Argentina vs Algeria Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Kansas City Stadium Wed, 17 Jun - 1:00 AM
World Cup
Argentina ARG
3 Winner 0
Algeria ALG
Full Time Wed, 17 Jun 1:00 AM
Round 1 Group Stage
Lionel Messi   - 76', 60', 17'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Argentina 3–0 Algeria. The result saw Argentina take the points. Argentina showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Argentina 0.8 – 0.3 Algeria. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Argentina 3-0 Algeria. Argentina showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Marciniak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

T. Listkiewicz

1st Assistant

Poland

A. Kupsik

2nd Assistant

Poland

C. Kawana-Waugh

4th Official

New Zealand

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 9.81
Yellow cards / match 0.92
Red cards / match 0.06
Penalties / match 0.08
Argentina L. Scaloni
L. Scaloni
VS
Algeria V. Petković
V. Petković
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Argentina
95.39%
Draw
3.67%
Away Algeria
0.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
88.89
31.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Argentina
Algeria
Power Score
88.89
31.48
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
3
28

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Argentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Algeria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Argentina Algeria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Argentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Algeria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Argentina ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Algeria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.33
17.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.79
23.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Argentina +0.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Algeria -0.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Argentina
Algeria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Argentina
vs
Algeria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Argentina Algeria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
9%
30%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.08 vs -0.10
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Argentina Algeria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
30%
9%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.10 vs -0.08
Argentina
Algeria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Argentina
vs
Algeria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Argentina Algeria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Argentina 0.42
Algeria 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Argentina Algeria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Argentina 0.00
Algeria 0.13
Argentina
Algeria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ARG had peak pressure around 66'.
  • ALG started the game with stronger pressure.
ARG Pressure ALG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ARG reached the top pressure at 66' (65.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Argentina ARG Home
0 matches
Algeria ALG Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-18T00:00:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
G. Montiel
Substitution
Argentina
4 G. Montiel
C. Romero
Substitution
Argentina
13 C. Romero
L. Martínez
Argentina
6 L. Martínez
F. Medina
Argentina
25 F. Medina
R. de Paul
Argentina
7 R. de Paul
A. Mac Allister
Argentina
20 A. Mac Allister
E. Fernández
Argentina
24 E. Fernández
T. Almada
Substitution
Argentina
16 T. Almada
L. Messi
Substitution
Argentina
10 (C) L. Messi
L. Martínez
Substitution
Argentina
22 L. Martínez

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 17, 2026, 01:00 AM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium :
Kansas City Stadium
Capacity :
76416
Attendance :
69045
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Szymon Marciniak
Tomasz Listkiewicz
Adam Kupsik
Campbell-Kirk Kawana-Waugh

Statistics

Possession
ARG
48%
ALG
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 7
24 Dangerous attacks 45
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 16

Match Overview

73 Ball Safe 57
6 Goal Kicks 4
9 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
12 Throwins 19
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Successful Headers 5
2 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
9 Dribble Attempts 23
2 Successful Dribbles 8
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35

Attacking

85 Attacks 119

Possession

32 Long Passes 25
561 Passes 609
504 Successful Passes 563
90 Successful Passes Percentage 92
7 Key Passes 6
17 Successful Long Passes 15
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60

Defensive

0 Saves 3
27 Tackles 17
10 Interceptions 8
39 Duels Won 43

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 9
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.74
4
Gonzalo Montiel
Gonzalo Montiel Defender
6.77
26
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina
Defender46'
6.82
6
Lisandro Martínez
Lisandro Martínez Defender
7.16
13
Cristian Romero
Cristian Romero Defender
6.95
19
Nicolás Otamendi
Nicolás Otamendi
Defender80'
6.77
25
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Defender
7
7
Rodrigo De Paul
Rodrigo De Paul Midfielder
7.28
16
Thiago Almada
Thiago Almada Midfielder
6.94
15
Nico González
Nico González
Attacker55'
6.93
20
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
7.12
24
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
7.01
10
Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi (C) Attacker
3
9.67
18
Nico Paz
Nico Paz
Attacker80'
6.63
22
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez Attacker
6.48
9
Julián Álvarez
Julián Álvarez
Attacker55'
6.45
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

23
Luca Zidane
Luca Zidane Goalkeeper
6.33
2
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi (C) Defender
6.97
15
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Rayan Aït-Nouri Defender
6.48
17
Rafik Belghali
Rafik Belghali Defender
6.38
21
Ramy Bensebaini
Ramy Bensebaini Defender
6.66
14
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Midfielder
6.48
8
Houssem Aouar
Houssem Aouar
Midfielder64'
6.41
19
Nabil Bentaleb
Nabil Bentaleb Midfielder
6.64
6
Ramiz Zerrouki
Ramiz Zerrouki
Midfielder82'
6.61
22
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Midfielder
6.2
20
Adil Boulbina
Adil Boulbina
Attacker81'
6.17
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Attacker
6.41
18
Mohamed Amoura
Mohamed Amoura
Attacker64'
6.53
10
Farès Chaïbi
Farès Chaïbi Attacker
7.07
11
Anis Hadj Moussa
Anis Hadj Moussa Attacker
6.48
7
Riyad Mahrez
Riyad Mahrez
Attacker64'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Ramiz Zerrouki → Nabil Bentaleb
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Adil Boulbina → Ibrahim Maza
9th Substitution
Event
Nicolás Otamendi → Cristian Romero 
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Nico Paz  → Lionel Messi  
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Lionel Messi  
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
64'
Event
Mohamed Amoura → Amine Gouiri
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Houssem Aouar → Hicham Boudaoui
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Riyad Mahrez → Anis Hadj Moussa
6th Substitution
Event
Lionel Messi  
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
Event
Julián Álvarez → Lautaro Martínez
2nd Substitution
55'
Event
Nico González → Thiago Almada
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Nahuel Molina → Gonzalo Montiel 
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Lionel Messi  
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
17'
9'
Event
Farès Chaïbi
Goal disallowed

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Houssem Aouar from Algeria wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Riyad Mahrez's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Nico Paz (Argentina).
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister of Argentina.
85
Update Update
Riyad Mahrez from Algeria is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Facundo Medina of Argentina.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Algeria: Adil Boulbina comes on for Ibrahim Maza.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Algeria: Ramiz Zerrouki comes on for Nabil Bentaleb.
83
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Julián Alvarez (Argentina).
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Nico Paz comes on for Lionel Messi.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Nicolás Otamendi comes on for Cristian Romero.
80
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ibrahim Maza from Algeria.
80
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
79
Corner Corner
Goal! Argentina 3, Algeria 0. Lionel Messi scores for Argentina with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Nico González.
78
Update Update
Foul by Farès Chaïbi of Algeria.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Rodrigo De Paul wins a free kick for Argentina in the defensive half.
75
Attempt Attempt
Houssem Aouar from Algeria misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, just to the left. He was assisted by Mohammed Amoura.
75
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
71
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after a concession by Luca Zidane.
69
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lionel Messi's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Luca Zidane. The assist came from Alexis Mac Allister.
66
Update Update
Cristian Romero wins a free kick for Argentina in the attacking half.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Algeria: Riyad Mahrez comes on for Anis Hadj Moussa.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Hicham Boudaoui of Algeria.
64
Update Update
Enzo Fernández wins a free kick for Argentina in the attacking half.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Algeria: Mohammed Amoura comes on for Amine Gouiri.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Algeria: Houssem Aouar comes on for Hicham Boudaoui.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohammed Amoura of Algeria.
63
Corner Corner
Goal! Argentina leads 2-0 after Lionel Messi scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner.
63
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Luca Zidane (Algeria) saves a right-footed shot from outside the box by Alexis Mac Allister (Argentina) in the center of the goal.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ibrahim Maza's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Farès Chaïbi provided the assist.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Argentina after Aïssa Mandi concedes.
59
Update Update
Cristian Romero commits a foul for Argentina.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Julián Alvarez comes on for Lautaro Martínez.
55
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Lautaro Martínez's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Luca Zidane. The assist comes from Lionel Messi with a through ball.
55
Update Update
Amine Gouiri from Algeria is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Nico González comes on for Thiago Almada.
54
Update Update
Cristian Romero commits a foul for Argentina.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Hicham Boudaoui of Algeria.
51
Update Update
Lionel Messi wins a free kick for Argentina in the defensive half.
51
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lionel Messi's left-footed shot from outside the box goes high and wide to the left, assisted by Nahuel Molina.
48
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Argentina: Nahuel Molina comes on for Gonzalo Montiel.
48
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at Argentina 1, Algeria 0.
46
Attempt Attempt
Anis Hadj Moussa's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Rafik Belghali provided the assist.
46
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Alexis Mac Allister's header from the center of the box is too high. He was assisted by Lionel Messi, who delivered a cross after a set piece situation.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister of Argentina.
45
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Algeria is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Farès Chaïbi from Algeria takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes too high. Aïssa Mandi provided the assist.
45
Update Update
Ramy Bensebaini from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Lautaro Martínez (Argentina).
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Farès Chaïbi (Algeria) takes a right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right, but it goes close and misses to the right. He was assisted by Anis Hadj Moussa.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Algeria after Lisandro Martínez concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Rafik Belghali of Algeria.
44
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Almada from Argentina misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Enzo Fernández provided the assist.
43
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Farès Chaïbi's header from the center of the box goes wide to the left. Hicham Boudaoui provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Algeria after Emiliano Martínez concedes.
42
Update Update
Offside called against Argentina. Thiago Almada is caught offside.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Facundo Medina of Argentina.
41
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
39
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lionel Messi (Argentina) takes a left-footed shot from over 35 yards on a direct free kick, but it goes to the left.
37
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister wins a free kick for Argentina in the defensive half.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Rafik Belghali of Algeria.
37
Update Update
Thiago Almada wins a free kick for Argentina in the attacking half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Lionel Messi (Argentina).
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Amine Gouiri of Algeria.
34
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
34
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
31
Corner Corner
Goal! Argentina leads 1-0 against Algeria. Lionel Messi scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the top right corner, assisted by Rodrigo De Paul.
31
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Gonzalo Montiel of Argentina.
25
Update Update
Rayan Aït-Nouri from Algeria wins a free kick on the left wing.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Aïssa Mandi from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal, and the match remains 0-0 between Argentina and Algeria.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Lautaro Martínez (Argentina).
10
Update Update
Offside for Algeria. Farès Chaïbi is caught offside.
10
Update Update
Goal overturned by VAR: Farès Chaïbi scores for Algeria, but the goal is disallowed after a VAR review.
9
Update Update
Offside for Argentina. Lionel Messi is flagged for offside.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Enzo Fernández (Argentina).
8
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez is caught offside for Argentina.
5
Update Update
First half begins.
4
Update Update
Anis Hadj Moussa from Algeria is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
First half ends with Argentina leading Algeria 1-0.
1
Update Update
Second half ends with Argentina winning 3-0 against Algeria.
1
Update Update
Match ends with Argentina winning 3-0 against Algeria.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Argentina 3-0 Algeria. Structural assessment: Argentina exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Argentina vs Algeria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

World Cup, World View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.