Panama vs Croatia Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Toronto Stadium Tue, 23 Jun - 11:00 PM
World Cup
Panama PAN
0 Winner 1
Croatia CRO
Full Time Tue, 23 Jun 11:00 PM
Round 2 Group Stage
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Panama hosted Croatia in a match that concluded with a 0-1 scoreline after a goalless first half. Despite being labeled the stronger side beforehand, Panama managed only 0.47 expected goals while Croatia posted 1.02. Possession favored Croatia at 58 percent against Panama's 42 percent. The second half saw Croatia break the deadlock to secure the narrow victory. No red cards were issued to either side throughout the contest. The result aligned with the underlying expected goals metrics despite the pre-match designation of Panama as the stronger team. Croatia's performance demonstrated clear efficiency in converting their opportunities into the match-winning goal.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Croatia showed a significant 33.2 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expected patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome proved consistent with the xG figures of 0.47 to 1.02.
  • Market alignment: The result maintained full alignment with market projections.
  • xG expectations: Croatia exceeded xG expectations while Panama fell short in the 0-1 defeat.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal served as the decisive event in Croatia's victory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match proceeded without any such distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Atcho

Gabon 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

B. Ditsoga

1st Assistant

Gabon

A. Ndong

2nd Assistant

K. Saleh

4th Official

Saudi Arabia

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.12
Yellow cards / match 1.38
Red cards / match 0.1
Penalties / match 0.09
Panama T. Christiansen Tarín
T. Christiansen Tarín
VS
Croatia Z. Dalić
Z. Dalić
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ghana Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
England Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Panama
12.55%
Draw
20.69%
Away Croatia
66.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Panama
+12.36%
Draw
+16.49%
Croatia
-28.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.33
29.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Panama
Croatia
Power Score
33.33
29.63
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
33
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Panama — Opponent-weighted form score
Croatia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Panama Croatia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Panama

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Croatia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Panama ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Croatia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
5.97
5.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
5.55
5.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Panama +0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Croatia -0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Panama
Croatia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Panama
vs
Croatia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Panama Croatia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
44%
4%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.21 vs -0.04
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Panama Croatia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
4%
44%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.04 vs -0.21
Panama
Croatia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Panama
vs
Croatia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Panama Croatia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Panama 0.04
Croatia 0.06
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Panama Croatia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Panama 0.00
Croatia 0.00
Panama
Croatia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAN had peak pressure around 97'.
  • CRO started the game with stronger pressure.
PAN Pressure CRO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAN reached the top pressure at 97' (81.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Panama PAN Home
0 matches
Croatia CRO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-24T00:00:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
O. Mosquera
Panama
22 O. Mosquera
M. Murillo Bermudez
Panama
23 M. Murillo Bermudez
J. Ramos Díaz
Substitution
Panama
13 J. Ramos Díaz
J. Cordoba Chambers
Panama
3 J. Cordoba Chambers
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
C. Blackman
Substitution
Panama
2 C. Blackman
C. Martinez
Panama
6 C. Martinez
C. Harvey Cesneros
Panama
14 C. Harvey Cesneros
E. Bárcenas Herrera
Substitution
Panama
11 (C) E. Bárcenas Herrera
J. Rodríguez Francis
Panama
7 J. Rodríguez Francis
J. Fajardo Nelson
Substitution
Panama
17 J. Fajardo Nelson

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 23, 2026, 11:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 2 · Group Stage
Stadium :
Toronto Stadium
Capacity :
45700
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pierre Ghislain Atcho
Boris Ditsoga
A. Ndong
Khalid Saleh

Statistics

Possession
PAN
44%
CRO
56%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 3
59 Dangerous attacks 43
42 Possession 58
2 Corners 1
7 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

40 Ball Safe 59
6 Goal Kicks 8
1 Goal Attempts 2
0 Substitutions 4
14 Throwins 14
1 Hit Woodwork 0
12 Successful Headers 5
0 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
17 Dribble Attempts 10
9 Successful Dribbles 10
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 100

Attacking

61 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

57 Long Passes 51
358 Passes 514
278 Successful Passes 432
78 Successful Passes Percentage 84
1 Key Passes 4
24 Successful Long Passes 17
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

1 Saves 1
10 Tackles 18
3 Interceptions 5
54 Duels Won 60

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
19 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Pierre Ghislain Atcho

Starting XI ▼

22
Orlando Mosquera
Orlando Mosquera Goalkeeper
6.65
2
César Blackman
César Blackman Defender
6.54
15
Éric Davis
Éric Davis
Defender90'
3
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Defender
6.49
13
Jiovany Ramos
Jiovany Ramos Defender
6.58
18
Cecilio Waterman
Cecilio Waterman
Attacker77'
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Defender
6.8
23
Amir Murillo
Amir Murillo Defender
6.45
6
Cristian Martínez
Cristian Martínez Midfielder
6.55
7
José Luis Rodríguez
José Luis Rodríguez Midfielder
6.39
11
Yoel Bárcenas
Yoel Bárcenas (C) Midfielder
6.84
9
Tomás Rodríguez
Tomás Rodríguez
Attacker90'
14
Carlos Harvey
Carlos Harvey Midfielder
6.17
17
José Fajardo
José Fajardo Attacker
6.76
24
Azarias Londoño
Azarias Londoño
Attacker83'
Referee : Pierre Ghislain Atcho

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.66
2
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
6.47
3
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
6.56
4
Josko Gvardiol
Josko Gvardiol Defender
6.59
9
Andrej Kramaric
Andrej Kramaric
Attacker46'
6
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.81
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic Midfielder
6.45
17
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić
Midfielder72'
10
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić (C) Midfielder
6.92
15
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder81'
14
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić Midfielder
6.82
16
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
6.98
24
Marco Pašalić
Marco Pašalić Midfielder
6.95
21
Luka Sucic
Luka Sucic
Midfielder72'
26
Petar Musa
Petar Musa Attacker
6.54
11
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Petar Sučić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Éric Davis → César Blackman
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Tomás Rodríguez → Yoel Bárcenas
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Azarias Londoño → José Fajardo
7th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Mario Pašalić → Luka Modrić
6th Substitution
Event
Cecilio Waterman → Jiovany Ramos
5th Substitution
77'
72'
Event
Petar Sučić → Mateo Kovacic 
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Luka Sucic → Marco Pašalić
4th Substitution
Event
Yoel Bárcenas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
54'
Event
Ante Budimir
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Ante Budimir → Petar Musa
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Andrej Kramaric → Josko Gvardiol 
2nd Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Yoel Bárcenas from Panama is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Corner Corner
Panama is awarded a corner after Marin Pongracic concedes.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Panama: Tomás Rodríguez comes on for Yoel Bárcenas.
90
Update Update
Cristian Martínez wins a free kick for Panama in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Panama: Éric Davis comes on for César Blackman.
90
Update Update
Ante Budimir commits a foul for Croatia.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Petar Sucic from Croatia receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Sucic of Croatia.
90
Update Update
Tomás Rodríguez from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
Tomás Rodríguez from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Amir Murillo from Panama misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right from a direct free kick.
90
Update Update
Ante Budimir wins a free kick for Croatia in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
Andrés Andrade from Panama commits a foul.
89
Update Update
Josip Stanisic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Update Update
Cecilio Waterman from Panama commits a foul.
89
Update Update
César Blackman from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
89
Update Update
Ante Budimir commits a foul for Croatia.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Mario Pasalic of Croatia.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Panama: Azarías Londoño comes on for José Fajardo.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Marin Pongracic of Croatia.
83
Update Update
Cecilio Waterman from Panama is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
82
Corner Corner
Croatia wins a corner after Carlos Harvey concedes.
82
Attempt Attempt
Luka Sucic's left-footed shot from outside the box for Croatia is blocked.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Mario Pasalic comes on for Luka Modric.
80
Corner Corner
Carlos Harvey from Panama misses a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, just to the right of the goal. He was assisted by José Luis Rodríguez, who provided a cross after a corner.
80
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
80
Update Update
José Fajardo commits a foul for Panama.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Panama after a concession by Josip Sutalo.
78
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. José Luis Rodríguez from Panama takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's too high. He was assisted by Cecilio Waterman.
77
Update Update
Cristian Martínez commits a foul for Panama.
74
Update Update
Ivan Perisic from Croatia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Petar Sucic of Croatia.
73
Update Update
Carlos Harvey from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Luka Sucic comes on for Marco Pasalic.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Petar Sucic comes on for Mateo Kovacic.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
68
Corner Corner
Panama is awarded a corner after Dominik Livakovic concedes.
68
Corner Corner
Panama wins a corner after Dominik Livakovic concedes.
68
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Carlos Harvey's header from the center of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Dominik Livakovic. The chance was assisted by Cristian Martínez with a cross.
68
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Amir Murillo from Panama has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the bottom right corner by Dominik Livakovic of Croatia.
65
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by José Córdoba of Panama.
64
Update Update
Offside against Croatia. Marco Pasalic is caught offside.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Panama after a concession by Josip Stanisic.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Yoel Bárcenas of Panama.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yoel Bárcenas from Panama receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
61
Update Update
Luka Modric wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
José Fajardo from Panama misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. The cross was assisted by Amir Murillo.
60
Update Update
Marco Pasalic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by José Córdoba of Panama.
58
Update Update
Marco Pasalic from Croatia is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
58
Update Update
César Blackman commits a foul for Panama.
57
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Marco Pasalic (Croatia) had a left-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box after a fast break.
57
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Marco Pasalic's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
56
Corner Corner
Panama is awarded a corner after Marin Pongracic concedes.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Josip Sutalo of Croatia.
56
Update Update
José Fajardo from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Croatia takes the lead 1-0 with Ante Budimir scoring from very close range with a left-footed shot.
53
Update Update
Ante Budimir from Croatia wins a free kick on the left wing.
53
Update Update
José Córdoba commits a foul for Panama.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Panama after Marco Pasalic concedes.
50
Update Update
Andrej Kramaric is caught offside for Croatia.
49
Update Update
Josip Stanisic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by José Luis Rodríguez of Panama.
47
Update Update
José Fajardo from Panama commits a foul.
47
Update Update
Luka Modric wins a free kick for Croatia in the attacking half.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Ante Budimir comes on for Petar Musa.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Panama and Croatia.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Andrej Kramaric comes on for Josko Gvardiol.
45
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Cristian Martínez commits a foul for Panama.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Martin Baturina's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Orlando Mosquera. The assist comes from Ivan Perisic.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after Orlando Mosquera concedes.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Josip Sutalo of Croatia.
44
Update Update
José Fajardo from Panama is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
40
Update Update
Josko Gvardiol of Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
40
Update Update
Amir Murillo commits a foul for Panama.
38
Update Update
Josip Sutalo wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by José Luis Rodríguez of Panama.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by José Córdoba of Panama.
36
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
34
Update Update
Cristian Martínez of Panama commits a handball.
29
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
29
Update Update
Yoel Bárcenas of Panama commits a foul.
28
Update Update
Josko Gvardiol of Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
28
Update Update
Cristian Martínez commits a foul for Panama.
26
Update Update
Delay is over. The teams are ready to continue.
23
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. José Luis Rodríguez's header from the center of the box is saved in the top right corner, assisted by Amir Murillo.
22
Update Update
Josko Gvardiol commits a foul for Croatia.
22
Update Update
Cristian Martínez from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Luka Modric (Croatia).
13
Update Update
José Luis Rodríguez of Panama wins a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic commits a foul for Croatia.
8
Update Update
Carlos Harvey from Panama wins a free kick in the attacking half.
6
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
6
Update Update
Carlos Harvey from Panama commits a foul.
5
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Jiovany Ramos of Panama.
4
Attempt Attempt
Amir Murillo from Panama has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Michael Murillo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Update Update
Cristian Martínez wins a free kick for Panama in the attacking half.
2
Attempt Attempt
Luka Modric attempted a header but missed the shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Pierre Ghislain Atcho.

CONCLUSION

Croatia claimed a deserved 0-1 win over Panama through disciplined execution and superior chance creation. The visitors controlled proceedings after the interval and capitalized on their opportunities to leave with all three points. Panama struggled to generate meaningful threats despite their favored status entering the fixture. The absence of dismissals allowed both teams to maintain full complements for the duration. Expected goals data accurately reflected the flow and final margin. Croatia's approach yielded tangible rewards while Panama's efforts produced limited returns. This outcome highlighted the importance of clinical finishing in tight encounters between competitive sides.

Panama vs Croatia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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