Iraq vs Norway Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Boston Stadium Tue, 16 Jun - 10:00 PM
World Cup
Iraq IRQ
1 Winner 4
Norway NOR
Full Time Tue, 16 Jun 10:00 PM
Round 1 Group Stage
Aymen Hussein - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Aymen Hussein - 90+7' (Own Goal)
Erling Haaland - 43', 29'

CONTEXT

Iraq faced Norway in an international fixture that concluded with a 1-4 scoreline. The home side led 1-2 at halftime after an early response to Norway's opener. Norway controlled 61 percent of possession and generated 2.74 expected goals compared to Iraq's 1.44. The visitors added two second-half goals to pull away decisively. Iraq, listed as the stronger side beforehand, could not maintain their initial intensity. Norway's attacking efficiency produced a clear result despite the pre-match assessment favoring the hosts. The game featured no red cards and progressed without major interruptions. Iraq's defensive structure was repeatedly breached after the interval. Norway capitalized on transitions and set-piece opportunities to extend their advantage. The final margin reflected the away side's superior chance creation throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Iraq 1-4 Norway. Norway showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency was in line with the expected patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome aligned with the xG projections as Norway secured the victory.
  • Market alignment: The result was consistent with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: Iraq generated 1.44 xG while Norway created 2.74 xG in the encounter.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards altered the flow of the game significantly.
  • Red card distortion: The absence of red cards meant no distortion occurred in the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Atcho

Gabon 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

B. Ditsoga

1st Assistant

Gabon

A. Ndong

2nd Assistant

A. Omar

4th Official

Egypt

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 8.94
Yellow cards / match 0.89
Red cards / match 0.06
Penalties / match 0.04
Iraq G. Arnold
G. Arnold
VS
Norway S. Solbakken
S. Solbakken
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Iraq
8.06%
Draw
14.38%
Away Norway
77.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Iraq
+7.82%
Draw
+12.46%
Norway
-20.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
46.67
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Iraq
Norway
Power Score
46.67
33.33
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
57
31

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Iraq — Opponent-weighted form score
Norway — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Iraq Norway

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Iraq

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Norway

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Iraq ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norway
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.67
22.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.87
31.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Iraq +0.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Norway -0.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Iraq
Norway
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Iraq
vs
Norway
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Iraq Norway
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
21%
25%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.31 vs -0.67
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Iraq Norway
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
25%
21%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.67 vs -0.31
Iraq
Norway
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Iraq
vs
Norway
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Iraq Norway
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Iraq 0.41
Norway 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Iraq Norway
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Iraq 0.10
Norway 0.04
Iraq
Norway
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • IRQ had peak pressure around 50'.
  • IRQ started the game with stronger pressure.
IRQ Pressure NOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: IRQ reached the top pressure at 50' (86.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Iraq IRQ Home
0 matches
Norway NOR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-17T00:00:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Hachim
Iraq
12 (C) J. Hachim
H. Ali
Substitution
Iraq
3 H. Ali
Z. Hantoosh
Iraq
4 Z. Hantoosh
A. Rahman
Iraq
5 A. Rahman
M. Doski
Iraq
23 M. Doski
I. Bayesh
Substitution
Iraq
8 I. Bayesh
Z. Al Dulaimi
Substitution
Iraq
24 Z. Al Dulaimi
A. Al-Ammari
Iraq
16 A. Al-Ammari
A. Al Tameemi
Substitution
Iraq
17 A. Al Tameemi
A. Hussein
Iraq
18 A. Hussein
A. Al-Hamadi
Substitution
Iraq
9 A. Al-Hamadi

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 16, 2026, 10:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium :
Boston Stadium
Capacity :
66829
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pierre Ghislain Atcho
Boris Ditsoga
A. Ndong
Amin Mohamed Omar

Statistics

Possession
IRQ
43%
NOR
57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 5
10 Shots 8
27 Dangerous attacks 39
39 Possession 61
2 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

60 Ball Safe 71
10 Goal Kicks 9
9 Goal Attempts 9
7 Substitutions 7
14 Throwins 22
10 Successful Headers 17
1 Assists 2
2 Injuries 0
21 Dribble Attempts 18
10 Successful Dribbles 5
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 28

Attacking

79 Attacks 89
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

53 Long Passes 42
333 Passes 535
271 Successful Passes 476
81 Successful Passes Percentage 89
8 Key Passes 10
22 Successful Long Passes 18
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

2 Saves 0
19 Tackles 16
5 Interceptions 3
52 Duels Won 48

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Pierre Ghislain Atcho

Starting XI ▼

12
Jalal Hassan
Jalal Hassan (C) Goalkeeper
5.49
3
Hussein Ali
Hussein Ali Defender
6.2
25
Mustafa Saadoon
Mustafa Saadoon
Defender74'
6.42
4
Zaid Tahseen
Zaid Tahseen Defender
5.71
5
Akam Hashem
Akam Hashem Defender
6.46
23
Merchas Doski
Merchas Doski Defender
6.96
8
Ibrahim Bayesh
Ibrahim Bayesh Midfielder
6.39
10
Mohanad Ali
Mohanad Ali
Attacker78'
6.5
16
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
6.72
17
Ali Jasim
Ali Jasim Midfielder
6.75
11
Ahmed Qasem
Ahmed Qasem
Attacker74'
6.46
24
Zaid Ismail
Zaid Ismail Midfielder
6.53
14
Zidane Iqbal
Zidane Iqbal
Midfielder59'
6.59
9
Ali Al-Hamadi
Ali Al-Hamadi Attacker
6.98
21
Marko Farji
Marko Farji
Midfielder59'
6.36
18
Aymen Hussein
Aymen Hussein Attacker
7.35
Referee : Pierre Ghislain Atcho

Starting XI ▼

1
Ørjan Nyland
Ørjan Nyland Goalkeeper
6.44
3
Kristoffer Ajer
Kristoffer Ajer Defender
6.76
5
David Møller Wolfe
David Møller Wolfe Defender
6.87
4
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård
Defender73'
7.3
17
Torbjørn Heggem
Torbjørn Heggem Defender
6.59
26
Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Defender
6.83
8
Sander Berge
Sander Berge Midfielder
6.95
10
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard (C) Midfielder
7.2
6
Patrick Berg
Patrick Berg
Midfielder81'
6.46
14
Fredrik Aursnes
Fredrik Aursnes Midfielder
6.6
18
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt
Midfielder73'
6.64
20
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa Midfielder
6.51
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup
Attacker73'
6.48
7
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
6.33
22
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb
Midfielder73'
6.64
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
2
8.12

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Aymen Hussein
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
Event
Zaid Tahseen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
86'
81'
Event
Patrick Berg → Martin Ødegaard
10th Substitution
Event
Mohanad Ali → Ibrahim Bayesh
9th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Leo Østigård
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Ahmed Qasem → Ali Jasim
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Mustafa Saadoon → Hussein Ali
8th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Oscar Bobb  → Alexander Sørloth
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Leo Østigård → David Møller Wolfe
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Andreas Schjelderup → Antonio Nusa
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Kristian Thorstvedt → Fredrik Aursnes
6th Substitution
Event
Marko Farji → Ali Al-Hamadi
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Zidane Iqbal → Zaid Ismail
2nd Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Erling Haaland
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Aymen Hussein
Header / 2nd Goal
39'
29'
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Kristian Thorstvedt (Norway) took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
90
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
90
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Aymen Hussein from Iraq.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Julian Ryerson of Norway.
90
Update Update
Marko Farji from Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mustafa Saadoon from Iraq.
90
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup wins a free kick for Norway in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mustafa Saadoon of Iraq.
90
Update Update
Erling Haaland wins a free kick for Norway on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Erling Haaland wins a free kick for Norway on the left wing.
86
Update Update
Erling Haaland wins a free kick for Norway in the attacking half.
86
Update Update
Erling Haaland wins a free kick for Norway in the attacking half.
86
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Kristian Thorstvedt (Norway) took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Zaid Tahseen of Iraq.
82
Update Update
Erling Haaland wins a free kick on the left wing for Norway.
82
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Leo Østigård's header from the center of the box goes to the right. Julian Ryerson provided the assist with a cross after a set piece.
82
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Erling Haaland's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Jalal Hassan.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Zaid Tahseen of Iraq.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Erling Haaland of Norway.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Patrick Berg comes on for Martin Ødegaard.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Martin Ødegaard (Norway).
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Iraq: Mohanad Ali comes on for Ibrahim Bayesh.
78
Update Update
Zaid Tahseen from Iraq wins a free kick in the attacking half.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norway leads 3-1 after Leo Østigård scores with a header from very close range following a corner.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Thorstvedt's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Oscar Bobb provided the assist.
76
Update Update
Merchas Doski of Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Iraq: Ahmed Qasem comes on for Ali Jasim due to an injury.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Iraq: Mustafa Saadoon comes on for Hussein Ali.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Oscar Bobb comes on for Alexander Sørloth.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Leo Østigård comes on for David Møller Wolfe.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Kristian Thorstvedt comes on for Fredrik Aursnes.
73
Corner Corner
Norway wins a corner after Merchas Doski concedes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norway: Andreas Schjelderup comes on for Antonio Nusa.
69
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ali Jasim from Iraq.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
69
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
66
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
64
Update Update
Merchas Doski from Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
64
Corner Corner
Norway wins a corner after Hussein Ali concedes.
63
Update Update
Merchas Doski from Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
59
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Iraq: Marko Farji comes on for Ali Al Hamadi.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Sørloth of Norway.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Iraq: Zidane Iqbal comes on for Zaid Ismael.
56
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ali Jasim from Iraq.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Zaid Ismael of Iraq.
54
Update Update
Martin Ødegaard (Norway) is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Amir Al Ammari of Iraq.
54
Corner Corner
Norway is awarded a corner after Akam Hashim concedes.
53
Update Update
Antonio Nusa from Norway wins a free kick on the left wing.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Aymen Hussein of Iraq.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Aymen Hussein from Iraq takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
47
Update Update
David Møller Wolfe from Norway is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Update Update
Hussein Ali of Iraq is caught offside.
45
Update Update
Zaid Tahseen from Iraq wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Erling Haaland commits a foul for Norway.
45
Update Update
Akam Hashim from Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Corner Corner
Iraq has been awarded a corner after David Møller Wolfe conceded it.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Bayesh's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked. He was assisted by Ali Al Hamadi.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ali Al Hamadi's header from the center of the box goes to the right. He was assisted by Merchas Doski's cross.
45
Corner Corner
Zaid Tahseen from Iraq misses the attempt, heading the ball high and wide to the left from the left side of the six-yard box. Amir Al Ammari provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
45
Corner Corner
Zaid Tahseen from Iraq misses the attempt with a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the left. Amir Al Ammari provided the assist with a cross following a corner.
45
Corner Corner
Akam Hashim from Iraq misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it too high after a corner.
45
Corner Corner
Iraq is awarded a corner after Kristoffer Ajer concedes.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ali Al Hamadi's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Ali Jasim.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Iraq 1, Norway 2.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by David Møller Wolfe of Norway.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Zaid Ismael from Iraq commits a handball.
43
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Erling Haaland scores for Norway with a right-footed shot from very close range. The score is now Iraq 1, Norway 2.
37
Update Update
Merchas Doski from Iraq wins a free kick in the defensive half.
37
Update Update
Goal! Aymen Hussein scores for Iraq with a header from the center of the box. The match is now 1-1.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Erling Haaland's right-footed shot from very close range is saved in the center of the goal.
36
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Martin Ødegaard (Norway) took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Sørloth of Norway.
35
Update Update
David Møller Wolfe from Norway commits a foul.
35
Update Update
Ibrahim Bayesh from Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth wins a free kick for Norway in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Aymen Hussein of Iraq.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Sander Berge of Norway.
31
Update Update
Jalal Hassan wins a free kick for Iraq in the defensive half.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Norway wins a corner after Hussein Ali concedes.
28
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Sørloth's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
27
Update Update
Goal! Norway takes the lead 1-0 with Erling Haaland scoring from very close range with his left foot.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by David Møller Wolfe of Norway.
24
Update Update
Ibrahim Bayesh from Iraq is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
24
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
24
Attempt Attempt
Zaid Tahseen from Iraq misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box after a set piece situation.
22
Update Update
Alexander Sørloth's header from the center of the box is blocked.
22
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Zaid Ismael of Iraq.
19
Update Update
Antonio Nusa from Norway wins a free kick on the left wing.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norway after Ibrahim Bayesh concedes.
17
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Erling Haaland's header from the center of the box is too high. Julian Ryerson provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Zaid Tahseen of Iraq.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Ali Al Hamadi from Iraq, who took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
10
Update Update
Sander Berge wins a free kick for Norway on the left wing.
8
Update Update
Kristoffer Ajer from Norway wins a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Al Hamadi from Iraq.
6
Update Update
Julian Ryerson commits a foul for Norway.
6
Update Update
Merchas Doski from Iraq wins a free kick on the left wing.
5
Update Update
Akam Hashim from Iraq is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Update Update
Aymen Hussein from Iraq misses the attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it too high after a set piece situation.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexander Sørloth of Norway.
1
Update Update
Aymen Hussein wins a free kick for Iraq in the attacking half.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Iraq 1-4 Norway. Structural assessment: Norway exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Iraq vs Norway preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.