United States vs Belgium Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Seattle Stadium Tue, 7 Jul - 12:00 AM
World Cup
United States USA
1 Winner 4
Belgium BEL
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 12:00 AM
Round of 16
Malik Tillman - 31'
Goal
|
Goal
Romelu Lukaku - 90+3'
Hans Vanaken - 57'
Charles De Ketelaere - 33', 9'

CONTEXT

The United States hosted Belgium in a match that ended 1-4. Halftime score stood at 1-2. United States held 56 percent possession yet managed only 0.62 expected goals while Belgium recorded 2.18 expected goals. The stronger team on paper was United States but Belgium secured the win. No red cards were shown to either side. The outcome proved consistent with the expected goals figures. Pre-match indicators showed significant deviation with Belgium as the deviation team. Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall patterns observed during the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Belgium produced a significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the overall performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: The 1-4 result aligned with the 0.62 to 2.18 xG split.
  • Market alignment: The outcome did not align with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Belgium surpassed xG expectations by scoring four goals.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered the flow beyond standard play.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Makhadmeh

Jordan 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

M. Al Kalaf

1st Assistant

Jordan

A. Al Roalle

2nd Assistant

Jordan

P. Atcho

4th Official

Gabon

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 2.26
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.16
United States M. Pochettino Trossero
M. Pochettino Trossero
VS
Belgium R. Garcia
R. Garcia
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bosnia and Herzegovina Rank: W
Türkiye Rank: L
Australia Rank: W
Paraguay Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Senegal Rank: W
New Zealand Rank: W
Iran Rank: D
Egypt Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home United States
37.05%
Draw
29.24%
Away Belgium
33.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
United States
+36.85%
Draw
+27.32%
Belgium
-64.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.78
28.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
United States
Belgium
Power Score
37.78
28.15
League Position
1
1
Global Rank
-
9

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
United States — Opponent-weighted form score
Belgium — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) United States Belgium

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

United States

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Belgium

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

United States
vs
Belgium
Created Set-piece attacking threat
United States Belgium
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
73%
12%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.55 vs -0.26
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
United States Belgium
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
12%
73%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.26 vs +0.55
United States
Belgium
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
United States
vs
Belgium
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
United States Belgium
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
United States 0.00
Belgium 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
United States Belgium
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
United States 0.00
Belgium 0.00
United States
Belgium
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • USA had peak pressure around 89'.
  • BEL started the game with stronger pressure.
USA Pressure BEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: USA reached the top pressure at 89' (82.47).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

United States USA Home
1 matches
Belgium BEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:02:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Matthew
United States
24 F. Matthew
A. Freeman
United States
16 A. Freeman
T. Ream
United States
13 T. Ream
C. Richards
United States
3 C. Richards
S. Dest
Substitution
United States
2 S. Dest
T. Adams
Substitution
United States
4 T. Adams
M. Tillman
United States
17 M. Tillman
A. Robinson
Substitution
United States
5 A. Robinson
W. McKennie
United States
8 W. McKennie
C. Pulisic
Substitution
United States
10 C. Pulisic
R. Pepi
United States
9 R. Pepi
Pitch
T. Courtois
Belgium
1 T. Courtois
T. Castagne
Belgium
21 T. Castagne
A. Theate
Belgium
3 A. Theate
B. Mechele
Belgium
4 B. Mechele
T. Meunier
Belgium
15 T. Meunier
N. Raskin
Substitution
Belgium
23 N. Raskin
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
L. Trossard
Substitution
Belgium
10 L. Trossard
K. De Bruyne
Belgium
7 K. De Bruyne
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
R. Lukaku Menama
Belgium
9 R. Lukaku Menama

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 07, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium :
Seattle Stadium
Capacity :
68740
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh
Mohammad Mustafa Hassan Al Kalaf
Ahmad Moannes Nadi Al Roalle
Pierre Ghislain Atcho

Statistics

Possession
USA
54%
BEL
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 4
43 Dangerous attacks 33
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

45 Ball Safe 61
6 Goal Kicks 7
3 Goal Attempts 10
7 Substitutions 6
25 Throwins 18
10 Successful Headers 11
0 Assists 3
0 Injuries 1
19 Dribble Attempts 21
10 Successful Dribbles 10
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48

Attacking

127 Attacks 93
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

37 Long Passes 59
527 Passes 408
458 Successful Passes 331
87 Successful Passes Percentage 81
5 Key Passes 13
20 Successful Long Passes 19
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

3 Saves 1
21 Tackles 23
9 Interceptions 9
50 Duels Won 56

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI ▼

24
Matt Freese
Matt Freese Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Sergiño Dest
Sergiño Dest Defender
6.72
—
Sergiño Dest
46'
3
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
7.21
5
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
7.18
—
Antonee Robinson
90+2'
13
Tim Ream
Tim Ream Defender
7.14
16
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman Defender
7.19
4
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Midfielder
6.88
—
Tyler Adams
72'
8
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
7.12
10
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic Midfielder
6.99
—
Christian Pulisic
59'
17
Malik Tillman
Malik Tillman Midfielder
7.32
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi Attacker
6.66
Referee : Adham Mohammad Tumah Makhadmeh

Starting XI ▼

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
6.88
3
Arthur Theate
Arthur Theate Defender
6.91
4
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
7.11
15
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Defender
6.84
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
7.04
7
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Midfielder
7.4
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.72
23
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
6.88
—
Nicolas Raskin
89'
9
Romelu Lukaku
Romelu Lukaku Attacker
6.96
10
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Attacker
7.9
—
Leandro Trossard
89'
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Romelu Lukaku
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Max Arfsten → Antonee Robinson
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Haji Wright → Folarin Balogun
10th Substitution
90+2'
89'
Event
Alexis Saelemaekers → Leandro Trossard
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Axel Witsel → Nicolas Raskin
8th Substitution
Event
Ricardo Pepi → Tyler Adams
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Malik Tillman
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
67'
Event
Jérémy Doku → Dodi Lukébakio
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Romelu Lukaku → Charles De Ketelaere
5th Substitution
Event
Sebastian Berhalter → Christian Pulisic
3rd Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Hans Vanaken
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Giovanni Reyna → Sergiño Dest
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Weston McKennie
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
33'
Event
Charles De Ketelaere
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Malik Tillman
Free Kick / 2nd Goal
31'
21'
Event
Hans Vanaken → Amadou Onana
1st Substitution
9'
Event
Charles De Ketelaere
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Berhalter (USA).
90
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Belgium wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Haji Wright comes on for Folarin Balogun.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Max Arfsten comes on for Antonee Robinson.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes a 4-1 lead as Romelu Lukaku scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Hans Vanaken.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Alexis Saelemaekers comes on for Leandro Trossard.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Axel Witsel comes on for Nicolas Raskin.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Sebastian Berhalter (USA).
87
Update Update
Jérémy Doku wins a free kick for Belgium in the attacking half.
86
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA wins a free kick in the defensive half.
86
Update Update
Timothy Castagne commits a foul for Belgium.
86
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Jérémy Doku.
84
Update Update
Sebastian Berhalter wins a free kick for the USA in the attacking half.
84
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin commits a foul for Belgium.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after a concession by Brandon Mechele.
82
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Folarin Balogun from the USA has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that is saved.
82
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Folarin Balogun (USA) heads the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
81
Update Update
Weston McKennie commits a foul for the USA.
81
Update Update
Jérémy Doku wins a free kick for Belgium on the left wing.
79
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Sebastian Berhalter from the USA, who took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
77
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA wins a free kick on the left wing.
77
Update Update
Timothy Castagne commits a foul for Belgium.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonee Robinson (USA).
76
Update Update
Timothy Castagne wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA commits a foul.
75
Update Update
Hans Vanaken wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Ricardo Pepi comes on for Tyler Adams.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Malik Tillman (USA).
69
Update Update
Youri Tielemans from Belgium is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malik Tillman from the USA receives a yellow card for a foul.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Jérémy Doku comes on for Dodi Lukébakio.
67
Update Update
Malik Tillman (USA) is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Nathan Ngoy of Belgium.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Romelu Lukaku comes on for Charles De Ketelaere.
66
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Alex Freeman's header from the center of the box goes high and wide to the right. He was assisted by Sebastian Berhalter, who delivered a cross after a corner.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after Youri Tielemans concedes.
62
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Chris Richards concedes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Charles De Ketelaere.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Sebastian Berhalter comes on for Christian Pulisic.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium leads 3-1 against the USA as Hans Vanaken scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
53
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
53
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Christian Pulisic from the USA.
51
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Tim Ream concedes.
47
Update Update
Malik Tillman from the USA is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
47
Update Update
Youri Tielemans commits a foul for Belgium.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the USA: Giovanni Reyna comes on for Sergiño Dest.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at USA 1, Belgium 2.
45
Corner Corner
USA wins a corner after Nathan Ngoy concedes.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Alex Freeman's header from the center of the box goes wide to the left, assisted by Malik Tillman.
45
Update Update
VAR decision: the previous decision has been cancelled.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Belgium wins a corner after Alex Freeman concedes.
45
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Dodi Lukébakio (Belgium) had a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that went to the right. Nathan Ngoy assisted after a corner.
45
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin commits a foul for Belgium.
45
Update Update
Malik Tillman wins a free kick for the USA in the defensive half.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the USA after Nathan Ngoy concedes.
43
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Dodi Lukébakio (Belgium) heads the ball from the center of the box after a set piece situation.
42
Update Update
Hans Vanaken wins a free kick for Belgium on the left wing.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Chris Richards (USA).
39
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Nicolas Raskin's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the center of the goal by Matt Freese. The shot was assisted by Youri Tielemans with a cross.
38
Corner Corner
Belgium is awarded a corner after Tyler Adams concedes.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Weston McKennie from the USA receives a yellow card for a foul.
35
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Weston McKennie commits a foul for the USA.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes the lead 2-1 as Charles De Ketelaere scores with a header from very close range.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Malik Tillman scores for the USA with a right-footed shot from a free kick into the high center of the goal. The match is now 1-1 against Belgium.
30
Update Update
Brandon Mechele commits a foul for Belgium.
30
Update Update
Folarin Balogun from the USA is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
29
Update Update
Nicolas Raskin commits a foul for Belgium.
29
Update Update
Weston McKennie of the USA is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are set to continue.
24
Update Update
Sergiño Dest commits a foul for the USA.
24
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
24
Update Update
Maxim De Cuyper wins a free kick for Belgium in the defensive half.
21
Update Update
The match is currently delayed due to an injury to Brandon Mechele from Belgium.
21
Update Update
Dodi Lukébakio commits a foul for Belgium.
21
Update Update
Tyler Adams wins a free kick for the USA in the defensive half.
21
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
20
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Belgium: Hans Vanaken comes on for Amadou Onana.
18
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
17
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Amadou Onana from Belgium.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Leandro Trossard (Belgium) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
14
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Chris Richards from the USA.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams (USA).
13
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
11
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Raskin's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
11
Update Update
Charles De Ketelaere of Belgium is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Belgium takes the lead 1-0 against the USA. Charles De Ketelaere scores with a right-footed shot from very close range to the center of the goal.
8
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Youri Tielemans (Belgium) took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
7
Update Update
Dodi Lukébakio from Belgium wins a free kick in the defensive half.
7
Update Update
Antonee Robinson commits a foul for the USA.
2
Attempt Attempt
Charles De Ketelaere takes a header, but it is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Adham Mohammad.
1
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Youri Tielemans takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Castagne takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Belgium converted their expected goal advantage into a clear victory despite United States controlling more of the ball. The halftime lead of 2-1 expanded in the second period as Belgium added two further goals. United States created limited high quality opportunities throughout and finished with a single goal. The absence of any dismissals allowed both teams to maintain their intended structures. Belgium demonstrated clinical finishing that exceeded their already superior xG total. United States will review chance creation shortfalls while Belgium can build on this result. The match highlighted the gap between possession share and actual scoring threat.

United States vs Belgium preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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