Mexico vs England Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Mexico City Stadium Mon, 6 Jul - 1:00 AM
World Cup
Mexico MEX
2 Winner 3
England ENG
Full Time Mon, 6 Jul 1:00 AM
Round of 16
Raúl Jiménez - 69' (P)
Julián Quiñones - 42'
Goal
|
Goal
Harry Kane  - 60' (P)
Jude Bellingham - 38', 36'
|
Red Card Jarell Quansah  54'

CONTEXT

Mexico hosted England in a match that concluded with a 2-3 scoreline. At halftime the score stood at 1-2. Mexico controlled 67 percent of possession and posted 2.1 expected goals against England's 1.8. Despite these advantages the home side could not secure the win. England received one red card during the contest while Mexico finished with none. The stronger pre-match side ultimately fell short as the visitors claimed victory. Second-half adjustments centered on the red-card distortion that altered team structures. The outcome proved inconsistent with xG projections yet remained aligned with market signals. A 63 percent deviation was recorded in favor of England.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: England claimed the result despite Mexico holding 67 percent possession and creating more expected goals.
  • Efficiency shift: Team performances stayed in line with pre-match efficiency benchmarks across both halves.
  • xG alignment: Mexico recorded 2.1 expected goals to England's 1.8 but did not translate the edge into victory.
  • Market alignment: The final 2-3 outcome matched market projections despite the significant deviation level.
  • xG expectations: The lower expected-goals side prevailed, producing a result inconsistent with xG data.
  • Event impact: The away red card shaped second-half adjustments and overall match structure.
  • Red card distortion: England's red card introduced measurable distortion to second-half team shapes and flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Faghani

Iran 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

G. Lakrindis

1st Assistant

Australia

A. Lindsay

2nd Assistant

Australia

J. Jayed

4th Official

Morocco

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 2.26
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.16
Mexico J. Aguirre Onaindía
J. Aguirre Onaindía
VS
England T. Tuchel
T. Tuchel
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ecuador Rank: W
Czech Republic Rank: W
Korea Republic Rank: W
South Africa Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Congo DR Rank: W
Panama Rank: W
Ghana Rank: D
Croatia Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mexico
31.83%
Draw
31.21%
Away England
36.95%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mexico
+31.64%
Draw
+24.8%
England
-56.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
41.48
36.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mexico
England
Power Score
41.48
36.3
League Position
1
1
Global Rank
15
4

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mexico — Opponent-weighted form score
England — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mexico England

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mexico

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

England

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mexico
vs
England
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mexico England
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
58%
47%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.21 vs +0.16
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mexico England
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
47%
58%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.16 vs -0.21
Mexico
England
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mexico
vs
England
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mexico England
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mexico 0.00
England 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mexico England
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mexico 0.00
England 0.00
Mexico
England
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MEX had peak pressure around 86'.
  • ENG started the game with stronger pressure.
MEX Pressure ENG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MEX reached the top pressure at 86' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mexico MEX Home
0 matches
England ENG Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T01:00:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Rangel Aguilar
Mexico
1 J. Rangel Aguilar
J. Sánchez Ramos
Substitution
Mexico
2 J. Sánchez Ramos
C. Montes Castro
Substitution
Mexico
3 (C) C. Montes Castro
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
Mexico
23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
G. Mora Zambrano
Substitution
Mexico
19 G. Mora Zambrano
É. Lira Méndez
Mexico
6 É. Lira Méndez
L. Romo Barrón
Substitution
Mexico
7 L. Romo Barrón
R. Alvarado Hernández
Mexico
25 R. Alvarado Hernández
R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Mexico
9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
J. Quiñones Quiñones
Substitution
Mexico
16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
Pitch
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
N. O'Reilly
Substitution
England
3 N. O'Reilly
M. Guehi
England
6 M. Guehi
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
J. Quansah
England
26 J. Quansah
D. Rice
England
4 D. Rice
E. Anderson
Substitution
England
8 E. Anderson
A. Gordon
England
18 A. Gordon
J. Bellingham
England
10 J. Bellingham
B. Saka
Substitution
England
7 B. Saka
H. Kane
Substitution
England
9 (C) H. Kane

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 06, 2026, 01:00 AM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium :
Mexico City Stadium
Capacity :
87523
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alireza Faghani
G. Lakrindis
Andrew Lindsay
Jalal Jayed

Statistics

Possession
MEX
62%
ENG
38%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
8 Shots 1
82 Dangerous attacks 22
67 Possession 33
12 Corners 2
6 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 78
1 Penalties 1
4 Goal Kicks 13
13 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 4
24 Throwins 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
10 Successful Headers 10
0 Assists 2
1 Injuries 0
11 Dribble Attempts 18
5 Successful Dribbles 8
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

Attacking

126 Attacks 54

Possession

42 Long Passes 45
455 Passes 244
420 Successful Passes 195
92 Successful Passes Percentage 80
15 Key Passes 4
30 Successful Long Passes 22
71 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

2 Saves 3
16 Tackles 18
7 Interceptions 4
37 Duels Won 50

Build-up

49 Total Crosses 4
11 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Alireza Faghani

Starting XI ▼

1
Raúl Rangel
Raúl Rangel Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Jorge Sánchez
Jorge Sánchez Defender
7.13
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
Álvaro Fidalgo
Midfielder79'
7.07
3
César Montes
César Montes (C) Defender
7.03
4
Edson Álvarez
Edson Álvarez
Midfielder46'
6.87
5
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
6.98
23
Jesús Gallardo
Jesús Gallardo Defender
6.78
6
Érik Lira
Érik Lira Midfielder
6.96
7
Luis Romo
Luis Romo Midfielder
7.22
26
Brian Gutiérrez
Brian Gutiérrez
Midfielder61'
6.74
19
Gilberto Mora
Gilberto Mora Midfielder
6.75
11
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
Attacker61'
6.38
9
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez Attacker
7.08
16
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones Attacker
7.65
22
Guillermo Martínez Ayala
Guillermo Martínez Ayala
Attacker81'
6.47
25
Roberto Alvarado
Roberto Alvarado Attacker
7.55
Referee : Alireza Faghani

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6.73
2
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
6.87
3
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
6.82
25
Djed Spence
Djed Spence
Defender74'
6.75
6
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
7.38
26
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Defender
6.78
4
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.48
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka Midfielder
6.97
5
John Stones
John Stones
Defender57'
6.28
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.43
15
Dan Burn
Dan Burn
Defender75'
7.37
10
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Midfielder
2
7.55
18
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon Midfielder
6.83
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane (C) Attacker
7.69
17
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers
Midfielder90'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Santiago Gimenez↓ → Santiago Gimenez
10th Substitution
90+9'
90+9'
Event
Jordan Henderson 
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Johan Vásquez
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+8'
90'
Event
Morgan Rogers → Harry Kane 
9th Substitution
Event
Guillermo Martínez Ayala → Julián Quiñones
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Álvaro Fidalgo → Jorge Sánchez
7th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Dan Burn → Elliot Anderson
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Djed Spence → Nico O'Reilly
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Nico O'Reilly
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jorge Sánchez
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Raúl Jiménez
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
69'
68'
Event
Marc Guéhi
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Brian Gutiérrez
Penalty awarded
67'
Event
Santiago Gimenez → Gilberto Mora
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Brian Gutiérrez → Luis Romo
4th Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Harry Kane 
Penalty / 1st Penalty
57'
Event
John Stones → Bukayo Saka
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Jarell Quansah 
Foul / 1st Redcard
53'
Event
Jarell Quansah 
Card adjusted
Event
Edson Álvarez → César Montes 
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Julián Quiñones
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
38'
Event
Jude Bellingham
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Jude Bellingham
Header / 1st Goal
1'
Event
Declan Rice
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Álvaro Fidalgo's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Jordan Pickford. The assist came from Brian Gutiérrez.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 11 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Roberto Alvarado from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jude Bellingham of England.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Morgan Rogers comes on for Harry Kane.
90
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jude Bellingham's right-footed shot from over 35 yards is saved in the top right corner by Raúl Rangel. Anthony Gordon provided the assist.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jesús Gallardo (Mexico) has a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes to the right. Johan Vásquez provided the assist.
90
Attempt Attempt
Edson Álvarez's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Álvaro Fidalgo.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. He was assisted by Álvaro Fidalgo.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Henderson of England receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Johan Vásquez of Mexico receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Mexico is awarded a corner after Djed Spence concedes it.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by John Stones.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after John Stones concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Dan Burn.
90
Corner Corner
Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending the ball to the left after a corner.
90
Attempt Attempt
Álvaro Fidalgo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Álvaro Fidalgo from Mexico takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
89
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez commits a foul for Mexico.
89
Update Update
Ezri Konsa wins a free kick for England on the right wing.
87
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez is caught offside for Mexico.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Ezri Konsa concedes.
84
Update Update
Ezri Konsa wins a free kick for England in the attacking half.
84
Update Update
VAR decision: the previous decision has been cancelled.
82
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Giménez from Mexico misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Guillermo Martínez comes on for Julián Quiñones.
80
Corner Corner
Edson Álvarez (Mexico) misses the attempt with a header from very close range after a corner.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after John Stones concedes.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Álvaro Fidalgo comes on for Jorge Sánchez.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Jordan Pickford.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Djed Spence concedes.
78
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Brian Gutiérrez from Mexico has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box that is blocked. Érik Lira provided the assist.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Dan Burn comes on for Elliot Anderson.
74
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: Djed Spence comes on for Nico O'Reilly.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nico O'Reilly from England receives a yellow card.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jorge Sánchez of Mexico receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Delay over. They are ready to continue.
71
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
70
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Nico O'Reilly from England.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Raúl Jiménez scores for Mexico with a right-footed shot. The score is now Mexico 2, England 3.
68
Update Update
Harry Kane of England concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
67
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Mexico.
66
Update Update
Julián Quiñones wins a free kick for Mexico in the attacking half.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Jude Bellingham (England).
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after John Stones concedes.
62
Update Update
Brian Gutiérrez from Mexico.
62
Update Update
England is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
62
Update Update
Edson Álvarez commits a foul for Mexico.
62
Update Update
Harry Kane wins a free kick for England on the left wing.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Brian Gutiérrez comes on for Luis Romo.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Santiago Giménez comes on for Gilberto Mora.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Harry Kane scores for England with a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match remains 1-3.
58
Update Update
Raúl Rangel from Mexico concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
58
Update Update
Penalty awarded to England as Anthony Gordon is fouled in the penalty area.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for England: John Stones comes on for Bukayo Saka.
57
Attempt Attempt
Julián Quiñones from Mexico misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending the ball to the left. He was assisted by Jesús Gallardo.
55
Update Update
Anthony Gordon wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Jesús Gallardo of Mexico.
54
Red Card Red Card Important
Jarell Quansah from England receives a red card.
53
Update Update
VAR decision results in an upgraded card for Jarell Quansah of England.
52
Update Update
Jorge Sánchez commits a foul for Mexico.
52
Update Update
Anthony Gordon wins a free kick for England on the left wing.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Nico O'Reilly from England takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
48
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Julián Quiñones from Mexico has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked. Érik Lira provided the assist.
47
Update Update
Érik Lira from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Harry Kane (England).
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Edson Álvarez comes on for César Montes.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Mexico 1, England 2.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez from Mexico misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Jordan Pickford.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Raúl Jiménez's header from the center of the box is saved.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Jude Bellingham concedes.
45
Update Update
Jorge Sánchez commits a foul for Mexico.
45
Update Update
Anthony Gordon wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
42
Update Update
Jesús Gallardo wins a free kick for Mexico on the left wing.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Bukayo Saka (England).
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Julián Quiñones scores for Mexico with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the high center of the goal after a set piece. The score is now Mexico 1, England 2.
40
Update Update
Bukayo Saka of England commits a handball.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jude Bellingham scores for England with a right-footed shot from very close range. The score is now Mexico 0, England 2.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! England takes the lead 1-0 against Mexico. Jude Bellingham scores with a header from close range into the bottom left corner, assisted by Bukayo Saka's cross.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Gilberto Mora of Mexico.
33
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
32
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Luis Romo from Mexico, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
27
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez commits a foul for Mexico.
27
Update Update
Ezri Konsa wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
26
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Gordon's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after Érik Lira concedes.
19
Update Update
César Montes commits a foul for Mexico.
19
Update Update
Jude Bellingham from England is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
19
Attempt Attempt
Gilberto Mora's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Julián Quiñones provided the assist.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Jesús Gallardo of Mexico.
18
Update Update
Bukayo Saka from England is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Jude Bellingham concedes.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Jordan Pickford.
15
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Raúl Jiménez's header from the center of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Jordan Pickford. The chance was assisted by Roberto Alvarado's cross.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to England after Jorge Sánchez concedes.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Gilberto Mora of Mexico.
7
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of England is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
6
Update Update
Érik Lira commits a foul for Mexico.
6
Update Update
Jude Bellingham from England wins a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorge Sánchez (Mexico).
4
Update Update
Anthony Gordon wins a free kick for England in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
3
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Gilberto Mora.
2
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Luis Romo from Mexico.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alireza Faghani.
1
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Declan Rice receives a yellow card.
1
Attempt Attempt
Raul Alonso Jimenez Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Declan Rice of England receives a yellow card for a bad foul.

CONCLUSION

England overcame a red card and lower expected goals to defeat Mexico 3-2 on the road. Mexico dictated territory and chance creation yet could not overcome the visitors' clinical finishing after the interval. The halftime deficit of 1-2 was narrowed but not erased as England added one further goal. Structural changes triggered by the dismissal limited Mexico's ability to press their numerical advantage. The result diverged from underlying metrics while confirming the market's directional signal. Possession dominance of 67 percent yielded insufficient conversion to alter the outcome. England's resilience under reduced numbers proved decisive in securing the three points.

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