Almería vs Real Valladolid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 31 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
1 Winner 0
Real Valladolid REV
Full Time Sun, 31 May 4:30 PM
Round 42 Regular Season
Sergio Arribas - 57' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Almería hosted Real Valladolid in a match that concluded with a 1-0 home victory after a goalless first half. The stronger side according to pre-match indicators secured the points through a second-half goal while maintaining 46 percent possession against the visitors 54 percent. No red cards were shown to either team and the game remained even at halftime. Expected goals figures were unavailable yet the result proved consistent with the designated stronger team prevailing. The outcome reflected a significant structural deviation from initial projections centered on Almería. Efficiency metrics stayed aligned with expectations throughout the contest. This narrow win allowed Almería to claim all three points in a tightly contested encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Almería 1-0 Real Valladolid. Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The match outcome aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were provided in the data.
  • Event impact: The sole goal in the second half secured the victory for Almería.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued during the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Pérez Hernández

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Martínez Montalbán

4th Official

Spain

G. López Romera

1st Assistant

Spain

S. Rebollo Merino

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.77
Yellow cards / match 5.13
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.32
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
1.68
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: L
Burgos Rank: D
Mirandés Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
Málaga Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Racing Santander Rank: L
Real Zaragoza Rank: W
Las Palmas Rank: L
Real Sociedad II Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 11 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
66.39%
Draw
19.53%
Away Real Valladolid
14.08%

Movement

Changes since opening
Almería
-31.04%
Draw
+17.15%
Real Valladolid
+13.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.14
19.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Real Valladolid
Power Score
30.14
19.33
League Position
3
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Real Valladolid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
60.43
17.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.13
60.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +4.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Valladolid -4.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Real Valladolid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Real Valladolid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Real Valladolid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Real Valladolid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Almería
vs
Real Valladolid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Almería Real Valladolid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería 0.45
Real Valladolid 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería Real Valladolid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Almería 0.00
Real Valladolid 0.02
Almería
Real Valladolid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ALM had peak pressure around 61'.
  • ALM started the game with stronger pressure.
ALM Pressure REV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ALM reached the top pressure at 61' (82.97).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
25 matches
Real Valladolid REV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
11
Draws
11
8
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
25
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-06-01T00:01:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Substitution
Brazil
12 (C) L. Carrilho Baptistão
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Pitch
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Portugal
13 G. Carvalho Fernandes
C. Clerc Martínez
Spain
18 C. Clerc Martínez
D. Torres Ortiz
Spain
4 (C) D. Torres Ortiz
P. Tomeo Félez
Spain
15 P. Tomeo Félez
C. Michelin
France
2 C. Michelin
I. Alani
Substitution
12 I. Alani
S. Biuk
Substitution
Croatia
17 S. Biuk
A. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
11 A. Ndiaye
J. Ponceau
Substitution
France
21 J. Ponceau
?. Carvajal García
Substitution
Spain
38 ?. Carvajal García
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
Spain
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos

General Information

Date & Time :
May 31, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity :
17400
Attendance :
16648
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández
José David Martínez Montalbán
Gonzalo López Romera
S. Rebollo Merino

Statistics

Possession
ALM
48%
REV
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
7 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 25
46 Possession 54
2 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 11
4 Successful Dribbles 11
2 Injuries 1
15 Dribble Attempts 18
5 Substitutions 5
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
29 Throwins 16
35 Ball Safe 67
16 Goal Attempts 7
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

6 Big Chances Missed 2
89 Attacks 88

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 26
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
16 Key Passes 7
343 Passes 402
86 Successful Passes Percentage 84
31 Long Passes 58
294 Successful Passes 337

Defensive

5 Interceptions 4
46 Duels Won 62
4 Saves 7
17 Tackles 22

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
17 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

17 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.52
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
7.35
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
7.63
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
7.02
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino
Defender87'
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
6.93
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.81
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder72'
6.63
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão (C) Midfielder
7.05
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder80'
6.08
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
6.97
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
7.24
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker72'
6.61
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
6.65
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.62
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker87'
Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Guilherme Fernandes
Guilherme Fernandes Goalkeeper
7.86
2
Clément Michelin
Clément Michelin Defender
7.05
4
David Torres
David Torres (C) Defender
7.45
15
Pablo Tomeo
Pablo Tomeo Defender
6.72
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc Defender
7.2
11
Amath Ndiaye
Amath Ndiaye Midfielder
6.24
8
Víctor Meseguer
Víctor Meseguer
Midfielder66'
6.47
12
Ibrahim Alani
Ibrahim Alani Midfielder
6.71
16
Mario Maroto
Mario Maroto
Midfielder66'
6.49
17
Stipe Biuk
Stipe Biuk Midfielder
6.71
40
Chinedu Brain
Chinedu Brain
Attacker81'
6.55
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
7.54
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo
Attacker81'
6.63
38
Angel Carvajal
Angel Carvajal Midfielder
6.37
22
Peter Federico
Peter Federico
Attacker66'
6.26
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Chinedu Brain
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Arnau Puigmal
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Daijiro Chirino → Marcos Luna
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
10th Substitution
87'
81'
Event
Chinedu Brain → Stipe Biuk
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Iván Alejo → Julien Ponceau
7th Substitution
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Léo Baptistão
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Adrián Embarba
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Nico Melamed → Sergio Arribas
4th Substitution
72'
67'
Event
Francisco Escribá Segura
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Víctor Meseguer → Amath Ndiaye
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Mario Maroto → Ibrahim Alani
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Peter Federico → Angel Carvajal
1st Substitution
Event
Sergio Arribas
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
57'
55'
Event
Pablo Tomeo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Álex Muñoz
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
42'
42'
Event
Clément Michelin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Carlos Clerc
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Morcillo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Arnau Puigmal attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Morcillo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Update Update
Daijiro Chirino comes on for Marcos Luna.
87
Update Update
Thalys Gomes De Araujo is on, and Miguel De la Fuente is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Brain Chinedu is on, and Stipe Biuk is off.
81
Update Update
Ivan Alejo is on, and Julien Ponceau is off.
80
Update Update
Arnau Puigmal comes on for Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao.
79
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo takes a shot with his left foot, but it is saved.
72
Update Update
Nicolas Melamed Ribaudo comes on for Sergio Arribas Calvo.
72
Update Update
Jon Morcillo replaces Adrian Embarba.
67
Update Update
Victor Meseguer is on, and Amath Ndiaye Diedhiou is off.
66
Substitution Substitution
Mario Maroto is substituted for Ibrahim Alani.
66
Update Update
Peter Federico replaces Angel Carvajal.
65
Attempt Attempt
Juanmi Latasa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Dion Lopy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Luna's header is saved.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Sergio Arribas Calvo scores, making it 1-0.
57
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a left-footed shot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Federico Bonini attempts a header but misses the shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Clement Michelin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao's header shot misses the target.
43
Attempt Attempt
Juanmi Latasa's header is saved.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alex Munoz receives a yellow card.
40
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Juanmi Latasa attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Clerc Martinez receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Julien Ponceau takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Angel Carvajal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Embarba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Clement Michelin's right-footed shot is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Miguel De la Fuente takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Stefan Džodić takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Juanmi Latasa's header is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Arribas Calvo attempts a header but misses the shot.
1
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao's header is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Carrilho Baptistao takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Almería claimed a hard-fought 1-0 win over Real Valladolid that highlighted their ability to deliver results despite lower possession figures. The second-half goal proved decisive after both sides failed to score before the interval. Absence of red cards ensured the contest stayed at full strength for the full duration. With expected goals information missing the performance evaluation relied on observed events and possession data. The significant deviation noted for the home side underscored their capacity to outperform initial structural forecasts. Efficiency levels matched projections allowing Almería to convert opportunities effectively. Overall the result reinforced the stronger team designation while providing a clean sheet and three points in a match defined by limited scoring chances.

Almería vs Real Valladolid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.