Castellón vs SD Eibar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Sun, 31 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
2 Winner 1
SD Eibar EIB
Full Time Sun, 31 May 4:30 PM
Round 42 Regular Season
Israel Suero - 71'
Álex Calatrava - 43'
Goal
|
Goal
José Corpas - 57'

CONTEXT

Castellón hosted SD Eibar in a match that concluded with a 2-1 home victory after a 1-0 halftime lead. The home side struck first in the opening period and added a second goal after the break while the visitors pulled one back late. Possession finished at 53 percent for Castellón and 47 percent for SD Eibar. No red cards were shown to either team. Although SD Eibar entered as the stronger side the result went to Castellón. The deviation from expected patterns measured 3.9 percent and remained at a minimal level. The outcome proved consistent with available market signals and efficiency metrics stayed aligned with prior benchmarks.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured 3.9 percent at a minimal level for Castellón.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match benchmarks for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable so alignment could not be confirmed.
  • Market alignment: Final result stayed aligned with market projections for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: No xG values were recorded to shape expectations for either team.
  • Event impact: Castellón recorded a 2-1 win over SD Eibar after leading 1-0 at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so disciplinary events created no outcome distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Muñiz Muñoz

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. García Valín

2nd Assistant

Spain

F. Estela Bravo

1st Assistant

Spain

J. Campos Salinas

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.77
Yellow cards / match 5.13
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.32
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
SD Eibar B. San José Gil
B. San José Gil
1.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: D
Ceuta Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: L
Málaga Rank: W
Burgos Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: W
Cultural Leonesa Rank: L
Mirandés Rank: W
Málaga Rank: L
Albacete Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away SD Eibar
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Castellón
+0.88%
Draw
-0.88%
SD Eibar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.75
33.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
SD Eibar
Power Score
31.75
33.71
League Position
6
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
SD Eibar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón SD Eibar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SD Eibar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SD Eibar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.51
29.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.79
46.51
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Castellón +1.67 Efficiency Index
vs
SD Eibar -1.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
SD Eibar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SD Eibar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón SD Eibar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón SD Eibar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
SD Eibar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Castellón
vs
SD Eibar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Castellón SD Eibar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Castellón 0.29
SD Eibar 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Castellón SD Eibar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Castellón 0.03
SD Eibar 0.03
Castellón
SD Eibar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Castellón had peak pressure around 25'.
  • Castellón started the game with stronger pressure.
Castellón Pressure EIB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Castellón reached the top pressure at 25' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
10 matches
SD Eibar EIB Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
6
Goals
12
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
12
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-06-01T00:01:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 (C) A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
A. Sienra
Substitution
Argentina
4 A. Sienra
A. Calatrava Torrado
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
B. Kibambe Cipenga
Substitution
DR Congo
16 B. Kibambe Cipenga
O. Camara
Guinea
9 O. Camara
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
Pitch
J. Magunagoitia Blasco
Spain
13 J. Magunagoitia Blasco
J. Bernat Velasco
Spain
24 J. Bernat Velasco
A. Arbilla Zabala
Spain
23 (C) A. Arbilla Zabala
J. Amador Silos
Portugal
15 J. Amador Silos
M. Ojeda
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Ojeda
S. Cubero Ezcurra
Substitution
Spain
2 S. Cubero Ezcurra
J. Corpas Serna
Spain
17 J. Corpas Serna
A. Madariaga Susaeta
Substitution
Spain
16 A. Madariaga Susaeta
S. Álvarez Díaz
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Álvarez Díaz
M. Ares Djalo
Spain
18 M. Ares Djalo
J. Martón Ansó
Substitution
Spain
20 J. Martón Ansó

General Information

Date & Time :
May 31, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity :
15500
Attendance :
14031
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Brais García Valín
Fernando Estela Bravo
Juan Antonio Campos Salinas

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
53%
EIB
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
21 Shots 12
73 Dangerous attacks 40
53 Possession 47
8 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 14
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
27 Dribble Attempts 22
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
26 Throwins 13
16 Successful Dribbles 12
1 Hit Woodwork 1
15 Goal Attempts 5
58 Ball Safe 65

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 2
112 Attacks 75

Possession

13 Successful Long Passes 19
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
16 Key Passes 9
33 Long Passes 44
365 Successful Passes 309
85 Successful Passes Percentage 83
429 Passes 372

Defensive

1 Saves 7
14 Tackles 21
46 Duels Won 59
6 Interceptions 10

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6
19 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

15 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.67
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
6.91
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra Defender
6.51
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar
Defender65'
6.51
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez (C) Defender
7.26
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Defender
6.96
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder81'
6.69
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
7.1
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Midfielder
6.77
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
6.29
14
Raúl Sánchez
Raúl Sánchez
Attacker81'
6.6
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Midfielder
8.84
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker90+2'
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.5
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Attacker
7.32
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder65'
7.43
Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

13
Jonmi Magunagoitia
Jonmi Magunagoitia Goalkeeper
7.84
2
Sergio Cubero
Sergio Cubero Defender
7.42
27
Hugo García
Hugo García
Attacker82'
7.18
15
Jair Amador
Jair Amador Defender
6.8
21
Marco Moreno
Marco Moreno Defender
6.31
30
Aleix Garrido
Aleix Garrido
Midfielder66'
6.1
23
Anaitz Arbilla
Anaitz Arbilla (C) Defender
7.01
24
Juan Bernat
Juan Bernat Defender
6.57
6
Sergio Álvarez
Sergio Álvarez Midfielder
7.03
5
Javi Martínez
Javi Martínez
Midfielder82'
6.78
16
Ander Madariaga
Ander Madariaga Midfielder
6.46
11
Jon Magunazelaia
Jon Magunazelaia
Midfielder82'
6.58
17
José Corpas
José Corpas Midfielder
7.47
18
Adu Ares
Adu Ares Midfielder
6.6
20
Javi Martón
Javi Martón Attacker
6.07
9
Jon Bautista
Jon Bautista
Attacker66'
6.3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Álvaro García → Álex Calatrava
10th Substitution
90+2'
82'
Event
Jon Magunazelaia → Ander Madariaga
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Javi Martínez → Sergio Álvarez
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Hugo García → Sergio Cubero
7th Substitution
Event
Raúl Sánchez → Brian Cipenga
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Pablo Santiago
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Israel Suero
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
66'
Event
Aleix Garrido → Marco Moreno
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Jon Bautista → Javi Martón
3rd Substitution
Event
Lucas Alcázar → Agustín Sienra
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Israel Suero → Adam Jakobsen
2nd Substitution
65'
57'
Event
José Corpas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
49'
Event
Juan Bernat
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Álex Calatrava
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
43'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Alvaro Garcia comes on for Alex Calatrava.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raul Sanchez takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Jon Bautista attempts a header but misses the target.
90
Update Update
Jon Bautista takes a header, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Jon Bautista's left-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Garcia's right-footed shot is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Garcia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Raul Sanchez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Javier Martinez Calvo is on, and Sergio Alvarez Diaz is off.
82
Update Update
Hugo Garcia replaces Sergio Cubero.
82
Update Update
Jon Magunazelaia Argoitia comes on for Ander Madariaga.
81
Update Update
Marc Olivier Doue is on, and Pablo Santiago is off.
81
Update Update
Raul Sanchez replaces Brian Cipenga.
71
Attempt Attempt
Barri's left-footed shot is saved.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Israel Suero Fernández scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Alex Calatrava.
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Israel Suero Fernández scores with a left-footed shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Alcazar Moreno comes on for Agustin Sienra.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Israel Suero Fernández comes on for Adam Jakobsen.
66
Update Update
Aleix Garrido replaces Marco Moreno.
66
Update Update
Jon Bautista comes on for Javier Marton.
64
Attempt Attempt
Jose Corpas takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Brian Cipenga takes a left-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Javier Marton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jose Corpas takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
55
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava's left-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Malcom Adu's right-footed shot is blocked.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alex Calatrava scores, making it 1-0.
43
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot and scores.
39
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Santiago's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Adam Jakobsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Benat Gerenabarrena takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Alex Calatrava's left-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
16
Update Update
Javier Marton takes a header, but it misses the target.
10
Attempt Attempt
Jose Corpas takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Adam Jakobsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Camara Ousmane takes a shot with his head, but it misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Santiago takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Castellón claimed a narrow 2-1 success against SD Eibar after establishing a 1-0 advantage by halftime. The home team controlled slightly more possession yet faced a stronger opponent on paper. A second-half goal extended the lead before the visitors responded with a late reply. Efficiency metrics held steady without notable shifts and market signals matched the final standings. Absence of disciplinary incidents kept the contest free from external distortions. The minimal deviation observed underscored a result that followed logical progression from opening exchanges. Overall the performance highlighted Castellón capitalizing on early momentum while SD Eibar struggled to overturn the deficit despite late pressure.

Castellón vs SD Eibar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.