Caernarfon Town vs Levadia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
The Oval Today - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
0 Winner 5
Levadia Levadia
Full Time Today 5:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Enock Otoo - 78'
Mihkel Ainsalu - 47'
Mark Oliver Roosnupp - 45+1'
João Pedro - 41'
Rasmus Peetson - 15'
Ben Nash 63' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Caernarfon Town hosted Levadia in the first leg of their tie and suffered a heavy 0-5 defeat. Levadia led 3-0 at halftime before adding two more goals after the break. Caernarfon Town held 44 percent possession against Levadia's 56 percent yet could not prevent the visitors from dominating. A red card to the home side further tilted proceedings in the second half. Despite being labeled the stronger team beforehand Levadia delivered a clinical performance that produced the final margin. The result leaves Caernarfon Town facing a substantial deficit ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Caernarfon Town 0-5 Levadia. Levadia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the final performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: No xG figures were recorded for either Caernarfon Town or Levadia.
  • Event impact: A red card issued to Caernarfon Town shaped second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was listed among the second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Švėgžda

Lithuania 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

A. Stepanovas

1st Assistant

Lithuania

B. Kikutis

2nd Assistant

Lithuania

K. Bartuškevičius

4th Official

Lithuania

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.04
Yellow cards / match 2.62
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.15
Caernarfon Town R. Davies
R. Davies
VS
Levadia V. Zahovaiko
V. Zahovaiko
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Caernarfon Town
22.01%
Draw
24.6%
Away Levadia
53.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
Caernarfon Town
+19.26%
Draw
+21%
Levadia
-40.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Caernarfon Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Levadia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Caernarfon Town Levadia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Caernarfon Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Levadia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Caernarfon Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Levadia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Caernarfon Town
vs
Levadia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Caernarfon Town 0.00
Levadia 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Caernarfon Town 0.00
Levadia 0.00
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Caernarfon Town had peak pressure around 57'.
  • Levadia started the game with stronger pressure.
Caernarfon Town Pressure Levadia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Caernarfon Town reached the top pressure at 57' (62.48).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town Home
0 matches
Levadia Levadia Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:04:58+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
The Oval
Capacity :
3000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dovydas Švėgžda
Aleksandras Stepanovas
Benas Kikutis
Kęstutis Bartuškevičius

Statistics

Possession
Caernarfon Town
45%
Levadia
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 5
2 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 59
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 73
0 Penalties 1
3 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 15
0 Assists 3
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

76 Attacks 75

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 8

Squad

Referee : Dovydas Švėgžda

Squad ▼

1
Connor Roberts
Connor Roberts Goalkeeper
13
Hari Thomas
Hari Thomas Goalkeeper
15
Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith Defender
27
Ryan Sears
Ryan Sears Defender
—
Chris Marriott
Chris Marriott Defender
—
Ben Nash
Ben Nash Defender
5
Phil Mooney
Phil Mooney Defender
—
Jordan Piggott
Jordan Piggott Defender
3
Matthew Jones
Matthew Jones Defender
2
Morgan Rhys Wyn Owen
Morgan Rhys Wyn Owen Defender
8
Danny Gosset
Danny Gosset Midfielder
7
Paulo Mendes
Paulo Mendes Midfielder
—
Noah Edwards
Noah Edwards Midfielder
10
Darren Thomas
Darren Thomas Midfielder
6
Iwan Lewis
Iwan Lewis Midfielder
22
Adrian Cieślewicz
Adrian Cieślewicz Attacker
—
Sion Bradley
Sion Bradley Attacker
—
Connor Salisbury
Connor Salisbury Attacker
—
Zack Clarke
Zack Clarke Attacker
—
Osian Wyn Evans
Osian Wyn Evans Attacker
Referee : Dovydas Švėgžda

Squad ▼

99
Karl Andre Vallner
Karl Andre Vallner Goalkeeper
1
Oliver Ani
Oliver Ani Goalkeeper
6
Rasmus Peetson
Rasmus Peetson Defender
29
Joseph Saliste
Joseph Saliste Defender
23
Frank Liivak
Frank Liivak Defender
4
Tanel Tammik
Tanel Tammik Defender
20
Abraham Nnamdi Nwankwo
Abraham Nnamdi Nwankwo Defender
71
Kauã Davi Fernandes Braga
Kauã Davi Fernandes Braga Defender
35
Victory Sunday Iboro
Victory Sunday Iboro Defender
11
Mihkel Ainsalu
Mihkel Ainsalu Midfielder
8
Aleksandr Zakarlyuka
Aleksandr Zakarlyuka Midfielder
18
Alexandre Lopes Gomes
Alexandre Lopes Gomes Midfielder
14
Aleksander Švedovski
Aleksander Švedovski Midfielder
21
Maksimilian Skvortsov
Maksimilian Skvortsov Midfielder
—
Carlos Torres
Carlos Torres Midfielder
17
Robert Kirss
Robert Kirss Attacker
5
Mark Oliver Roosnupp
Mark Oliver Roosnupp Attacker
36
João Pedro de Moura Siembarski
João Pedro de Moura Siembarski Attacker
7
Gregor Lehtmets
Gregor Lehtmets Attacker
9
Bubacarr Tambedou
Bubacarr Tambedou Attacker
10
Wendell Gabriel Mendes Craveiro
Wendell Gabriel Mendes Craveiro Attacker
33
Enock Kofi Otoo
Enock Kofi Otoo Attacker
19
Moussa Felix Sambe
Moussa Felix Sambe Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Ben Nash
2nd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Wendell
4th Yellowcard
Event
Noah Edwards
3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Iwan Lewis → Zack Clarke
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Darren Thomas → Danny Gossett
10th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Alexandre → João Pedro
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Robert Kirss → Maksimilian Skvortsov
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Enock Otoo
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
76'
Event
Kauã Davi → Frank Liivak
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Enock Otoo → Mark Oliver Roosnupp
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Wendell → Bubacarr Tambedou
6th Substitution
Event
Morgan Owen → Sion Bradley
3rd Substitution
72'
64'
Event
Maksimilian Skvortsov
1st Missed Penalty
Event
Ben Nash
1st Redcard
63'
Event
Osian Evans → Adrian Cieslewicz
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Offrande Zanzala → Paulo Mendes
2nd Substitution
60'
47'
Event
Mihkel Ainsalu
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Mark Oliver Roosnupp
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
41'
Event
João Pedro
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
20'
Event
Maksimilian Skvortsov
1st Yellowcard
15'
Event
Rasmus Peetson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wendell receives a yellow card.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Edwards receives a yellow card.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Enock Otoo scores, making it 5-0, assisted by Mihkel Ainsalu.
76
Update Update
Wendell replaces Bubacarr Tambedou.
76
Update Update
Goal! Enock Otoo scores, making it 5-0, assisted by Mihkel Ainsalu.
76
Substitution Substitution
Enock Otoo is substituted off for Mark Oliver Roosnupp.
72
Substitution Substitution
Morgan Owen is substituted for Sion Bradley.
64
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Maksimilian Skvortsov.
63
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
61
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
60
Update Update
On Offrande Zanzala, off Paulo Mendes.
60
Update Update
Osian Evans comes on for Adrian Cieslewicz.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-4.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mark Oliver Roosnupp scores, making it 0-3.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joao Pedro scores, making it 0-2.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Nash receives a yellow card.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Dovydas Svegzda.

CONCLUSION

Levadia produced a commanding display that yielded five unanswered goals and a 0-3 halftime advantage. The visitors capitalized on their opportunities while Caernarfon Town struggled to create meaningful threats even before the red card reduced their numbers. Possession favored Levadia yet the decisive factor remained clinical finishing combined with defensive resilience. Caernarfon Town now confronts a difficult task in the second leg after this result. Levadia will look to maintain composure and protect their aggregate lead when the teams meet again.

Caernarfon Town vs Levadia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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