France vs Senegal Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
New York New Jersey Stadium Tue, 16 Jun - 7:00 PM
World Cup
France FRA
3 Winner 1
Senegal SEN
Full Time Tue, 16 Jun 7:00 PM
Round 1 Group Stage
Kylian Mbappé - 90+6', 66'
Goal
|
Goal
Ibrahim Mbaye - 90+5'

CONTEXT

France secured a 3-1 victory over Senegal in an encounter that remained goalless at the interval. The home side, expected to dominate, showed patience before breaking through in the second period. With an expected goals tally of 1.2 compared to Senegal's 0.61, the statistical models supported the final margin. France controlled 54 percent of possession while Senegal held 46 percent. The absence of any dismissals ensured both teams maintained their full complements on the pitch. The result proved consistent with underlying performance metrics and pre-game projections for the favored team. Senegal competed well early on but could not sustain pressure against a resilient French defense that limited clear chances. Overall, the match demonstrated France's clinical finishing in key moments after the break.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: France exhibited a significant deviation of 35.8 percent from projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for the stronger side.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was consistent with the expected goals differential of 0.59.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: France posted 1.2 expected goals while Senegal recorded 0.61.
  • Event impact: The match concluded with a 3-1 scoreline after a 0-0 halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Faghani

Iran 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

G. Lakrindis

1st Assistant

Australia

A. Lindsay

2nd Assistant

Australia

S. Schärer

4th Official

Switzerland

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 8.94
Yellow cards / match 0.89
Red cards / match 0.06
Penalties / match 0.04
France D. Deschamps
D. Deschamps
VS
Senegal P. Thiaw
P. Thiaw
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home France
64.18%
Draw
20.92%
Away Senegal
14.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
France
-29.14%
Draw
+14.51%
Senegal
+14.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
81.48
38.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
France
Senegal
Power Score
81.48
38.89
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
1
14

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
France — Opponent-weighted form score
Senegal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) France Senegal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

France

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Senegal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

France ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Senegal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.33
15.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.98
23.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
France +0.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Senegal -0.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
France
Senegal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

France
vs
Senegal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
France Senegal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
France Senegal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
0%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs +0.00
France
Senegal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
France
vs
Senegal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
France Senegal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
France 0.34
Senegal 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
France Senegal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
France 0.04
Senegal 0.09
France
Senegal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FRA had peak pressure around 93'.
  • SEN started the game with stronger pressure.
FRA Pressure SEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FRA reached the top pressure at 93' (72.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

France FRA Home
0 matches
Senegal SEN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-17T00:00:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Mendy
Senegal
16 E. Mendy
E. Diouf
Senegal
25 E. Diouf
M. Niakhaté
Senegal
19 M. Niakhaté
K. Koulibaly
Senegal
3 (C) K. Koulibaly
K. Diatta
Senegal
15 K. Diatta
P. Gueye
Substitution
Senegal
26 P. Gueye
I. Gueye
Substitution
Senegal
5 I. Gueye
S. Mané
Senegal
10 S. Mané
L. Camara
Substitution
Senegal
8 L. Camara
I. Sarr
Substitution
Senegal
18 I. Sarr
N. Jackson
Substitution
Senegal
11 N. Jackson

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 16, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium :
New York New Jersey Stadium
Capacity :
82566
Attendance :
80545
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alireza Faghani
G. Lakrindis
Andrew Lindsay
Sandro Schärer

Statistics

Possession
FRA
53%
SEN
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 4
32 Dangerous attacks 27
54 Possession 46
6 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 6

Match Overview

73 Ball Safe 69
7 Goal Kicks 4
10 Goal Attempts 5
2 Substitutions 5
9 Throwins 21
0 Hit Woodwork 1
12 Successful Headers 8
2 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1
16 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 8
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

Attacking

113 Attacks 99
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

46 Long Passes 48
576 Passes 497
505 Successful Passes 427
88 Successful Passes Percentage 86
9 Key Passes 5
21 Successful Long Passes 25
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

2 Saves 5
18 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 8
43 Duels Won 35

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 9
0 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
5 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Alireza Faghani

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
6.55
4
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Defender
7.46
5
Jules Koundé
Jules Koundé Defender
7.06
17
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
6.42
19
Theo Hernández
Theo Hernández Defender
6.37
7
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Midfielder
6.87
12
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola
Attacker80'
7.19
8
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder
7.18
11
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Midfielder
8.96
14
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.55
20
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Midfielder
6.69
24
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki
Midfielder87'
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé (C) Attacker
2
7.96
Referee : Alireza Faghani

Starting XI ▼

16
Edouard Mendy
Edouard Mendy Goalkeeper
7.15
3
Kalidou Koulibaly
Kalidou Koulibaly (C) Defender
6.31
15
Krépin Diatta
Krépin Diatta Defender
6.95
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Defender
6.52
25
El Hadji Malick Diouf
El Hadji Malick Diouf Defender
6.42
5
Idrissa Gueye
Idrissa Gueye Midfielder
6.79
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss
Midfielder88'
8
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
6.27
21
Habib Diarra
Habib Diarra
Midfielder76'
6.29
10
Sadio Mané
Sadio Mané Midfielder
6.37
18
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr Midfielder
6.47
20
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye
Attacker75'
7.09
26
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
6.6
13
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye
Attacker83'
6.7
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker
6.29
9
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng
Attacker83'
6.41

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Pathé Ciss → Idrissa Gueye
7th Substitution
Event
Rayan Cherki → Désiré Doué
6th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Bamba Dieng → Nicolas Jackson
4th Substitution
83'
Event
Iliman Ndiaye → Pape Gueye
5th Substitution
Event
Bradley Barcola
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
82'
Event
Bradley Barcola → Ousmane Dembélé
3rd Substitution
80'
76'
Event
Habib Diarra → Lamine Camara
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye → Ismaïla Sarr
1st Substitution
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
66'
Event
Kylian Mbappé
Penalty cancelled
60'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Michael Olise from France wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Habib Diarra of Senegal.
90
Update Update
Rayan Cherki wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by El Hadji Malick Diouf of Senegal.
90
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Senegal scores to make it 2-1 against France. Ibrahim Mbaye converts with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box after a quick counterattack.
90
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Kylian Mbappé scores for France with a right-footed shot from outside the box. The match score is now France 3, Senegal 1.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Foul committed by Kylian Mbappé (France).
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Moussa Niakhaté from Senegal is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Kylian Mbappé from France.
90
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
90
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Kylian Mbappé from France.
90
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
88
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of added time.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Senegal after Jules Koundé concedes.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Senegal: Pathé Ciss comes on for Idrissa Gueye.
83
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Kylian Mbappé's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Rayan Cherki comes on for Désiré Doué.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Senegal: Iliman Ndiaye comes on for Pape Gueye.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Senegal: Bamba Dieng comes on for Nicolas Jackson.
79
Attempt Attempt
Goal! France lead 2-0 against Senegal. Bradley Barcola scores for France with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box after a fast break.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Habib Diarra of Senegal.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Kylian Mbappé (France).
77
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson is caught offside for Senegal.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for France: Bradley Barcola comes on for Ousmane Dembélé.
76
Update Update
Kylian Mbappé wins a free kick for France in the attacking half.
75
Update Update
Habib Diarra from Senegal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Senegal: Ibrahim Mbaye comes on for Ismaïla Sarr.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Senegal: Habib Diarra comes on for Lamine Camara.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Senegal: Ibrahim Mbaye comes on for Ismaïla Sarr.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Édouard Mendy concedes.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Senegal after Adrien Rabiot concedes.
68
Update Update
Delay is over and they are ready to continue.
68
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Michael Olise's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
65
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson of Senegal is caught offside.
60
Attempt Attempt
Goal! France leads 1-0 against Senegal. Kylian Mbappé scores for France with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Sadio Mané concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Théo Hernández's right-footed shot from the center of the box for France is blocked.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Krépin Diatta concedes.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kylian Mbappé's attempt is saved. His right-footed shot from the center of the box is stopped by Édouard Mendy in the center of the goal. The assist came from Michael Olise with a through ball.
50
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Michael Olise's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
48
Update Update
Offside for France. Jules Koundé is caught offside.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Édouard Mendy concedes.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Nicolas Jackson (Senegal).
46
Update Update
Lamine Camara commits a foul for Senegal.
46
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Désiré Doué (France) took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano wins a free kick for France in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between France and Senegal.
45
Update Update
Michael Olise of France is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
44
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ismaïla Sarr from Senegal takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
43
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Ismaïla Sarr from Senegal, who took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
42
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
40
Update Update
Pape Gueye commits a handball for Senegal.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Kalidou Koulibaly concedes.
32
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ismaïla Sarr from Senegal.
32
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
31
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Sadio Mané's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ismaïla Sarr from Senegal misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Nicolas Jackson provided the assist.
30
Update Update
Sadio Mané wins a free kick on the left wing for Senegal.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Jules Koundé (France).
26
Update Update
Delay is over and the game is ready to continue.
25
Update Update
Ousmane Dembélé from France wins a free kick in the defensive half.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Lamine Camara of Senegal.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Senegal after a concession by Mike Maignan.
22
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Jackson from Senegal hits the left post with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, assisted by El Hadji Malick Diouf after a fast break.
21
Corner Corner
France wins a corner after Krépin Diatta concedes.
19
Update Update
Dayot Upamecano commits a foul for France.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to France after Sadio Mané concedes.
15
Update Update
Sadio Mané wins a free kick for Senegal in the attacking half.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Michael Olise provided the assist.
7
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye commits a foul for Senegal.
4
Update Update
Nicolas Jackson is caught offside for Senegal.
4
Update Update
Désiré Doué from France wins a free kick in the attacking half.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Rabiot (France).
3
Attempt Attempt
Ismaïla Sarr's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Nicolas Jackson provided the assist.
2
Update Update
Sadio Mané from Senegal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Mike Maignan from France is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.

CONCLUSION

France's 3-1 win over Senegal underscores their dominance in the second half following a balanced opening period. The alignment between expected goals and actual outcome validates the performance levels observed. With no disciplinary issues affecting proceedings, the focus remained on tactical execution and finishing ability. Senegal's efforts were notable but insufficient against France's organized approach. This result reinforces France's position as the superior side in this fixture. The possession edge and chance creation metrics further highlight the controlled nature of the victory. Future matches may see similar patterns if France maintains their efficiency in converting opportunities.

France vs Senegal preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

World Cup, World View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.