Velez vs Milsami Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Bilino Polje Today - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Velez Velez
1 – 1
Milsami Milsami
Full Time Today 5:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Leonid Ignatov - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Phillip Odubia - 54'

CONTEXT

Velez hosted Milsami in the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie and finished with a 1-1 draw. The score was level at halftime after a goalless opening period. Velez controlled 63 percent of possession while Milsami held 37 percent. The stronger side according to available indicators could not convert territorial advantage into a win. No red cards were shown to either team and the match proceeded without major disciplinary interruptions. The outcome leaves the aggregate balanced ahead of the second leg. Both sides created limited clear opportunities and the game remained competitive from start to finish.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Velez recorded a significant structural deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 draw in leg one keeps the tie level for the return fixture.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Christodoulou

Cyprus 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

P. Georghiou

1st Assistant

Cyprus

P. Petrou

2nd Assistant

Cyprus

M. Christoforou

4th Official

Cyprus

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.04
Yellow cards / match 2.62
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.15
Velez I. Rahimić
I. Rahimić
VS
Milsami I. Picuşceac
I. Picuşceac
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Velez
50.06%
Draw
27.17%
Away Milsami
22.78%

Movement

Changes since opening
Velez
+45.21%
Draw
-63.13%
Milsami
+17.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Velez
Milsami
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Velez — Opponent-weighted form score
Milsami — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Velez Milsami

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Velez

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Milsami

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Velez ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Milsami
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Velez Milsami
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Velez Milsami
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Velez
Milsami
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Velez
vs
Milsami
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Velez Milsami
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Velez 0.00
Milsami 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Velez Milsami
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Velez 0.00
Milsami 0.00
Velez
Milsami
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Velez had peak pressure around 38'.
  • Velez started the game with stronger pressure.
Velez Pressure Milsami Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Velez reached the top pressure at 38' (64.25).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Velez Velez Home
0 matches
Milsami Milsami Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:04:45+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadion Bilino Polje
Capacity :
15292
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ioannis Christodoulou
Pavlos Georghiou
Petros Petrou
Marios Christoforou

Statistics

Possession
Velez
57%
Milsami
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Shots 6
119 Dangerous attacks 58
63 Possession 37
9 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

85 Ball Safe 93
3 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 4
34 Throwins 19
1 Assists 1
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

146 Attacks 106

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
18 Fouls 18

Squad

Referee : Ioannis Christodoulou

Squad ▼

—
Belmin Dizdarević
Belmin Dizdarević Goalkeeper
12
Faris Ribić
Faris Ribić Goalkeeper
1
Tarik Karić
Tarik Karić Goalkeeper
8
Ante Hrkać
Ante Hrkać Defender
5
Besim Šerbečić
Besim Šerbečić Defender
—
Goran Antonić
Goran Antonić Defender
23
Klemen Šturm
Klemen Šturm Defender
13
Anes Omerovic
Anes Omerovic Defender
19
Selmir Pidro
Selmir Pidro Defender
44
Ajdin Nukić
Ajdin Nukić Defender
55
Adin Bajrić
Adin Bajrić Defender
18
Said Duranović
Said Duranović Defender
—
Faruk Šetić
Faruk Šetić Defender
—
Eldar Mehić
Eldar Mehić Defender
16
Arman Nur Turković
Arman Nur Turković Defender
6
Rafidine Abdullah
Rafidine Abdullah Midfielder
21
Vasilije Đurić
Vasilije Đurić Midfielder
22
Džani Salčin
Džani Salčin Midfielder
—
Huso Karjašević
Huso Karjašević Midfielder
10
Edo Vehabović
Edo Vehabović Midfielder
80
Nino Stojanović
Nino Stojanović Midfielder
—
Tino Blaž Lauš
Tino Blaž Lauš Midfielder
—
Tarik Šikalo
Tarik Šikalo Midfielder
29
Andro Babić
Andro Babić Midfielder
38
Dženan Puce
Dženan Puce Midfielder
20
Damir Halilović
Damir Halilović Midfielder
17
Ayham Shhade
Ayham Shhade Midfielder
—
Nermin Haskić
Nermin Haskić Attacker
7
Mićo Kuzmanović
Mićo Kuzmanović Attacker
—
Almedin Ziljkić
Almedin Ziljkić Attacker
11
Ivan Šarić
Ivan Šarić Attacker
30
Dominik Dogan
Dominik Dogan Attacker
88
Leonid Ignatov
Leonid Ignatov Attacker
28
Aldin Mešić
Aldin Mešić Attacker
47
Amar Milak
Amar Milak Attacker
77
Edmar Junior Dos Santos Neves
Edmar Junior Dos Santos Neves Attacker
9
Armin Spahić
Armin Spahić Attacker
Referee : Ioannis Christodoulou

Squad ▼

31
Filip Dujmović
Filip Dujmović Goalkeeper
12
Denis Vornic
Denis Vornic Goalkeeper
29
Hennos Asmelash
Hennos Asmelash Defender
2
Veaceslav Posmac
Veaceslav Posmac Defender
6
Ion Ghimp
Ion Ghimp Defender
24
Dehninio Muringen
Dehninio Muringen Defender
30
Frederick Takyi
Frederick Takyi Defender
—
Christopher Nwanze
Christopher Nwanze Defender
—
Décio Ferreira da Silva Neto
Décio Ferreira da Silva Neto Defender
8
Olivier Rommens
Olivier Rommens Midfielder
10
Radu Gînsari
Radu Gînsari Midfielder
7
Daniel Lisu
Daniel Lisu Midfielder
18
Dmitri Galeamov
Dmitri Galeamov Midfielder
27
Sibiry Keita
Sibiry Keita Midfielder
3
William Simba
William Simba Midfielder
18
Abdoul Yoda
Abdoul Yoda Midfielder
32
Vitus Amougui
Vitus Amougui Midfielder
13
Vasile Luchiță
Vasile Luchiță Midfielder
33
Njomgang William Fonkeu
Njomgang William Fonkeu Midfielder
21
Samouil Izountouemoi
Samouil Izountouemoi Attacker
28
Kabamba Tumba Kalabatama
Kabamba Tumba Kalabatama Attacker
—
Kamil Dawid Dudziak
Kamil Dawid Dudziak Attacker
11
Sorin Chele
Sorin Chele Attacker
—
Chiril Silcenco
Chiril Silcenco Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adin Bajric → Armin Spahic
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Leonid Ignatov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Leonard Bulmaga → Igor Souza
7th Substitution
Event
Ante Hrkac 
7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Damir Halilovic → Nino Stojanovic
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Ajdin Nukic
6th Yellowcard
80'
76'
Event
Phillip Odubia
5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Sorin Chele → Dehninio Muringen
5th Substitution
Event
Rafidine Abdullah
4th Yellowcard
68'
67'
Event
Samouil Izountouemoi → Hennos Asmelash
4th Substitution
Event
Leonid Ignatov → Aldin Mesic
3rd Substitution
65'
54'
Event
Phillip Odubia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Aldin Mesic
3rd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Mahir Bešić → Ayham Shhade
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Phillip Odubia → Vasile Luchita
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Aleksandar Angelov
2nd Yellowcard
30'
Event
William Fonkeu
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Leonardo Bulmaga comes on for Igor Souza de Carvalho.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leonid Ignatov scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Mahir Besic.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adin Bajric comes on for Armin Spahic.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ante Hrkac receives a yellow card.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ajdin Nukic.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
74
Update Update
On comes Sorin Chele, off goes Dehninio Muringen.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Rafidine Abdullah.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Rafidine Abdullah.
64
Update Update
Leonid Ignatov replaces Aldin Mesic.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Philip Odubia scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Kabamba Kalabatama.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Mahir Besic comes on for Ayham Shhade.
46
Update Update
On comes Philip Odubia, off goes Vasile Luchita.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Anes Omerovic.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 result in the opening leg provides both teams with a platform for the decisive second match. Velez maintained higher possession yet failed to translate control into a lead. Milsami defended solidly and secured a valuable away point. With no dismissals recorded the contest stayed eleven versus eleven for the full duration. The even halftime score reflected a measured first half from each side. Overall the draw maintains parity in the aggregate and shifts emphasis to the return leg where tactical adjustments may prove decisive. Both teams will review chance creation and set-piece execution ahead of the next encounter.

Velez vs Milsami preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.