Brazil vs Norway Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
New York New Jersey Stadium Sun, 5 Jul - 8:00 PM
World Cup
Brazil BRA
1 Winner 2
Norway NOR
Full Time Sun, 5 Jul 8:00 PM
Round of 16
Neymar  - 90+10' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Erling Haaland - 90', 79'

CONTEXT

Brazil hosted Norway in a match that ended with a 1-2 scoreline after a goalless first half. Norway emerged as winners despite Brazil being the stronger side according to pre-match assessments. Brazil generated an expected goals total of 2.22 while Norway recorded 0.96. Possession favored Norway heavily at 66 percent compared to Brazil's 34 percent. The outcome proved inconsistent with the xG figures as the lower xG side secured the victory. Deviation from expected patterns registered at a minimal 2.1 percent level. No red cards occurred during the contest and the result aligned with market indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation from expected patterns measured a minimal 2.1 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: Outcome proved inconsistent with the xG figures recorded.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Brazil posted 2.22 xG against Norway's 0.96 yet lost.
  • Event impact: Norway scored twice after a 0-0 halftime to win 2-1.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to either side.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Elfath

United States 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

C. Parker

1st Assistant

United States

K. Atkins

2nd Assistant

United States

H. Martinez

4th Official

El Salvador

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 2.26
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.16
Brazil C. Ancelotti
C. Ancelotti
VS
Norway S. Solbakken
S. Solbakken
2.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Japan Rank: W
Scotland Rank: W
Haiti Rank: W
Morocco Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.25 i
Last 6 Opponents
Côte d'Ivoire Rank: W
France Rank: L
Senegal Rank: W
Iraq Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brazil
0.2%
Draw
1.92%
Away Norway
97.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
37.78
31.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brazil
Norway
Power Score
37.78
31.11
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
6
31

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brazil — Opponent-weighted form score
Norway — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brazil Norway

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brazil

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Norway

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brazil ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norway
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.71
18.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.56
49.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brazil +2.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Norway -2.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brazil
Norway
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brazil
vs
Norway
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brazil Norway
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
75%
20%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.68 vs -0.20
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brazil Norway
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
20%
75%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.20 vs -0.68
Brazil
Norway
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brazil
vs
Norway
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brazil Norway
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brazil 0.24
Norway 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brazil Norway
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brazil 0.03
Norway 0.02
Brazil
Norway
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NOR had peak pressure around 87'.
  • NOR started the game with stronger pressure.
BRA Pressure NOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NOR reached the top pressure at 87' (77.08).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brazil BRA Home
0 matches
Norway NOR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:00:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 05, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium :
New York New Jersey Stadium
Capacity :
82500
Attendance :
80663
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ismail Elfath
Corey Parker
Kyle Atkins
Hector Martinez

Statistics

Possession
BRA
38%
NOR
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 3
58 Dangerous attacks 65
34 Possession 66
5 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 92
2 Penalties 0
4 Goal Kicks 8
7 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 4
13 Throwins 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Successful Headers 11
0 Assists 2
17 Dribble Attempts 20
10 Successful Dribbles 11
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55

Attacking

74 Attacks 124
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

41 Long Passes 49
329 Passes 680
279 Successful Passes 617
85 Successful Passes Percentage 91
12 Key Passes 6
19 Successful Long Passes 24
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49

Defensive

3 Saves 4
23 Tackles 14
11 Interceptions 6
43 Duels Won 42

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 12
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

1
Alisson
Alisson Goalkeeper
6.56
3
Gabriel
Gabriel Defender
6.55
4
Marquinhos
Marquinhos (C) Defender
6.35
13
Danilo
Danilo Defender
6.71
16
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
6.83
5
Casemiro
Casemiro Midfielder
7.39
8
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
5.99
2
Éderson
Éderson
Midfielder79'
6.1
22
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli Midfielder
7.01
10
Neymar
Neymar
Attacker67'
6.77
26
Rayan
Rayan Midfielder
7.31
18
Danilo
Danilo
Midfielder67'
6.61
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
7.26
9
Matheus Cunha
Matheus Cunha Attacker
6.97
19
Endrick
Endrick
Attacker58'
6.17
Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

1
Ørjan Nyland
Ørjan Nyland Goalkeeper
7.72
3
Kristoffer Ajer
Kristoffer Ajer Defender
6.65
5
David Møller Wolfe
David Møller Wolfe Defender
6.91
4
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård
Defender90+5'
5.18
17
Torbjørn Heggem
Torbjørn Heggem Defender
7.02
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Defender
6.63
14
Fredrik Aursnes
Fredrik Aursnes
Midfielder63'
6.54
6
Patrick Berg
Patrick Berg Midfielder
7.15
8
Sander Berge
Sander Berge Midfielder
7.38
10
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard (C) Midfielder
7.08
7
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
6.47
22
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb
Midfielder46'
6.39
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
2
8.36
20
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa Attacker
6.4
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup
Attacker46'
7.81

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Neymar 
Penalty / 1st Penalty
90+10'
Event
Neymar 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Leo Østigård → David Møller Wolfe
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Éderson → Bruno Guimarães
7th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Erling Haaland
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Neymar  → Gabriel Martinelli
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Danilo → Rayan
6th Substitution
67'
63'
Event
Fredrik Aursnes → Julian Ryerson
4th Substitution
Event
Endrick → Matheus Cunha
3rd Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Oscar Bobb  → Alexander Sørloth
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Andreas Schjelderup → Antonio Nusa
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Guimarães
Goalkeeper save
14'
Event
Matheus Cunha
Penalty awarded
12'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Éderson Silva's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Neymar provided the assist.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Leo Østigård comes on for David Møller Wolfe.
90
Update Update
Martin Ødegaard from Norway wins a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Neymar commits a foul for Brazil.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Neymar from Brazil receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Neymar from Brazil receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Update Update
Leo Østigård from Norway concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
90
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Brazil as Casemiro is fouled in the penalty area.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Torbjørn Heggem of Norway.
90
Update Update
Casemiro from Brazil wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Neymar scores for Brazil with a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner. The score is now Brazil 1, Norway 2.
88
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Norway leads 2-0 against Brazil as Erling Haaland scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
84
Corner Corner
Norway wins a corner after Douglas Santos concedes.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brazil after Kristoffer Ajer concedes.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brazil after a concession by Oscar Bobb.
82
Update Update
Erling Haaland commits a foul for Norway.
82
Update Update
Marquinhos from Brazil wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Éderson Silva comes on for Bruno Guimarães.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norway takes the lead 1-0 with a header from Erling Haaland in the center of the box.
75
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Andreas Schjelderup's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved.
74
Update Update
Patrick Berg wins a free kick for Norway in the defensive half.
74
Update Update
Bruno Guimarães commits a foul for Brazil.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Danilo Santos comes on for Rayan.
67
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Erling Haaland (Norway) took a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Neymar comes on for Gabriel Martinelli.
67
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
66
Corner Corner
Norway is awarded a corner after Gabriel Magalhães concedes.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Fredrik Aursnes comes on for Julian Ryerson.
63
Update Update
Rayan is caught offside for Brazil.
62
Attempt Attempt
Rayan's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Ørjan Nyland in the center of the goal. Gabriel Magalhães provided the assist with a headed pass.
61
Corner Corner
Brazil wins a corner after Torbjørn Heggem concedes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Endrick's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
59
Attempt Attempt
Endrick from Brazil misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Endrick comes on for Matheus Cunha.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brazil after Kristoffer Ajer concedes.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Patrick Berg from Norway, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
48
Update Update
Oscar Bobb from Norway wins a free kick in the defensive half.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Casemiro of Brazil.
47
Update Update
Rayan from Brazil commits a handball.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Andreas Schjelderup comes on for Antonio Nusa.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Oscar Bobb comes on for Alexander Sørloth.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Brazil 0, Norway 0.
45
Corner Corner
Norway is awarded a corner after Gabriel Martinelli concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Martin Ødegaard's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimarães (Brazil) has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
45
Update Update
Julian Ryerson commits a foul for Norway.
45
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli from Brazil is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli from Brazil is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
43
Corner Corner
Norway wins a corner after Danilo concedes.
43
Attempt Attempt
Martin Ødegaard's left-footed shot from a tough angle on the left is blocked. He was assisted by Erling Haaland.
40
Attempt Attempt
Casemiro's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Rayan provided the assist.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brazil after Ørjan Nyland concedes.
40
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Vinícius Júnior's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Ørjan Nyland. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
38
Update Update
Sander Berge from Norway wins a free kick in the defensive half.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Martinelli (Brazil).
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Erling Haaland's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Alisson Becker in the center of the goal.
35
Attempt Attempt
Vinícius Júnior from Brazil has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Martin Ødegaard (Norway) has a left-footed shot from the right side of the box that is close, but it goes to the right.
31
Update Update
Antonio Nusa from Norway is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
31
Update Update
Danilo commits a foul for Brazil.
31
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Danilo (Brazil) takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
29
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
27
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
23
Update Update
David Møller Wolfe from Norway wins a free kick on the left wing.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Rayan of Brazil.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Rayan from Brazil takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it goes high and wide to the right. Casemiro provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Julian Ryerson commits a foul for Norway.
16
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Brazil is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
14
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Bruno Guimarães from Brazil has his right-footed shot saved.
12
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Brazil.
10
Update Update
Kristoffer Ajer of Norway concedes a penalty for a foul in the penalty area.
10
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Brazil.
6
Update Update
Offside.
3
Update Update
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ismail Elfath.

CONCLUSION

Norway claimed a notable victory over Brazil by a 1-2 margin in a contest defined by second-half breakthroughs. Despite trailing in expected goals Brazil could not convert their statistical edge into a positive result. Norway's superior possession and clinical finishing proved decisive after the interval. The absence of any dismissals kept both teams at full strength throughout. This outcome underscores how actual results can diverge from underlying metrics in football. Brazil will reflect on missed opportunities while Norway gains momentum from the unexpected success. The minimal deviation observed confirms the result stayed within reasonable bounds of variance.

Brazil vs Norway preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.