Almería vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sat, 20 Jun - 7:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
1 Winner 2
Málaga MLA
Full Time Sat, 20 Jun 7:30 PM
Final Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 2
Léo Baptistão - 76'
Goal
|
Goal
David Larrubia - 71'
Chupe - 65'
Thalys 90+4' Red Card
|
Second yellow card Aarón Ochoa 90+9'

CONTEXT

Almería faced Málaga in the second leg of their two-legged tie with the aggregate score entering the match at 1-2. The game concluded with a 1-2 result in favor of the visitors after a goalless first half. Both sides finished with ten players following one red card each. Málaga controlled 51 percent of possession compared to Almería's 49 percent. The stronger side Málaga secured the victory in line with pre-match expectations. Significant structural deviation was recorded for the away team. Efficiency remained in line with overall patterns and the outcome aligned with market indicators despite the absence of xG metrics. Red card events shaped the second half adjustments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Málaga recorded a significant 100 percent deviation in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with established patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded to determine outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved consistent with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG values were available to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: The 1-2 scoreline reflected the away side's second half response.
  • Red card distortion: One red card per team created second half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Muñiz Muñoz

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

F. Estela Bravo

1st Assistant

Spain

S. Sanz Torcal

2nd Assistant

Spain

D. Arcediano Monescillo

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.8
Yellow cards / match 5.08
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.31
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.74
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: 72 D
Castellón Rank: 69 W
Castellón Rank: 69 D
Real Valladolid Rank: 60 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 66 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 70 D
Las Palmas Rank: 70 D
Las Palmas Rank: 71 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 W
Racing Santander Rank: 73 D
Ceuta Rank: 63 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
0%
Draw
0%
Away Málaga
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.54
72.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Málaga
Power Score
69.54
72.17
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
214
160

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.06
26.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.57
33.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +0.65 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga -0.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Almería
vs
Málaga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Almería Málaga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería 0.20
Málaga 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería Málaga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Almería 0.06
Málaga 0.02
Almería
Málaga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLA had peak pressure around 43'.
  • MLA started the game with stronger pressure.
ALM Pressure MLA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLA reached the top pressure at 43' (86.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
5 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
7
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-21T00:00:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
D. Chirino
Substitution
Curaçao
22 D. Chirino
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Substitution
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
Substitution
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
A. Embarba Blázquez
Spain
23 (C) A. Embarba Blázquez
S. Arribas Calvo
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
N. Melamed Ribaudo
Substitution
Spain
10 N. Melamed Ribaudo
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 (C) A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Murillo Dominguez
Substitution
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
I. Merino Rodríguez
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
C. Dotor Gonzalez
Spain
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
J. Muñoz Benavides
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
Substitution
Spain
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
D. Larrubia Romano
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Ruiz Rubio
Substitution
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 20, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Final · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 2
Stadium :
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity :
17400
Attendance :
17825
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Fernando Estela Bravo
Samuel Sanz Torcal
Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Statistics

Possession
ALM
49%
MLA
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
10 Shots 5
64 Dangerous attacks 31
49 Possession 51
7 Corners 7
5 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

57 Ball Safe 71
2 Goal Kicks 7
11 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 4
21 Throwins 22
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 2
23 Dribble Attempts 14
8 Successful Dribbles 5
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36

Attacking

88 Attacks 80
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

39 Long Passes 63
375 Passes 414
310 Successful Passes 329
83 Successful Passes Percentage 79
11 Key Passes 10
14 Successful Long Passes 25
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

3 Saves 5
13 Tackles 21
10 Interceptions 7
38 Duels Won 47

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 8
14 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.52
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.53
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker73'
6.78
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
6.68
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.52
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Defender
5.98
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna
Defender73'
6.67
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed Midfielder
6.82
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão
Attacker59'
7.65
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
6.24
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
7
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder87'
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba (C) Midfielder
7.36
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6.53
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.5
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker73'
4.9
Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero (C) Goalkeeper
7.24
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
7.24
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
7.11
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño
Attacker53'
6.27
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
6.89
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
7.12
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
6.99
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.88
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa
Midfielder79'
5.58
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Midfielder
7.09
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
7.22
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez
Midfielder79'
6.5
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
6.45
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.53
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac
Midfielder87'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Aarón Ochoa
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Thalys
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Aarón Ochoa
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Dion Lopy
9th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Darko Brasanac → Chupe
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Aarón Ochoa → Joaquín Muñoz
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Rafa Rodríguez → Dani Lorenzo
7th Substitution
Event
Léo Baptistão
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
Event
Marcos Luna → Daijiro Chirino
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Álex Muñoz
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
5th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
David Larrubia
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
66'
Event
Chupe
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Chupe
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Léo Baptistão → Nico Melamed
2nd Substitution
59'
53'
Event
Adrián Niño → Diego Murillo
1st Substitution
50'
Event
Carlos Dotor
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dion Lopy
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Morcillo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aaron Ochoa receives a yellow card.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Thalys Gomes De Araujo.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card shown to Aaron Ochoa.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Aaron Ochoa.
90
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonini's header is saved.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Darko Brasanac is replaced by Chupete.
87
Update Update
Arnau Puigmal replaces Dion Lopy.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Ochoa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao with his right foot, but it's blocked.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao with his right foot, but it's saved.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Nino takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
80
Substitution Substitution
Aaron Ochoa is substituted for Joaquin Munoz Benavides.
79
Update Update
Haitam Abaida comes on for Daniel Lorenzo Guerrero.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a left-footed shot and scores.
74
Update Update
Jon Morcillo replaces Alex Munoz.
73
Update Update
On comes Marcos Luna, off goes Daijiro Chirino.
73
Substitution Substitution
Thalys Gomes De Araujo is substituted off for Miguel De la Fuente.
73
Attempt Attempt
Dion Lopy takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! David Larrubia scores, making it 0-2.
71
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia scores with a left-footed shot.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Chupete.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Carlos Ruiz Rubio scores, making it 0-1.
65
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Chupete with his right foot results in a goal.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao comes on for Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
53
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adrian Nino comes on for Diego Murillo.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Dotor receives a yellow card.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dion Lopy receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Javier Montero Rubio takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
David Larrubia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Attempt Attempt
Alex Munoz takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Munoz Benavides takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Daijiro Chirino takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Chupete takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Carlos Muniz Munoz.

CONCLUSION

Málaga advanced following their 2-1 win in the second leg against Almería. The match remained level at halftime before both teams were reduced to ten players. Possession stayed balanced throughout with the visitors edging the share slightly. Málaga's status as the stronger side translated into the match victory and overall progression. The significant deviation observed aligned with the away team's performance. Efficiency metrics stayed consistent with prior benchmarks and the result matched available indicators. Absence of xG figures limited deeper statistical comparison yet the red card events clearly influenced the flow after the interval. The tie concluded with Málaga moving forward on aggregate.

Almería vs Málaga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.