Portugal vs Croatia Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Toronto Stadium Thu, 2 Jul - 11:00 PM
World Cup
Portugal POR
2 Winner 1
Croatia CRO
Full Time Thu, 2 Jul 11:00 PM
Round of 32
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Portugal secured a 2-1 victory over Croatia after a goalless first half. The match featured Portugal controlling 60 percent of possession while generating 2.23 expected goals against Croatia's 1.29. Croatia entered as the stronger side yet Portugal claimed the win in line with the expected goals outcome. No red cards were issued to either team throughout the contest. The result showed a significant deviation from pre-match indicators with Portugal exceeding typical performance benchmarks. Efficiency metrics remained consistent without notable shifts between the sides. The game concluded with Portugal as the winner despite the underlying team strength assessment favoring Croatia.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portugal produced a significant deviation of 44.1 percent from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expected patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The 2-1 outcome proved consistent with the 2.23 to 1.29 xG distribution.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Portugal's higher xG of 2.23 supported their edge over Croatia's 1.29.
  • Event impact: No second half adjustments occurred as the scoreline developed steadily.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were recorded leaving no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Eskås

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

J. Engan

1st Assistant

Norway

I. Bashevkin

2nd Assistant

Norway

A. Tom

4th Official

South Africa

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.4
Yellow cards / match 2.07
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
Portugal R. Martínez Montoliú
R. Martínez Montoliú
VS
Croatia Z. Dalić
Z. Dalić
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Colombia Rank: D
Uzbekistan Rank: W
Congo DR Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ghana Rank: W
Panama Rank: W
England Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portugal
55.89%
Draw
25.89%
Away Croatia
18.22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Portugal
-39.34%
Draw
+21.31%
Croatia
+18.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.98
22.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portugal
Croatia
Power Score
21.98
22.22
League Position
2
2
Global Rank
5
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portugal — Opponent-weighted form score
Croatia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portugal Croatia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portugal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Croatia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portugal ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Croatia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.14
11.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.29
15.14
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portugal +0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Croatia -0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portugal
Croatia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portugal
vs
Croatia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portugal Croatia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
64%
18%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.43 vs -0.23
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portugal Croatia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
18%
64%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.23 vs -0.43
Portugal
Croatia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portugal
vs
Croatia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portugal Croatia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portugal 0.31
Croatia 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portugal Croatia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portugal 0.00
Croatia 0.00
Portugal
Croatia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • POR had peak pressure around 100'.
  • POR started the game with stronger pressure.
POR Pressure CRO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: POR reached the top pressure at 100' (94.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portugal POR Home
0 matches
Croatia CRO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-03T00:00:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 02, 2026, 11:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium :
Toronto Stadium
Capacity :
45700
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Espen Eskås
Jan Erik Engan
Isaak Bashevkin
Abongile Tom

Statistics

Possession
POR
58%
CRO
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 5
45 Dangerous attacks 36
60 Possession 40
9 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

34 Ball Safe 33
1 Penalties 0
7 Goal Kicks 14
5 Goal Attempts 2
5 Substitutions 4
9 Throwins 14
1 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Successful Headers 3
1 Assists 0
23 Dribble Attempts 7
10 Successful Dribbles 5
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

Attacking

119 Attacks 66
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

40 Long Passes 43
584 Passes 369
532 Successful Passes 311
91 Successful Passes Percentage 84
9 Key Passes 11
20 Successful Long Passes 17
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

5 Saves 2
19 Tackles 23
5 Interceptions 9
53 Duels Won 42

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 22
6 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 4
6 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

1
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
6.58
3
Rúben Dias
Rúben Dias Defender
6.71
13
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
6.3
20
João Cancelo
João Cancelo Defender
7.18
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
Attacker62'
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
7.41
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder
6.33
2
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo
Defender62'
15
João Neves
João Neves Midfielder
6.56
17
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Midfielder
6.64
18
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
6.63
26
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição
Attacker62'
23
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
6.86
10
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva
Midfielder62'
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo (C) Attacker
6.32
21
Rúben Neves
Rúben Neves
Midfielder81'
Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
6.75
3
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
6.78
6
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.9
14
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić Defender
6.69
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic Midfielder
6.67
9
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric
Attacker90+6'
10
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić (C) Midfielder
6.41
13
Nikola Vlašić
Nikola Vlašić Midfielder
6.85
4
Josko Gvardiol
Josko Gvardiol
Defender90+2'
16
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
6.58
15
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder68'
17
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
6.47
11
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
6.87
20
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+16'
Event
Josko Gvardiol 
Goal disallowed
90+8'
Event
Ivan Perišić
Off the ball foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Andrej Kramaric → Mateo Kovacic 
9th Substitution
Event
Gonçalo Ramos
Header / 2nd Goal
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Josko Gvardiol  → Nikola Vlašić
8th Substitution
Event
Rúben Neves → Cristiano Ronaldo
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Cristiano Ronaldo
Penalty / 1st Penalty
68'
68'
Event
Mario Pašalić → Martin Baturina
6th Substitution
Event
Renato Veiga
Penalty awarded
67'
Event
Francisco Conceição → Pedro Neto 
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Gonçalo Ramos → João Cancelo
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Nélson Semedo → Bruno Fernandes
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Bernardo Silva → Vitinha
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Cristiano Ronaldo
Goal cancelled
61'
59'
Event
Luka Modrić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Ivan Perišić
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Igor Matanovic → Ante Budimir
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Rúben Dias 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner after Josip Stanisic concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 10 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Gonçalo Ramos from Portugal misses an attempt with a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the right. The chance was assisted by João Neves, who delivered a cross after a corner.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Josko Gvardiol comes on for Nikola Vlasic.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portugal leads 2-1 after Gonçalo Ramos scores with a header from the center of the box.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Andrej Kramaric comes on for Mateo Kovacic.
90
Update Update
Rúben Dias wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Perisic of Croatia.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ivan Perisic of Croatia receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after a concession by Rúben Neves.
90
Update Update
Igor Matanovic's header from the center of the box for Croatia is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Luka Modric's cross.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Francisco Conceição's left-footed shot from the right side of the box goes wide to the left, assisted by Nélson Semedo.
90
Update Update
Goal overturned by VAR: Josko Gvardiol scores for Croatia, but the goal is ruled out following a VAR review.
90
Update Update
VAR is checking the goal scored by Josko Gvardiol for Croatia.
90
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from Croatia misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the right. He was assisted by Ivan Perisic's cross.
90
Update Update
VAR review results in no goal after Portugal leads Croatia 2-1.
90
Update Update
Delay in the match in Portugal.
89
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Mario Pasalic (Croatia) with a header from the center of the box.
87
Corner Corner
Renato Veiga from Portugal misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Nuno Mendes assisted with a cross after a corner.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portugal after a concession by Ivan Perisic.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Rúben Neves comes on for Cristiano Ronaldo.
80
Update Update
Offside called against Croatia. Petar Sucic is caught offside.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after a concession by Diogo Costa.
77
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Diogo Costa (Portugal) saves a right-footed shot from a difficult angle on the right by Igor Matanovic (Croatia) in the bottom right corner.
76
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Igor Matanovic's header from the center of the box for Croatia goes just over the bar. Luka Modric provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
75
Corner Corner
Croatia wins a corner after Diogo Costa concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Kovacic's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Diogo Costa. The attempt was assisted by Igor Matanovic with a headed pass.
75
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Mateo Kovacic's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Diogo Costa. The shot was assisted by Mario Pasalic.
74
Update Update
Nélson Semedo wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Igor Matanovic of Croatia.
72
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Cristiano Ronaldo scores for Portugal with a right-footed shot. The match remains 1-1.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Mario Pasalic comes on for Martin Baturina.
65
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Portugal.
64
Corner Corner
Rafael Leão from Portugal misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from very close range after a corner.
64
Update Update
VAR is checking a penalty for Portugal.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Nélson Semedo comes on for Bruno Fernandes.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Francisco Conceição comes on for Pedro Neto.
63
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner after Dominik Livakovic concedes.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Gonçalo Ramos comes on for João Cancelo.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Bernardo Silva comes on for Vitinha.
61
Update Update
Portugal is called offside as Cristiano Ronaldo is caught in an offside position.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after a concession by Diogo Costa.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luka Modric from Croatia receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Update Update
Vitinha (Portugal) is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
59
Update Update
Luka Modric commits a foul for Croatia.
59
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Petar Sucic's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Diogo Costa. The assist came from Martin Baturina.
58
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leão hits the bar with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Nuno Mendes.
57
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
57
Update Update
Luka Modric commits a foul for Croatia.
56
Update Update
Offside called against Croatia. Nikola Vlasic is caught offside.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Croatia takes the lead 1-0 with Ivan Perisic scoring from the left side of the box with a left-footed shot.
52
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
52
Update Update
Vitinha commits a foul for Portugal.
51
Update Update
Vitinha from Portugal is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
51
Update Update
Igor Matanovic commits a foul for Croatia.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Nikola Vlasic (Croatia) took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after a concession by Diogo Costa.
48
Corner Corner
Mateo Kovacic's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Diogo Costa. The attempt was assisted by Igor Matanovic.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Igor Matanovic comes on for Ante Budimir.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Portugal and Croatia.
45
Update Update
Nuno Mendes wins a free kick for Portugal on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Sucic of Croatia.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leão from Portugal misses the target with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it too high.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Rúben Dias wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Ante Budimir commits a foul for Croatia.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Rúben Dias of Portugal.
45
Update Update
Ante Budimir wins a free kick for Croatia on the left wing.
45
Update Update
João Neves commits a foul for Portugal.
45
Update Update
Josip Sutalo wins a free kick for Croatia on the right wing.
40
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner after Josip Sutalo concedes.
39
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner after Josip Stanisic concedes.
37
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Mendes' right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. João Cancelo provided the assist.
37
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portugal after Ivan Perisic concedes.
34
Update Update
Vitinha from Portugal wins a free kick on the left wing.
34
Update Update
Nikola Vlasic commits a foul for Croatia.
33
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) heads the ball from very close range.
29
Update Update
Nikola Vlasic is caught offside for Croatia.
28
Attempt Attempt
Martin Baturina's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Nikola Vlasic with a headed pass.
27
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
24
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
24
Corner Corner
João Neves from Portugal misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it too high. Nuno Mendes provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portugal after Marin Pongracic concedes.
18
Update Update
Renato Veiga commits a foul for Portugal.
18
Update Update
Petar Sucic from Croatia is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
17
Update Update
Rúben Dias commits a foul for Portugal.
17
Update Update
Ante Budimir wins a free kick for Croatia in the attacking half.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rúben Dias from Portugal receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
16
Corner Corner
Renato Veiga from Portugal misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it too high. He was assisted by Nuno Mendes, who delivered a cross after a corner.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portugal after a concession by Marin Pongracic.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by João Cancelo of Portugal.
14
Update Update
Ivan Perisic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
13
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Cristiano Ronaldo's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
11
Update Update
Nuno Mendes wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Mateo Kovacic from Croatia.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ante Budimir (Croatia) header from the centre of the box.
7
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner after Dominik Livakovic concedes.
7
Corner Corner
João Cancelo (Portugal) misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high after a corner.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Attempt Attempt
Joao Cancelo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Fernandes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Fernandes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Machado Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Espen Eskas.

CONCLUSION

The 2-1 scoreline reflected Portugal's ability to convert their possession advantage and xG superiority into the decisive result. Croatia's status as the stronger side did not translate into the expected outcome on this occasion. With the halftime score locked at 0-0 both teams adjusted approaches in the second period leading to Portugal's breakthrough. The absence of red cards ensured the contest remained balanced in terms of player numbers throughout. Overall the data points to a performance that exceeded structural expectations for the winners while staying aligned on efficiency and xG measures. This victory highlights Portugal's capacity to deliver results beyond baseline assessments in this fixture.

Portugal vs Croatia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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