Netherlands vs Japan Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Dallas Stadium Sun, 14 Jun - 8:00 PM
World Cup
Netherlands NED
2 – 2
Japan JPN
Full Time Sun, 14 Jun 8:00 PM
Round 1 Group Stage
Crysencio Summerville - 64'
Virgil van Dijk  - 51'
Goal
|
Goal
Daichi Kamada - 88'
Keito Nakamura - 57'

CONTEXT

The encounter between Netherlands and Japan concluded with a 2-2 draw after both sides were level at 0-0 following the first half. Netherlands controlled 60 percent of possession and generated an expected goals total of 1.04 while Japan recorded 0.49 expected goals. The stronger side according to pre-match assessment failed to convert its underlying metrics into a victory. The final scoreline diverged from the expected goals differential of 0.55. No red cards were issued during the contest. The outcome reflected a balanced second half adjustment despite the initial dominance in territorial control by the home side. This result highlighted the gap between statistical projections and actual finishing efficiency across both teams.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Netherlands showed a significant 72.4 percent deviation from pre-match expectations in the draw outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with observed possession and chance creation patterns.
  • xG alignment: The 2-2 result was not consistent with the 1.04 to 0.49 expected goals split.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market projections favoring Netherlands.
  • xG expectations: Netherlands held a 0.55 expected goals advantage yet could not secure a win.
  • Event impact: No notable second half adjustments altered the flow after the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were recorded leaving match dynamics unaffected by dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Elfath

United States 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

C. Parker

1st Assistant

United States

K. Atkins

2nd Assistant

United States

K. Itzel García

4th Official

Mexico

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 7.05
Yellow cards / match 0.79
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.05
Netherlands R. Koeman
R. Koeman
VS
Japan H. Moriyasu
H. Moriyasu
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Netherlands
47.43%
Draw
27.56%
Away Japan
25.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Netherlands
+42.96%
Draw
-64.37%
Japan
+21.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
70.37
37.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Netherlands
Japan
Power Score
70.37
37.04
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
7
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Netherlands — Opponent-weighted form score
Japan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Netherlands Japan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Netherlands

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Japan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Netherlands ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Japan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.67
30.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.38
21.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Netherlands -0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Japan +0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Netherlands
Japan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Netherlands
vs
Japan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Netherlands Japan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
37%
19%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.39 vs -0.09
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Netherlands Japan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
19%
37%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.09 vs -0.39
Netherlands
Japan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Netherlands
vs
Japan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Netherlands Japan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Netherlands 0.17
Japan 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Netherlands Japan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Netherlands 0.05
Japan 0.03
Netherlands
Japan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NED had peak pressure around 38'.
  • NED started the game with stronger pressure.
NED Pressure JPN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NED reached the top pressure at 38' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Netherlands NED Home
1 matches
Japan JPN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-06-15T00:00:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands
1 B. Verbruggen
D. Dumfries
Netherlands
22 D. Dumfries
J. van Hecke
Netherlands
6 J. van Hecke
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 (C) V. van Dijk
M. van de Ven
Netherlands
15 M. van de Ven
R. Gravenberch
Substitution
Netherlands
8 R. Gravenberch
F. de Jong
Netherlands
21 F. de Jong
T. Reijnders
Substitution
Netherlands
14 T. Reijnders
C. Summerville
Substitution
Netherlands
24 C. Summerville
D. Malen
Substitution
Netherlands
18 D. Malen
C. Gakpo
Substitution
Netherlands
11 C. Gakpo
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
1 Z. Suzuki
H. Ito
Japan
21 H. Ito
S. Taniguchi
Japan
3 S. Taniguchi
T. Watanabe
Substitution
Japan
16 T. Watanabe
K. Nakamura
Japan
13 K. Nakamura
D. Kamada
Japan
15 D. Kamada
K. Sano
Japan
24 K. Sano
R. Doan
Substitution
Japan
10 (C) R. Doan
D. Maeda
Substitution
Japan
11 D. Maeda
T. Kubo
Substitution
Japan
8 T. Kubo
A. Ueda
Substitution
Japan
18 A. Ueda

General Information

Date & Time :
Jun 14, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium :
Dallas Stadium
Capacity :
80000
Attendance :
69285
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ismail Elfath
Corey Parker
Kyle Atkins
Katia Itzel García

Statistics

Possession
NED
59%
JPN
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 7
60 Dangerous attacks 43
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

58 Ball Safe 52
9 Goal Kicks 7
11 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 5
21 Throwins 19
20 Successful Headers 7
2 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
14 Dribble Attempts 9
7 Successful Dribbles 3
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

Attacking

106 Attacks 76

Possession

36 Long Passes 38
525 Passes 342
464 Successful Passes 287
88 Successful Passes Percentage 84
10 Key Passes 10
17 Successful Long Passes 14
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

1 Saves 4
11 Tackles 11
7 Interceptions 4
44 Duels Won 28

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 23
8 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
6.1
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk (C) Defender
7.47
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
6.97
15
Micky van de Ven
Micky van de Ven Defender
6.55
22
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries Defender
6.72
8
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
7.58
5
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké
Defender81'
6.27
14
Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder
6.91
26
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber
Midfielder70'
6.52
21
Frenkie de Jong
Frenkie de Jong Midfielder
7.24
11
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Attacker
7.25
19
Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey
Attacker85'
6.48
18
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Attacker
6.74
10
Memphis Depay
Memphis Depay
Attacker70'
6.37
24
Crysencio Summerville
Crysencio Summerville Attacker
7.42
20
Teun Koopmeiners
Teun Koopmeiners
Midfielder70'
6.56
Referee : Ismail Elfath

Starting XI ▼

1
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
6.7
3
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
6.58
16
Tsuyoshi Watanabe
Tsuyoshi Watanabe Defender
6.77
22
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Defender75'
6.65
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
6.33
10
Ritsu Doan
Ritsu Doan (C) Midfielder
6.26
2
Yukinari Sugawara
Yukinari Sugawara
Defender75'
6.86
13
Keito Nakamura
Keito Nakamura Midfielder
7.71
15
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada Midfielder
7.54
24
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.22
8
Takefusa Kubo
Takefusa Kubo Attacker
6.89
19
Koki Ogawa
Koki Ogawa
Attacker75'
6.88
11
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
6.19
14
Junya Ito
Junya Ito
Attacker66'
6.98
18
Ayase Ueda
Ayase Ueda Attacker
6.73
26
Kento Shiogai
Kento Shiogai
Attacker84'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Micky van de Ven
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
88'
Event
Daichi Kamada
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Brian Brobbey → Cody Gakpo
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Kento Shiogai → Ayase Ueda
9th Substitution
Event
Memphis Depay
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Nathan Aké → Ryan Gravenberch
8th Substitution
81'
75'
Event
Koki Ogawa → Takefusa Kubo
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Yukinari Sugawara → Ritsu Doan
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Takehiro Tomiyasu → Tsuyoshi Watanabe 
7th Substitution
Event
Memphis Depay → Donyell Malen
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Teun Koopmeiners → Crysencio Summerville
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Quinten Timber → Tijjani Reijnders
4th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Junya Ito → Daizen Maeda
1st Substitution
Event
Crysencio Summerville
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Crysencio Summerville
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
57'
Event
Keito Nakamura
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Virgil van Dijk 
Header / 1st Goal
51'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Delay in the match in the Netherlands.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Micky van de Ven of the Netherlands receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Junya Ito wins a free kick for Japan on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Micky van de Ven of the Netherlands.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Teun Koopmeiners (Netherlands) had a header from the left side of the six-yard box.
90
Update Update
Teun Koopmeiners from the Netherlands misses an attempt with a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the left. Denzel Dumfries provided the assist with a cross.
90
Update Update
Teun Koopmeiners from the Netherlands misses an attempt with a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the left. The cross was assisted by Denzel Dumfries.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
88
Corner Corner
Goal! Daichi Kamada scores for Japan with a header from the center of the box after a corner. The match is now 2-2.
88
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
87
Update Update
Koki Ogawa's header from the center of the box is blocked.
86
Corner Corner
Japan wins a corner after Micky van de Ven concedes.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Japan after Denzel Dumfries concedes.
85
Update Update
Teun Koopmeiners of the Netherlands commits a foul.
84
Update Update
Frenkie de Jong wins a free kick for the Netherlands in the defensive half.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the Netherlands: Brian Brobbey comes on for Cody Gakpo.
84
Update Update
Takehiro Tomiyasu wins a free kick for Japan on the right wing.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Memphis Depay from the Netherlands.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Kento Shiogai comes on for Ayase Ueda.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Takehiro Tomiyasu of Japan.
81
Update Update
Shogo Taniguchi wins a free kick for Japan in the attacking half.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Memphis Depay of the Netherlands receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the Netherlands: Nathan Aké comes on for Ryan Gravenberch.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the Netherlands: Nathan Aké comes on for Ryan Gravenberch.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Yukinari Sugawara comes on for Ritsu Doan.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Yukinari Sugawara comes on for Ritsu Doan.
75
Update Update
Koki Ogawa from Japan misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Yukinari Sugawara provided the assist with a cross.
75
Attempt Attempt
Yukinari Sugawara's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Bart Verbruggen. The attempt was assisted by Junya Ito.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Takehiro Tomiyasu comes on for Tsuyoshi Watanabe.
73
Corner Corner
Cody Gakpo's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Zion Suzuki. The attempt was assisted by Frenkie de Jong.
73
Corner Corner
Japan wins a corner after Micky van de Ven concedes.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Koki Ogawa comes on for Takefusa Kubo due to an injury.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the Netherlands after a concession by Zion Suzuki.
72
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Jan Paul van Hecke's header from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the top right corner by Zion Suzuki. Memphis Depay provided the assist with a cross.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the Netherlands: Memphis Depay comes on for Donyell Malen.
70
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Takefusa Kubo from Japan.
70
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Takefusa Kubo from Japan.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the Netherlands: Teun Koopmeiners comes on for Crysencio Summerville.
67
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for the Netherlands: Memphis Depay comes on for Donyell Malen.
66
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Takefusa Kubo (Japan) took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
66
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Japan: Junya Ito comes on for Daizen Maeda.
65
Update Update
Cody Gakpo is caught offside for the Netherlands.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jan Paul van Hecke from the Netherlands is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
62
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Crysencio Summerville scores for the Netherlands with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box. The score is now Netherlands 2, Japan 1.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Ayase Ueda of Japan.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Crysencio Summerville from the Netherlands receives a yellow card for a foul.
61
Update Update
Crysencio Summerville of the Netherlands is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
61
Update Update
Crysencio Summerville from the Netherlands wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Crysencio Summerville commits a foul for the Netherlands.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tsuyoshi Watanabe wins a free kick for Japan in the attacking half.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner awarded to the Netherlands after Ayase Ueda concedes.
50
Update Update
Goal! Netherlands lead Japan 1-0. Virgil van Dijk scores for the Netherlands with a header from the center of the box after a set piece.
50
Attempt Attempt
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Keito Nakamura scores for Japan with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Ritsu Doan of Japan.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the Netherlands after a foul by Keito Nakamura.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the Netherlands after a concession by Keito Nakamura.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0 between the Netherlands and Japan.
45
Update Update
Cody Gakpo wins a free kick for the Netherlands on the left wing.
44
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
44
Update Update
Crysencio Summerville from the Netherlands is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ayase Ueda from Japan misses a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it close but to the right. The attempt was assisted by Daichi Kamada with a through ball.
36
Update Update
Frenkie de Jong commits a foul for the Netherlands.
35
Update Update
Takefusa Kubo from Japan wins a free kick in the attacking half.
34
Update Update
Denzel Dumfries from the Netherlands misses a header from the center of the box after a set piece situation.
34
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Keito Nakamura from Japan takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
33
Update Update
Keito Nakamura commits a handball for Japan.
31
Corner Corner
Micky van de Ven from the Netherlands misses a header from the center of the box after a corner.
31
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen's header from the center of the box is saved.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to the Netherlands after Shogo Taniguchi concedes.
26
Update Update
Delay in the match in the Netherlands.
23
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
21
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
21
Attempt Attempt
Hiroki Ito from Japan misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
14
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Keito Nakamura of Japan.
8
Update Update
Crysencio Summerville from the Netherlands wins a free kick on the right wing.
6
Update Update
Ayase Ueda from Japan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Japan after a concession by Denzel Dumfries.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Micky van de Ven of the Netherlands.
3
Update Update
Frenkie de Jong commits a foul for the Netherlands.
1
Update Update
Keito Nakamura from Japan is awarded a free kick on the left wing.

CONCLUSION

Netherlands maintained territorial superiority through higher possession and chance creation but could not overcome Japan's defensive organization to claim all three points. The even halftime score of 0-0 set the stage for a second half where both teams found the net twice. Expected goals data indicated a clearer advantage for the home side that did not materialize on the scoreboard. Absence of disciplinary incidents allowed both teams to retain full tactical options throughout the ninety minutes. The draw represents a case where finishing variance overrode underlying performance indicators. Japan demonstrated resilience by matching Netherlands goal for goal despite lower overall metrics. This fixture underscores how closely contested matches can produce results detached from statistical forecasts when conversion rates fluctuate.

Netherlands vs Japan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

World Cup, World View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.