Tromsø vs Aalesund Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Alfheim Stadion Mon, 25 May - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Tromsø Tromsø
1 – 1
Aalesund Aalesund
Full Time Mon, 25 May 3:00 PM
Round 10 Regular Season
Sander Innvær - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Mathias Christensen - 57'

CONTEXT

Tromsø welcomed Aalesund for a league encounter that finished level at 1-1. The home side opened the scoring before the interval to lead 1-0 at halftime and maintained 62 percent possession across the ninety minutes. Despite that territorial control Tromsø could not add to their advantage. Aalesund equalized after the break to claim a share of the points. No red cards were shown to either team so both sides completed the contest with eleven players. Pre-match assessments had identified Tromsø as the stronger side yet the final outcome was a draw. The moderate deviation recorded for Tromsø reflected their inability to turn dominance into a win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Tromsø recorded a moderate deviation from pre-match expectations during the fixture.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall match patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals information was unavailable to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals metrics could not be reviewed owing to absent data.
  • Event impact: Aalesund's second-half goal produced the 1-1 draw.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left game flow undistorted throughout.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Eskås

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Engan

1st Assistant

Norway

I. Bashevkin

2nd Assistant

Norway

E. Bertheussen

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.52
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.24
Tromsø J. Vik
J. Vik
VS
Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 L
Molde Rank: 67 W
Start Rank: 49 D
Brann Rank: 68 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brann Rank: 70 W
Rosenborg Rank: 62 W
Sandefjord Rank: 62 L
Kristiansund Rank: 56 D
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 L
KFUM Rank: 57 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 7 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Tromsø
4.93%
Draw
91.84%
Away Aalesund
3.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Tromsø
-2.32%
Draw
+4.63%
Aalesund
-2.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.12
45.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Tromsø
Aalesund
Power Score
68.12
45.86
League Position
2
14
Global Rank
257
876

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Tromsø — Opponent-weighted form score
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Tromsø Aalesund

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Tromsø

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aalesund
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.73
43.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.68
30.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Tromsø -1.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Aalesund +1.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Aalesund
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Tromsø ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aalesund
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Tromsø Aalesund
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Tromsø Aalesund
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Tromsø
Aalesund
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Tromsø
vs
Aalesund
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Tromsø Aalesund
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Tromsø 0.26
Aalesund 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Tromsø Aalesund
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Tromsø 0.03
Aalesund 0.02
Tromsø
Aalesund
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Tromsø had peak pressure around 6'.
  • Tromsø started the game with stronger pressure.
Tromsø Pressure Aalesund Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Tromsø reached the top pressure at 6' (84.73).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Tromsø Tromsø Home
26 matches
Aalesund Aalesund Away
Match Record
10
Wins
9
7
Draws
7
9
Losses
10
Goals
32
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
32
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-26T00:01:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
J. Haugaard
Denmark
1 J. Haugaard
L. Jean Cornic
Norway
2 L. Jean Cornic
V. Skjærvik
Norway
4 V. Skjærvik
T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
Norway
21 T. Kvalvågnes Guddal
A. Kinteh
25 A. Kinteh
S. Håvik Innvær
Norway
37 S. Håvik Innvær
D. Edvardsson
Sweden
5 D. Edvardsson
R. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
11 (C) R. Yttergård Jenssen
J. Hjertø-Dahl
Substitution
Norway
6 J. Hjertø-Dahl
T. Engseth Nyhammer
Substitution
Norway
10 T. Engseth Nyhammer
H. Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 H. Larsen
Pitch
K. Klaesson
Norway
1 K. Klaesson
U. Nwokoma
Nigeria
14 U. Nwokoma
U. Valderhaug Syversen
Norway
25 U. Valderhaug Syversen
A. Hammer Kjelsen
Norway
5 (C) A. Hammer Kjelsen
S. Haram
Norway
4 S. Haram
M. Andersen
Substitution
Norway
2 M. Andersen
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 H. Molvær Melland
E. Hagen
Norway
18 E. Hagen
M. Christensen
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
E. Hjertager Osenbroch
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Hjertager Osenbroch
M. Haagensen Reed
Substitution
27 M. Haagensen Reed

General Information

Date & Time :
May 25, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 10 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Alfheim Stadion
Capacity :
6687
Attendance :
5249
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Espen Eskås
Jan Erik Engan
Isaak Bashevkin
Egil Bertheussen

Statistics

Possession
Tromsø
60%
Aalesund
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
10 Shots 12
61 Dangerous attacks 32
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 7
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
9 Throwins 17
7 Successful Dribbles 10
84 Ball Safe 71
9 Goal Attempts 6
3 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0

Attacking

131 Attacks 88
4 Counter Attacks 5

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 81
505 Successful Passes 273
10 Key Passes 11
589 Passes 340

Defensive

8 Interceptions 8
48 Duels Won 45
2 Saves 4
20 Tackles 13

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

1
Jakob Haugaard
Jakob Haugaard Goalkeeper
6.59
2
Leo Cornic
Leo Cornic Defender
6.86
4
Vetle Skjærvik
Vetle Skjærvik Defender
7.4
21
Tobias Guddal
Tobias Guddal Defender
7.37
25
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh
Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh Defender
7.29
37
Sander Innvær
Sander Innvær Defender
7.55
5
David Edvardsson
David Edvardsson Midfielder
7.1
6
Jens Hjertø-Dahl
Jens Hjertø-Dahl Midfielder
6.9
14
Sigurd Prestmo
Sigurd Prestmo
Attacker85'
6.71
11
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen (C) Midfielder
7.3
10
Troy Engseth Nyhammer
Troy Engseth Nyhammer Attacker
6.61
7
Lars Olden Larsen
Lars Olden Larsen
Attacker66'
6.44
22
Heine Åsen Larsen
Heine Åsen Larsen Attacker
6.88
9
Daniel Braut
Daniel Braut
Attacker66'
6.69
Referee : Espen Eskås

Starting XI ▼

1
Kristoffer Klaesson
Kristoffer Klaesson Goalkeeper
7.52
2
Marius Andresen
Marius Andresen Defender
6.92
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø
Midfielder67'
6.78
4
Simen Haram
Simen Haram Defender
6.78
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen (C) Defender
6.73
14
Uba Charles
Uba Charles Defender
5.97
25
Ulrik Syversen
Ulrik Syversen Defender
6.85
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland Midfielder
6.89
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
Hakon Butli Hammer
Midfielder75'
6.47
18
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Midfielder
6.97
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
7.44
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch Attacker
7.53
22
E. Engqvist
E. Engqvist
Defender90+3'
27
Marcus Haagensen Reed
Marcus Haagensen Reed Attacker
6.34
20
I. Djantou
I. Djantou
Attacker67'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
E. Engqvist → Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
7th Substitution
Event
Sigurd Prestmo → Jens Hjertø-Dahl
6th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Ulrik Syversen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Hakon Butli Hammer → Henrik Melland
5th Substitution
67'
Event
I. Djantou → Marcus Haagensen Reed
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Kristoffer Nessø → Marius Andresen
4th Substitution
Event
Lars Olden Larsen → Troy Engseth Nyhammer
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Daniel Braut → Heine Åsen Larsen
1st Substitution
66'
57'
Event
Mathias Christensen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Sander Innvær
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Marcus Haagensen Reed
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Sander Innvær
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Tromsø and Aalesund reflected a contest in which early promise from the home side was matched by a resilient response from the visitors. Tromsø controlled the majority of possession and led at the interval yet failed to extend their advantage. Aalesund capitalised on second-half opportunities to level the score and secure a valuable point on the road. With full complements of players on the pitch for the entire match both teams were able to implement their tactical plans without interruption. The moderate deviation associated with Tromsø suggests scope for greater clinical finishing in future fixtures while overall efficiency stayed consistent with observed patterns.

Tromsø vs Aalesund preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.