Ajax vs FC Groningen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Kras Stadion Thu, 21 May - 4:45 PM
Eredivisie
Ajax AJA
2 Winner 0
FC Groningen GRO
Full Time Thu, 21 May 4:45 PM
Semi Finals
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Ajax secured a 2-0 victory over FC Groningen in a match that highlighted the home side's dominance throughout the ninety minutes. The first half concluded with Ajax leading 1-0 after an efficient opening period that set the tone for the contest. Possession statistics reflected Ajax controlling 62 percent of the ball compared to FC Groningen's 38 percent, allowing the stronger team to dictate play and limit clear opportunities for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either side, maintaining a standard flow without disciplinary interruptions. The second half saw Ajax extend their advantage to the final 2-0 scoreline through sustained pressure and clinical finishing. This result aligned with the pre-match expectations for the favored side, showcasing consistent performance from start to finish. The absence of major disruptions contributed to a straightforward encounter focused on tactical execution and team structure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ajax recorded a significant structural deviation of 49.5 percent in their performance metrics during the 2-0 win.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's established patterns across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to the absence of expected goals data in the match records.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome proved aligned with pre-match projections for the home side's success.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not assessed because relevant data points remained unavailable after the match.
  • Event impact: Key events produced a 2-0 result with Ajax holding a 1-0 advantage at the halftime interval.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred for either team, eliminating any potential distortion from disciplinary measures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Nagtegaal

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Koopman

1st Assistant

Netherlands

J. Westhof

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

S. Teuben

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.4
Yellow cards / match 2.64
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
VS
FC Groningen D. Lukkien
D. Lukkien
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 D
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 L
PSV Rank: 86 D
NAC Breda Rank: 57 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 54 W
FC Twente Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: 54 W
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 W
Excelsior Rank: 61 L
Feyenoord Rank: 77 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
Telstar Rank: 64 W
29
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
29 - 5 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ajax
50.54%
Draw
25.37%
Away FC Groningen
24.08%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ajax
-47.35%
Draw
+23.45%
FC Groningen
+23.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.5
66.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ajax
FC Groningen
Power Score
76.5
66.75
League Position
5
9
Global Rank
96
285

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Groningen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ajax FC Groningen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Groningen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Groningen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.69
17.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.50
21.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ajax +0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Groningen -0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
FC Groningen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Groningen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ajax FC Groningen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ajax FC Groningen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
FC Groningen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ajax
vs
FC Groningen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ajax FC Groningen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ajax 0.41
FC Groningen 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ajax FC Groningen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ajax 0.00
FC Groningen 0.07
Ajax
FC Groningen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AJA had peak pressure around 80'.
  • AJA started the game with stronger pressure.
AJA Pressure GRO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AJA reached the top pressure at 80' (82.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ajax AJA Home
42 matches
FC Groningen GRO Away
Match Record
29
Wins
8
5
Draws
5
8
Losses
29
Goals
84
Goals Scored
40
40
Goals Conceded
84
+44
Goal Difference
-44

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:01:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Paes
Netherlands
26 M. Paes
A. Gaaei
Denmark
3 A. Gaaei
A. Bouwman
Netherlands
30 A. Bouwman
Y. Baas
Netherlands
15 Y. Baas
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
D. Klaassen
Substitution
Netherlands
18 D. Klaassen
J. Mokio
Belgium
24 J. Mokio
S. Steur
Substitution
Netherlands
48 S. Steur
S. Berghuis
Substitution
Netherlands
23 S. Berghuis
W. Weghorst
Substitution
Netherlands
25 W. Weghorst
M. Godts
Belgium
11 M. Godts
Pitch
E. Vaessen
Netherlands
1 E. Vaessen
M. Peersman
Substitution
Belgium
43 M. Peersman
D. Janse
Netherlands
4 D. Janse
T. Blokzijl
Netherlands
3 T. Blokzijl
M. Rente
Germany
5 M. Rente
T. de Jonge
Netherlands
8 T. de Jonge
T. Land
Substitution
Netherlands
18 T. Land
J. Schreuders
Netherlands
14 J. Schreuders
D. van der Werff
Substitution
17 D. van der Werff
T. Hearnes
Substitution
Norway
7 T. Hearnes
T. van Bergen
Substitution
Netherlands
26 T. van Bergen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 21, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Semi Finals
Stadium :
Kras Stadion
Capacity :
7384
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Erik Koopman
Marc Nagtegaal
Joris Westhof
Stan Teuben

Statistics

Possession
AJA
59%
GRO
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 2
29 Dangerous attacks 33
62 Possession 38
4 Corners 0
17 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

10 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 0
6 Goal Kicks 9
19 Throwins 14
24 Dribble Attempts 14
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
54 Ball Safe 38
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

86 Attacks 128
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

66 Long Passes 44
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
29 Successful Long Passes 16
448 Successful Passes 257
82 Successful Passes Percentage 74
546 Passes 345
12 Key Passes 5

Defensive

9 Interceptions 14
1 Saves 3
17 Tackles 20

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 6
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 17
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
30
Aaron Bouwman
Aaron Bouwman Defender
18
Davy Klaassen
Davy Klaassen Midfielder
32
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Defender84'
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur Midfielder
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer
Midfielder62'
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7
Maher Carrizo
Maher Carrizo
Attacker71'
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg
Attacker71'
Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

1
Etienne Vaessen
Etienne Vaessen Goalkeeper
3
Thijmen Blokzijl
Thijmen Blokzijl Defender
4
Dies Janse
Dies Janse Defender
5
Marco Rente
Marco Rente Defender
43
Marvin Peersman
Marvin Peersman Defender
2
Wouter Prins
Wouter Prins
Defender67'
7
Travis Hernes
Travis Hernes Midfielder
34
Ryan Metu
Ryan Metu
Attacker67'
8
Tika de Jonge
Tika de Jonge Midfielder
14
Jorg Schreuders
Jorg Schreuders Midfielder
17
David van der Werff
David van der Werff Midfielder
20
Mats Seuntjens
Mats Seuntjens
Midfielder67'
18
Tygo Land
Tygo Land Midfielder
27
Rui Mendes
Rui Mendes
Attacker77'
26
Thom van Bergen
Thom van Bergen Attacker
9
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Attacker32'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Mats Seuntjens
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Takehiro Tomiyasu → Davy Klaassen
9th Substitution
84'
77'
Event
Rui Mendes → Tygo Land
8th Substitution
Event
Maher Carrizo → Steven Berghuis
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Kasper Dolberg → Wout Weghorst 
7th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Brynjólfur Willumsson
Goal disallowed
67'
Event
Ryan Metu → Travis Hernes
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Mats Seuntjens → David van der Werff
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Wouter Prins → Marvin Peersman
4th Substitution
Event
Mika Godts
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Youri Regeer → Sean Steur
2nd Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Dies Janse
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jorthy Mokio
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Marvin Peersman
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Brynjólfur Willumsson → Thom van Bergen
1st Substitution
Event
Davy Klaassen
Header / 1st Goal
24'

Match Commentary

87
Update Update
Foul committed by Anton Gaaei of Ajax.
86
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Brynjólfur Willumsson of FC Groningen takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Maarten Paes of Ajax. The assist was provided by Rui Mendes.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Rosa of Ajax.
86
Update Update
Jorg Schreuders from FC Groningen won a free kick in defense.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Davy Klaassen due to injury.
83
Update Update
Fouled by Mats Seuntjens of FC Groningen.
83
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Marco Rente from FC Groningen.
80
Attempt Attempt
Mats Seuntjens from FC Groningen missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box to the left. Thijmen Blokzijl provided the assist.
78
Update Update
Davy Klaassen of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Dies Janse of FC Groningen.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Rui Mendes replaces Tygo Land.
76
Corner Corner
Aaron Bouwman from Ajax had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the six-yard box over the bar. The assist came from Mika Godts, who delivered a cross following a corner.
76
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax won a free kick in defense.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Marco Rente of FC Groningen.
75
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Etienne Vaessen concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Mika Godts of Ajax takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Etienne Vaessen of FC Groningen. The assist came from Kasper Dolberg.
72
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Maher Carrizo from Ajax had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was close but went to the left. The assist came from Mika Godts after a fast break.
72
Update Update
Tygo Land from FC Groningen won a free kick in the attacking area.
72
Update Update
Davy Klaassen from Ajax committed a foul.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Maher Carrizo replaces Steven Berghuis.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Kasper Dolberg replaces Wout Weghorst.
70
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal after Ajax leads FC Groningen 2-0.
68
Update Update
Offside called against FC Groningen. Brynjólfur Willumsson is in an offside position.
68
Update Update
Goal overturned by VAR! Brynjólfur Willumsson scores for FC Groningen, but the goal is disallowed after a VAR review.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Ryan Metu replaces Travis Hernes.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Wouter Prins replaces Marvin Peersman.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Mats Seuntjens replaces David van der Werff.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Youri Regeer of Ajax.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mika Godts of Ajax receives a yellow card.
64
Update Update
David van der Werff from FC Groningen won a free kick in the attacking area.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Youri Regeer replaces Sean Steur due to injury.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dies Janse of FC Groningen receives a yellow card for a foul.
61
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sean Steur from Ajax.
60
Update Update
Steven Berghuis of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by David van der Werff of FC Groningen.
59
Update Update
Handball by Jorg Schreuders of FC Groningen.
59
Attempt Attempt
David van der Werff's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Tygo Land.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax lead 2-0 against FC Groningen as Jorthy Mokio scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the left corner.
55
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. Sean Steur provided the assist.
54
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Tygo Land.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorthy Mokio of Ajax.
53
Update Update
Jorg Schreuders of FC Groningen won a free kick on the left wing.
50
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio's header from close range is blocked. The assist came from Mika Godts' cross.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after Tika de Jonge concedes.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after Thijmen Blokzijl concedes.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Aaron Bouwman of Ajax.
47
Update Update
David van der Werff from FC Groningen was awarded a free kick in defense.
45
Corner Corner
Wout Weghorst from Ajax attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved in the left corner by Etienne Vaessen from FC Groningen. The assist comes from Anton Gaaei.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Ajax leading FC Groningen 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Ajax leading FC Groningen 1-0.
42
Update Update
Offside called against Ajax. Wout Weghorst is offside.
41
Update Update
Offside called against Ajax. Wout Weghorst is offside.
40
Update Update
Fouled by Marvin Peersman of FC Groningen.
40
Update Update
Steven Berghuis of Ajax won a free kick in the attacking half.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marvin Peersman of FC Groningen receives a yellow card.
39
Update Update
Mika Godts of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
39
Update Update
Fouled by Marvin Peersman of FC Groningen.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Anton Gaaei of Ajax.
37
Update Update
Jorg Schreuders of FC Groningen won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Thijmen Blokzijl from FC Groningen committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Wout Weghorst of Ajax won a free kick in the attacking area.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Dies Janse of FC Groningen.
35
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax won a free kick in defense.
34
Attempt Attempt
Sean Steur's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Anton Gaaei provided the assist.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Marvin Peersman of FC Groningen.
33
Update Update
Steven Berghuis of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax earned a free kick on the right wing.
32
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Brynjólfur Willumsson replaces Thom van Bergen due to injury.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Dies Janse of FC Groningen.
30
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Thom van Bergen of FC Groningen.
28
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio from Ajax committed a foul.
28
Update Update
Tika de Jonge from FC Groningen won a free kick in defense.
27
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Dies Janse concedes.
27
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Mika Godts provided the assist.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax leads 1-0 against FC Groningen. Davy Klaassen scores with a header from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Mika Godts' cross.
19
Update Update
Offside called against Ajax. Mika Godts is offside.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorg Schreuders of FC Groningen.
18
Update Update
Davy Klaassen from Ajax won a free kick on the right wing.
16
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen.
14
Update Update
Mika Godts is flagged offside for Ajax.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Aaron Bouwman of Ajax.
12
Update Update
Thom van Bergen of FC Groningen won a free kick in an attacking position.
10
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst from Ajax attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by FC Groningen's goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen, positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Sean Steur.
10
Update Update
Thom van Bergen of FC Groningen is caught offside.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Steven Berghuis of Ajax shoots with his left foot from outside the box, and it's very close to the goal. The assist came from Davy Klaassen.
5
Update Update
Wout Weghorst of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
5
Update Update
Thijmen Blokzijl from FC Groningen commits a foul.

CONCLUSION

Ajax completed a controlled performance to defeat FC Groningen by 2-0, maintaining their lead from the 1-0 halftime position without conceding ground. The home team's possession advantage and structured approach limited the visitors' influence while capitalizing on scoring chances. With no red cards affecting proceedings, the match progressed evenly in terms of player discipline and overall rhythm. This outcome reinforced Ajax's status as the stronger side through steady adjustments in the second half. FC Groningen struggled to create meaningful threats despite their efforts to respond after the break. The result stands as a clear demonstration of effective game management and tactical consistency from the winners. Observers noted the clean execution that avoided unnecessary complications throughout the fixture.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.