Brazil vs Japan Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Houston Stadium Mon, 29 Jun - 5:00 PM
World Cup
Brazil BRA
2 Winner 1
Japan JPN
Full Time Mon, 29 Jun 5:00 PM
Round of 32
Casimiro - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Kaishu Sano - 29'

CONTEXT

Brazil secured a 2-1 victory over Japan after trailing 0-1 at halftime. The home side controlled 69 percent of possession and generated an expected goals total of 1.92 against Japan's meager 0.26. Despite falling behind early, Brazil's persistent attacking play led to a comeback in the second half. The significant deviation of 46.3 percent for the stronger team highlighted an unexpected performance level that ultimately proved decisive. With no red cards affecting the flow, the match remained a test of tactical adjustments and efficiency. Japan defended stoutly in the first period but could not sustain their advantage due to limited opportunities. This result demonstrated Brazil's capacity to adapt and dominate proceedings after the interval, turning the game in their favor through superior chance creation.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brazil exhibited a significant structural deviation of 46.3 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the expected performance levels.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment showed Brazil's 1.92 expected goals far exceeding Japan's 0.26.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed the true outcome consistent with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were met as the stronger team Brazil secured the 2-1 victory.
  • Event impact: Event impact from the halftime deficit was overcome by Brazil's second-half dominance.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent as no red cards were issued in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Mariani

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

D. Bindoni

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Tegoni

2nd Assistant

Italy

S. Schärer

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.04
Yellow cards / match 2.03
Red cards / match 0.11
Penalties / match 0.12
Brazil C. Ancelotti
C. Ancelotti
VS
Japan H. Moriyasu
H. Moriyasu
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Scotland Rank: W
Haiti Rank: W
Morocco Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sweden Rank: D
Tunisia Rank: W
Netherlands Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brazil
53.67%
Draw
27.3%
Away Japan
19.03%

Movement

Changes since opening
Brazil
-42.4%
Draw
+23.57%
Japan
+18.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.62
19.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brazil
Japan
Power Score
30.62
19.75
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
6
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brazil — Opponent-weighted form score
Japan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brazil Japan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brazil

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Japan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brazil ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Japan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.91
20.97
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.97
33.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brazil +1.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Japan -1.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brazil
Japan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brazil
vs
Japan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brazil Japan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
3%
55%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.06 vs -0.15
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brazil Japan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
55%
3%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.15 vs -0.06
Brazil
Japan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brazil
vs
Japan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brazil Japan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brazil 0.22
Japan 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brazil Japan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brazil 0.03
Japan 0.02
Brazil
Japan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRA had peak pressure around 60'.
  • BRA started the game with stronger pressure.
BRA Pressure JPN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRA reached the top pressure at 60' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brazil BRA Home
1 matches
Japan JPN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-06-30T00:00:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
1 Z. Suzuki
H. Ito
Japan
21 H. Ito
S. Taniguchi
Japan
3 S. Taniguchi
T. Tomiyasu
Japan
22 T. Tomiyasu
K. Nakamura
Substitution
Japan
13 K. Nakamura
D. Kamada
Substitution
Japan
15 D. Kamada
K. Sano
Japan
24 K. Sano
R. Doan
Substitution
Japan
10 (C) R. Doan
D. Maeda
Substitution
Japan
11 D. Maeda
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
14 J. Ito
A. Ueda
Japan
18 A. Ueda

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 29, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium :
Houston Stadium
Capacity :
72220
Attendance :
68777
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Maurizio Mariani
Daniele Bindoni
Alberto Tegoni
Sandro Schärer

Statistics

Possession
BRA
65%
JPN
35%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 1
88 Dangerous attacks 30
69 Possession 31
6 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 5
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

65 Ball Safe 69
4 Goal Kicks 10
12 Goal Attempts 3
4 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Successful Headers 13
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0
10 Dribble Attempts 6
5 Successful Dribbles 3
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

133 Attacks 65
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

45 Long Passes 45
682 Passes 315
625 Successful Passes 261
92 Successful Passes Percentage 83
17 Key Passes 3
21 Successful Long Passes 24
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

1 Saves 4
12 Tackles 10
9 Interceptions 4
39 Duels Won 32

Build-up

40 Total Crosses 10
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
4 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

1
Alisson
Alisson Goalkeeper
6.36
3
Gabriel
Gabriel Defender
7.88
4
Marquinhos
Marquinhos (C) Defender
7.31
13
Danilo
Danilo Defender
6.18
16
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos Defender
7.18
5
Casimiro
Casimiro Midfielder
7.79
17
Fabinho
Fabinho
Midfielder90+3'
6.65
8
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.97
18
Danilo
Danilo
Midfielder90+8'
20
Lucas Paquetá
Lucas Paquetá Midfielder
6.9
19
Endrick
Endrick
Attacker46'
6.5
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
7.05
9
Matheus Cunha
Matheus Cunha Attacker
6.87
22
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli
Attacker66'
7.38
26
Rayan
Rayan Attacker
7.45
Referee : Maurizio Mariani

Starting XI ▼

1
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
7.45
3
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
6.81
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
6.16
22
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Takehiro Tomiyasu Defender
6.96
10
Ritsu Doan
Ritsu Doan (C) Midfielder
6.41
2
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara
Defender66'
6.5
13
Keito Nakamura
Keito Nakamura Midfielder
6.56
25
Junnosuke Suzuki
Junnosuke Suzuki
Defender66'
6.28
15
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Midfielder
6.52
7
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka
Midfielder78'
5.58
24
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
7.26
11
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
6.69
19
Koki Ogawa
Koki Ogawa
Attacker90+7'
14
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Attacker
6.59
6
Shuto Machino
Shuto Machino
Attacker78'
6.51
18
Ayase Ueda
Ayase Ueda Attacker
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Danilo → Bruno Guimarães
9th Substitution
90+8'
90+7'
Event
Koki Ogawa → Daizen Maeda
8th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Martinelli
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+5'
Event
Fabinho → Casimiro
7th Substitution
90+3'
84'
Event
Junnosuke Suzuki
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Shuto Machino → Junya Ito
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Ao Tanaka → Daichi Kamada
6th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Martinelli → Matheus Cunha
2nd Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Yukinari Sugawara → Ritsu Doan
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Junnosuke Suzuki → Keito Nakamura
4th Substitution
Event
Casimiro
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
Event
Danilo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
48'
Event
Endrick → Lucas Paquetá
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Daichi Kamada
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Kaishu Sano
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Casimiro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
12'
Event
Kaishu Sano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Vinícius Júnior's right-footed shot from outside the box for Brazil is blocked. Gabriel Martinelli provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Brazil is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ao Tanaka of Japan.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Casemiro from Brazil.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Fabinho comes on for Casemiro due to an injury.
90
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
90
Corner Corner
Fabinho from Brazil misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The chance was created by a cross from Bruno Guimarães after a corner.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brazil leads Japan 2-1. Gabriel Martinelli scores for Brazil with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Koki Ogawa comes on for Daizen Maeda.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Danilo Santos comes on for Bruno Guimarães.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Shogo Taniguchi of Japan.
90
Update Update
Endrick from Brazil wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Marquinhos from Brazil is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Shuto Machino of Japan.
89
Corner Corner
Brazil wins a corner after Kaishu Sano concedes.
89
Update Update
Gabriel Magalhães from Brazil had a header attempt from the center of the box, but it was blocked. Rayan provided the assist with a cross.
88
Update Update
Rayan from Brazil wins a free kick on the right wing.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Junnosuke Suzuki of Japan.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brazil after a concession by Junnosuke Suzuki.
84
Update Update
Danilo from Brazil wins a free kick on the right wing.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Junnosuke Suzuki of Japan.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Junnosuke Suzuki from Japan receives a yellow card for a foul.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Ao Tanaka comes on for Daichi Kamada.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Shuto Machino comes on for Junya Ito.
77
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Gabriel Martinelli from Brazil, who took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Brazil after Junnosuke Suzuki concedes.
74
Update Update
Rayan's header from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked. Gabriel Magalhães provided the assist with a cross.
72
Update Update
Junya Ito wins a free kick for Japan in the defensive half.
72
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli commits a foul for Brazil.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
68
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Yukinari Sugawara comes on for Ritsu Doan.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Junnosuke Suzuki comes on for Keito Nakamura.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Gabriel Martinelli comes on for Matheus Cunha.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ayase Ueda's right-footed shot from the left side of the box for Japan is saved.
60
Update Update
Ayase Ueda from Japan commits a handball.
58
Update Update
Goal! The score is now Brazil 1, Japan 1. Casemiro scores for Brazil with a header from the right side of the six-yard box.
58
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Vinícius Júnior's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Zion Suzuki. The shot was assisted by Rayan.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Casemiro's header from close range for Brazil is blocked.
54
Update Update
VAR decision: the previous decision has been cancelled.
53
Attempt Attempt
Endrick from Brazil misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right. Vinícius Júnior provided the assist with a cross.
52
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Bruno Guimarães' header from the center of the box is saved.
49
Update Update
Matheus Cunha commits a foul for Brazil.
49
Update Update
Takehiro Tomiyasu wins a free kick for Japan in the defensive half.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danilo from Brazil receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
48
Update Update
Danilo commits a foul for Brazil.
48
Update Update
Daizen Maeda of Japan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Ritsu Doan from Japan commits a handball.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brazil: Endrick comes on for Lucas Paquetá.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with Brazil trailing Japan 1-0.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daichi Kamada from Japan receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
Bruno Guimarães from Brazil is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Daichi Kamada commits a foul for Japan.
45
Attempt Attempt
Junya Ito's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Daichi Kamada.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lucas Paquetá heads the ball from the center of the box for Brazil.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
38
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Matheus Cunha's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Lucas Paquetá's left-footed shot from outside the box for Brazil is blocked. Vinícius Júnior provided the assist.
34
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Vinícius Júnior's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Marquinhos (Brazil) heads the ball from the center of the box but it goes to the right. The chance was set up by Lucas Paquetá with a cross from a set piece situation.
32
Update Update
Douglas Santos from Brazil wins a free kick on the left wing.
32
Update Update
Ritsu Doan commits a foul for Japan.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Japan takes the lead 1-0 against Brazil as Kaishu Sano scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a fast break.
28
Corner Corner
Ayase Ueda from Japan misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. The chance was set up by Junya Ito's cross following a corner.
27
Corner Corner
Japan wins a corner after Gabriel Magalhães concedes.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
18
Update Update
Ayase Ueda of Japan commits a handball.
16
Corner Corner
Japan is awarded a corner after Casemiro concedes.
16
Attempt Attempt
Daichi Kamada's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
14
Corner Corner
Brazil wins a corner after Zion Suzuki concedes.
14
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Matheus Cunha's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Casemiro from Brazil receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
14
Update Update
Casemiro commits a foul for Brazil.
14
Update Update
Junya Ito wins a free kick for Japan in the attacking half.
14
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Bruno Guimarães (Brazil) had a right-footed shot from the left side of the box after a corner.
12
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Brazil is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaishu Sano of Japan.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kaishu Sano from Japan receives a yellow card for a foul.
10
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimarães' left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
7
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Brazil wins a free kick in the attacking half.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaishu Sano of Japan.
2
Corner Corner
Brazil wins a corner after Shogo Taniguchi concedes.
2
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimarães' left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Rayan provided the assist.
1
Update Update
First half begins.
1
Update Update
Lucas Paquetá wins a free kick for Brazil in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Takehiro Tomiyasu commits a foul for Japan.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Brazil 2-1 Japan. Structural assessment: Brazil exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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