CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Stadion Vasil Levski Today - 6:00 PM
Europa League
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
3 Winner 2
Derry City Derry City
Full Time Today 6:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Ioannis Pittas - 53', 19'
Bruno Jordão - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
James Olayinka - 88'
Liam Boyce - 31'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. CSKA Sofia 3–2 Derry City. The result saw CSKA Sofia take the points. CSKA Sofia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City. CSKA Sofia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. Kastrati

Kosovo 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

League averages

Europa League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.86
Yellow cards / match 3.6
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.26
CSKA Sofia H. Yanev
H. Yanev
VS
Derry City T. Lynch
T. Lynch
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Sofia
96.05%
Draw
3.31%
Away Derry City
0.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
CSKA Sofia
+1.75%
Draw
-1.75%
Derry City
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Derry City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Sofia Derry City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derry City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Sofia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derry City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Sofia
vs
Derry City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Sofia 0.00
Derry City 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Sofia Derry City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Sofia 0.00
Derry City 0.00
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CSKA Sofia had peak pressure around 66'.
  • CSKA Sofia started the game with stronger pressure.
CSKA Sofia Pressure Derry City Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CSKA Sofia reached the top pressure at 66' (58.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia Home
2 matches
Derry City Derry City Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:05:06+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadion Vasil Levski
Capacity :
22015
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Visar Kastrati

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Sofia
64%
Derry City
36%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
10 Shots 4
106 Dangerous attacks 51
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 3
30 Throwins 21
2 Assists 2

Attacking

150 Attacks 80

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 12

Squad

Referee : Visar Kastrati

Squad ▼

25
Dimitar Ivanov Evtimov
Dimitar Ivanov Evtimov Goalkeeper
21
Fedor Lapoukhov
Fedor Lapoukhov Goalkeeper
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Defender
17
Ángelo Martino
Ángelo Martino Defender
4
Adrián Lapeña Ruiz
Adrián Lapeña Ruiz Defender
19
Andrey Yordanov Yordanov
Andrey Yordanov Yordanov Defender
5
Lumbardh Dellova
Lumbardh Dellova Defender
32
Facundo Rodríguez
Facundo Rodríguez Defender
2
David Samuel Custódio Lima
David Samuel Custódio Lima Defender
14
Teodor Valentinov Ivanov
Teodor Valentinov Ivanov Defender
3
Tamimou Ouorou
Tamimou Ouorou Defender
8
Stefano Sensi
Stefano Sensi Midfielder
6
Bruno André Cavaco Jordão
Bruno André Cavaco Jordão Midfielder
7
Max Ebong Ngome
Max Ebong Ngome Midfielder
94
Isaac Solet Bomawoko
Isaac Solet Bomawoko Midfielder
99
James Armel Eto'o Eyenga
James Armel Eto'o Eyenga Midfielder
80
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski Midfielder
30
Petko Hristov Panayotov
Petko Hristov Panayotov Midfielder
28
Ioannis Pittas
Ioannis Pittas Attacker
2
—
Matthias Phaeton
Matthias Phaeton Attacker
10
Joël Zwarts
Joël Zwarts Attacker
11
Mohamed Amine Brahimi
Mohamed Amine Brahimi Attacker
38
Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira Attacker
9
Santiago Leandro Godoy
Santiago Leandro Godoy Attacker
77
Alejandro Piedrahita Díaz
Alejandro Piedrahita Díaz Attacker
22
Kevin Dodaj
Kevin Dodaj Attacker
Referee : Visar Kastrati

Squad ▼

1
Brian Philip Maher
Brian Philip Maher Goalkeeper
13
Tom Norcott
Tom Norcott Goalkeeper
26
Shea Callister
Shea Callister Goalkeeper
23
Cameron Dummigan
Cameron Dummigan Defender
4
Jamie Stott
Jamie Stott Defender
3
Patrick McClean
Patrick McClean Defender
2
Barry Cotter
Barry Cotter Defender
19
Brandon Fleming
Brandon Fleming Defender
6
Rob Slevin
Rob Slevin Defender
—
Christy Grogan
Christy Grogan Defender
22
Conor Barr
Conor Barr Defender
—
Ciaran Mullan
Ciaran Mullan Defender
—
Ryan Long
Ryan Long Defender
33
Oisin O'Brien
Oisin O'Brien Defender
16
James McClean
James McClean Midfielder
20
Carl Winchester
Carl Winchester Midfielder
10
Darragh Markey
Darragh Markey Midfielder
—
Ellis Chapman
Ellis Chapman Midfielder
28
James Olayinka
James Olayinka Midfielder
8
Adam O'Reilly
Adam O'Reilly Midfielder
15
James Clarke
James Clarke Midfielder
—
Callum Doherty
Callum Doherty Midfielder
35
Liam Kelly
Liam Kelly Midfielder
31
Callum Downey
Callum Downey Midfielder
34
Caolan O'Donnell
Caolan O'Donnell Midfielder
27
Liam Boyce
Liam Boyce Attacker
7
Michael Duffy
Michael Duffy Attacker
11
Gavin Whyte
Gavin Whyte Attacker
21
Kévin David Nogueira Carvalho Carvalho Santos
Kévin David Nogueira Carvalho Carvalho Santos Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
James Olayinka
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Alejandro Piedrahita → Stefano Sensi
6th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
James McClean → Rob Slevin
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Barry Cotter
Tripping / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mohamed Brahimi → Isaac Solet
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Joël Zwarts → Leandro Godoy
4th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Jamie Stott → Christy Grogan
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Nick Twisk → Cameron Dummigan
1st Substitution
Event
Ioannis Pittas
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Jordão
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
41'
31'
Event
Liam Boyce
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ioannis Pittas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

Match Commentary

89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alejandro Piedrahita comes on for Stefano Sensi.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Update Update
James McClean is on, and Rob Slevin is off.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Barry Cotter.
72
Update Update
On comes Joel Zwarts, off goes Santiago Leandro Godoy.
72
Update Update
Mohamed Brahimi comes on for Isaac Solet.
71
Update Update
Jamie Stott is on, and Christy Grogan is off.
68
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Nick Twisk comes on for Cameron Dummigan.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Isaac Solet scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Santiago Leandro Godoy.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Visar Kastrati.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City. Structural assessment: CSKA Sofia exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

CSKA Sofia vs Derry City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Europa League, Europe View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.