
Henrik Ojamaa Attacker
9
Henri Anier
Henri Anier Attacker
19
Siim Luts
Siim Luts Attacker
20
Kristofer Piht
Kristofer Piht Attacker
11
Modou Sohna
Modou Sohna Attacker
77
Daniel Luts
Daniel Luts Attacker
30
Abdourahman Badamosi
Abdourahman Badamosi Attacker
17
Pa Cham
Pa Cham Attacker
14
Momodou Jobarteh
Momodou Jobarteh Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Abdoul Harouna → Samuel Oum Gouet
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Donatas Kazlauskas → Wesley
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Domas Slendzoka → Matijus Remeikis
10th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Ramon Smirnov → Martin Miller
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Kristofer Piht → Daniel Luts
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Henri Anier → Abdourahman Badamosi
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Siim Luts → Daniel Cabral
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Romet Nigula → Michael Lilander
5th Substitution
Event
Andrius Kaulinis → Carlos Duke
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Artem Shchedryi → Esmilis Kaušinis
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
Vilius Armanavičius
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+1'
Event
Vilius Armanavičius
1st Missed Penalty
45+1'
37'
Event
Abdourahman Badamosi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

79
Update Update
Domas Slendzoka replaces Matijus Remeikis.
79
Update Update
Abdul Harouna is on, and Samuel Yves Oum Gwet is off.
79
Substitution Substitution
Donatas Kazlauskas is substituted off for Freire Arcanjo Wesley Gabriel.
78
Update Update
Ramon Smirnov is on, and Martin Miller is off.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
On Kristofer Piht, off Daniel Luts.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Update Update
On comes Romet Nigula, replacing Michael Lilander.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Andrius Kaulinis comes on for Carlos Duke.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Artem Shchedry comes on for Esmilis Kausinis.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Cihan Aydin.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the first leg maintains parity in the tie and sets the stage for an exciting second encounter. Hegelmann Litauen will likely seek to improve their efficiency in front of goal during the away fixture, while Paide may aim to translate their possession advantage into more scoring opportunities. With market alignment confirmed and efficiency shifts matching expectations, both teams demonstrated resilience. The absence of expected goals information prevents precise performance evaluation, yet the match highlighted balanced competition. Event impacts remained minimal due to the lack of dismissals or major incidents. Teams must now prepare strategically for the upcoming leg to determine the overall winner.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Paide preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.